What if Julius Caesar was not assassinated?

Would he have declared himself an Emperor? Would the Roman Republic still have transitioned into an Empire?

Augustus probably would still become Emperor since he was selected as Caesar's heir, and not much different IMO.

What could have changed if Caesar actually lived after 44 BC?
 
He couldn't have declared himself emperor because he didn't know what that is. But he would very likely have tried to turn the position of dictator perpetuus (his chosen title) into a semi-royal one. Inheritance would be a problematic proposition, though, on the one hand because of Caesarion (who would be unacceptable to the Roman aristocracy, but still hold greater legitimacy as Caesar's son than Octavius) and on the other because Rome has not had the experience of a long, stable monarchic reign to look back on even if Caesar lives to a ripe old age.

And then there is the campaigning. Caesar spent a lot of time away from Rome fighting wars, which is a good pattern for an ambitious Republican magistrate, but does little for you if you want to keep a tight hold of the centre of power. He may actually defeat Parthia (though that's not a given) and still lose Rome to his opponents if he stays away too long, unable to give out goodies to his allies. Of course if he manages a short and decisive victory, it would boost his standing enormously. But winning all his other wars didn't prevent him from being assassinated ITTL, one more might not be enough. In the mewantime, this does the provinces no favours at all and will continue to stunt economic development while producing veterans that need to be settled somewhere - preferably in Italy. He's hurting his own cause here.

I'm not confident that a Caesarian monarchy would be a stable system. Octavius was politically brilliant and lucky. Caesar was neither.
 
I think Augustus recognized one important fact that Caesar didn't (and I might wager couldn't since Augustus needed Caesar's example to figure it out) figure out himself: The senators were still not going to accept someone who makes it painfully obvious that he is the one in control and that the senate has no power-they might accept the reality of it, but not the appearances of it.

And that's why I think Caesar might ultimately still end up assassinated at some point. Augustus allowed the senate to pretend they still had power. He masked his power behind a veneer of constitutionality and republicanism. Caesar was just straight out and out autocratic and made no attempt hiding it. Augustus lived long because he cared about appearances and recognized he had to accomodate the bona somehow. Caesar was murdered because he did the opposite.
 
This is the usual view, Sly. Most scholars stick to it, though it is wrong.

There were many murder attempts against Augustus.

The fact is that August was much more careful than Caesar and always had his praetorian guards. And he has his net work of informers (lets's say his secret service) to find plots.

That's why so many people wrongly concluded that the point was open against hidden monarchy.

The fact is that Augustus' monarchy, though supposedly hidden, was not softer than Caesar's. Augustus did not have Caesar's clemency. But he scared everybody with threats of executions because everybody knew, since the proscriptions, that Augustus had no mercy.
 
Caesar was an old man, when he became dictator, and there are some hints, that his health was already not the best.

As already mentioned, the parthian empire is far away and communication is an issue these times. Caesar can beat the parthians and revenge Crassus pretty fast. Actually Augustus did this too, but much more clever with negotiations and a lot of propaganda after he got the eagles back.

Conquering the parthian empire is a fully different challenge. Mesopotamia alone is not enough, as Trajan and Hadrian recognized the hard way. Actually Mesopotamia was almost lost again, when Trajan moved home and died. You need to conquer at least Media and Persis too, in order to deprive the parthian empire from its economic base. And this will become a very long war. And without proscriptions, there are still a lot of republican aristocrats alive in Rome. And some of them command legions.

Sometimes I think that Caesar tried to escape from Rome with this campaign. As Augustus recognized clearly, after a won civil war, the reconstitution of the republic was the most important task. Obviously Caesar shied away from this challenge or underestimated it dramatically.

Augustus was a young man, and he was lucky to survive and grow very old, even if his health was never the best. He was already near to death in 23 BC. It would be an interesting POD, if he dies and Agrippa with young Marcellus, Tiberius and Drusus have to consolidate the empire. Marcellus dies shortly later by natural causes. So there is just Agrippa , who is not a native member of the high aristocracy, and a bunch of roman aristocrats.
 
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I read that Caesar had a illness that led to lose of body control and to avoid a long and embarrassing death he basically let himself be killed.
 
Caesar was an old man, when he became dictator, and there are some hints, that his health was already not the best.

As already mentioned, the parthian empire is far away and communication is an issue these times. Caesar can beat the parthians and revenge Crassus pretty fast. Actually Augustus did this too, but much more clever with negotiations and a lot of propaganda after he got the eagles back.

Conquering the parthian empire is a fully different challenge. Mesopotamia alone is not enough, as Trajan and Hadrian recognized the hard way. Actually Mesopotamia was almost lost again, when Trajan moved home and died. You need to conquer at least Media and Persis too, in order to deprive the parthian empire from its economic base. And this will become a very long war. And without proscriptions, there are still a lot of republican aristocrats alive in Rome. And some of them command legions.

Sometimes I think that Caesar tried to escape from Rome with this campaign. As Augustus recognized clearly, after a won civil war, the reconstitution of the republic was the most important task. Obviously Caesar shied away from this challenge or underestimated it dramatically.

Augustus was a young man, and he was lucky to survive and grow very old, even if his health was never the best. He was already near to death in 23 BC. It would be an interesting POD, if he dies and Agrippa with young Marcellus, Tiberius and Drusus have to consolidate the empire. Marcellus dies shortly later by natural causes. So there is just Agrippa , who is not a native member of the high aristocracy, and a bunch of roman aristocrats.

Sorry but I disagree again. I know many writers have made theories about Caesar's psychology. All based on the idea that Caesar was following chimeras. But all did nothing but inventing their Caesar of romance.

What is puzzling is that they imagine that when Caesar and Augustus did the same thing, they had opposite purposes.

Caesar did not shy away from Rome. He went for emergencies. There was an emergency in the east. Crassus' disaster at Carrhae and the civil war had dangerously weakened Rome's positions in the east. There was a strategic interest for Rome to reestablish its hold in the east. That's exactly why Anthony, who was the dominant player in the first years of the triumvirate, fought parthians (in the first years through his legate Ventidius Bassus who won the campaign).

Besides, after the civil war, it was a good solution to go for a foreign military campaign if a ruler wanted to heal the wounds of a civil war and if he also wanted not to have his rule antagonize too much people who did not support his regime.

Caesar planned a 3 years campaign in 44. There is absolutely no evidence that he was planning some kind of Alexandrian grand campaign.

In 27, just after he had been granted the title of Augustus, Octavian went for a 3 years campaign in Spain. Almost the same thing.

This an obvious parallel.

Caesar did not either underestimate the difficulties of reestablishing a republic. He said that he knew he was hated by many aristocrats. But he also successfully brought the most ancient and prestigious patrician families to work with him : the last Fabii Maximi, the Aemilii Lepidi, the Valerii and the Claudii, the Servilii (who were some kind of false plebeians) and some Cornelii.

Concerning his health, one can't know. But Augustus had a rather poor health, which did not prevent him from reaching almost the age of 77. Caesar could have died quite quickly and there would have been the problem of succession. But he could also have lived 20 more years.
 
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