What if John Hinckley Jr. killed Ronald Reagan?

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What if John Hinckley Jr. killed Ronald Reagan on March 30 1981? What if the assassination was a success? George H. W. Bush would be President, how would he fair? Would he win the 1984 election, if not who would? How would the rest of the 20th century and 21 century be? What you think?
 
Hinckely would died on electric chair for murder on Ronald Reagan
President George Bush has to cleanup mess Haig & Co made by ignoring the Presidential Succession Act.
and get new Vice president. while security for the US President and Vice get increased to extrem.

Jodie Foster will be blamed by tabloids and extremist for Hinckely actions, its likely she left USA for Canada or France exile.

Reagan will be idolized as "the President of 69 days" "who never had chance to fulfill his visions"
but there will be no Reaganomics or Reagan Revolution
Simply Bush consider Reaganomics as Voodoo Economics, either will be a cultural shift

on 1984 elections, even President George Bush and his Vice will win that easy, simply because the Democrat put Walter Mondale as Candidate
Resulting in worst election defeat in history of Democrats and end of Mondale political career

here interesting video on case What if no Ronald Reagan as President ?
 
I once argued in soc.history.what-if that (at least during his first term) Bush might have to be more Reaganite than Reagan!

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So far as the military build-up is concerned (which btw started under Carter though it was accelerated under Reagan) that was not a controversial issue among Republicans. Indeed during the late 1980s Bush actually seems to have been more skeptical than Reagan of whether there had been a real change in the Soviet Union under Gorbachev. The one difference I could see is that Bush would probably put less emphasis on missile defense, and in any event would see it as something for limited purposes--e.g., protection from "rogue states"--rather than as a way to make nuclear weapons obsolete, as Reagan sincerely believed.

As for domestic *economic* conservatism: Bush had long since abandoned his opposition to "voodoo economics" and backed Reagan's tax cuts--which after Reagan's death would pass more easily than in OTL. Of course Bush might later support raising some other taxes to partly make up the revenue shortfall. But so did Reagan! If anything, Bush (at least during his first term) might feel less free to advocate such "revenue enhancements"--unlike Reagan, he would have to worry about facing a conservative primary challenger who would accuse him of betraying Reaganism. So at least in his first term, Bush might be more "Reaganite" than Reagan.

As for domestic *social* conservatism, Bush by 1980 had reversed his formerly pro-choice position on abortion and never looked back. Even if he wanted to, the need to satisfy conservative Republicans would prevent him from doing so. Anyway, it is questionable just what Reagan actually did--other than rhetorically--for social conservatism. Of the three justices he eventually appointed to the Supreme Court (O'Connor, Kennedy and Scalia) only Scalia in the end would be satisfactory to social conservatives. (To be sure, Reagan did try to get Bork on the Court but failed. Whereas Bush succeeded with Thomas.)

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/wwxrbBwZi0s/wJT_2IJQTxsJ
 
on issue of Vice President wich one would best choice in 1981 ?

Minority Leader Robert H. Michel
House Minority Whip Trent Lott
Senator Paul Laxalt
Congressman Jack Kemp
 
How would Iran-Contra go down under Bush? Assuming it still occurs I think he might actually be forced out of office given Reagan only survived it due to his charisma and claiming lack of knowledge (which Bush, as a former CIA director, wouldn’t be able to credibley claim).
 
1. Bush wins in 1984 because inflation will come to halt as it did in OTL because of factors with petroleum and housing.
2. Iran-Contra might not happen in ATL, as Reagan governed from the gut while Bush will have respect for his CIA background.
3. The highest marginal tax rate would probably freeze at 50%, no lower. (It was 70% for unearned income in 1980.)
 
on issue of Vice President wich one would best choice in 1981 ?

Minority Leader Robert H. Michel
House Minority Whip Trent Lott
Senator Paul Laxalt
Congressman Jack Kemp
Paul Laxalt. Bush being more moderate than Reagan would require him to select a social conservative to maintain their support. Michel and Lott's jobs are too important to trade for vice president. Jack Kemp was a social moderate.

Presidential Election of 1988 becomes a toss up between Laxalt and whoever ATL's Democratic nominee would be.
 
Presidential Election of 1988 becomes a toss up between Laxalt and whoever ATL's Democratic nominee would be.
That would be democrats Michael S. Dukakis with Lloyd M. Bentsen as running mate.

good question is will Paul Laxalt be nominated as president candidate on Republican Party presidential primaries in 88 or will he sideline and replace by someone else ?
not the first time that happen at Republicans (see case Theodore Roosevelt vs William Taft)
 
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