What if John Hinckley, Jr., succeeds?

Bush goes ahead with the tax and budget cuts. The party expects it. He engages the Soviets more. There may be and earlier IMF Treaty. He is reelected in the good economic times of 1984. If his Vice President, like his OTL one, does not become popular, Bob Dole is elected in 1988.

Agreed on everything EXCEPT:

The dying nature of the Soviet Gerontocracy was such that these men generally couldn't make any decision beyond when to pee. You needed not only Gorbachev but Gorbachev securely in power before serious diplomacy can begin.
 
Not only would Bush proceed with the Reagan tax cuts (which were by then established GOP policy) but he might actually be a lower-tax president than Reagan--at least during his first term. That is because, unlike Reagan, he would have to worry about cries from the GOP Right that he was "betraying Reagan's legacy" if he supported TEFRA, for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Equity_and_Fiscal_Responsibility_Act_of_1982 (In his second term, he could be more open to tax hikes or at least "revenue enhancements.")
 
My thinking on this has mostly been covered, but just to get it out of the way:
  • Kissinger replaces Haig, and there's less cofrontational rhetoric coming from the White House; this leads to Gorbachev becoming more influential earlier, in turn leading to an earlier end to the Cold War (revolutions sweeping Eastern Europe in 1987, etc).
  • Bush takes the first year largely implementing Reagan's promises; the 1981 Tax Cuts, in this climate, are actually less likely to get scaled back, at least before Bush's second term, meaning deficits may actually be bigger.
  • Meanwhile social issues get, er, complicated: the Religious Right making huge waves agitating against Hollywood following the assassination, leading to all kinds of cultural butterflies (such as Scorsese dying young, more boring pop music in 1983, John Belushi surviving, the Muppets going on hiatus, George Lucas doing better, and Disney doing worse).
  • However, this is in conjunction, though, with a Republican Presidency trying to take a realistic approach to things like the AIDS Crisis (including one infamous episode wherein President Bush takes part of the time in a National Address to talk about condom usage).
 
Top