What if Joe Jr. instead of JFK?

Suppose Joseph Kennedy Jr. survives WW2 instead of his younger brother JFK. It's known that Joe Sr. had intended that Jr. be the one aimed for high office, and JFK became the family up and comer by default after his brother's death.

So, if Joe Jr. survived the war instead how would his political arc have differed from JFK's in OTL? Would e have been able to wield the same sort of charisma and political skills as his younger brother? Could he have ended up in the White House as well?
 
William G. Carleton (1901-1982), a University of Florida historian and political scientist (and occasional speechwriter for Joseph Kennedy, Sr.) expressed some doubt that Joe, Jr. would ever have become president: "If Joe, Jr. had lived, John would not have gone into politics at all. This is not to say that Joe, Jr. would have 'made the grade' in high politics, as believers in the Kennedy magic now assume. Joe, Jr. was an extrovert; he was obviously the politcal 'type'. John's mind was more penetrating and dispassionate, and he did not fit the stereotype of the politician, particularly the Irish politician. What endeared John to the status-seeking minorities was that he appeared more the scion of an old aristocratic Yankee family than the authentic scions themselves. Had Joe, Jr. lived, the Kennedy family in all probability would never have had a President at all. (In part, this evaluaton of Joe, Jr. and John is derived from personal observation. I recall vividly an evening, April 4, 1941, when I was a guest at the Kennedy home in Palm Beach. Following dinner, the entire family, including the younger children, assembled in the drawing-room for a discussion of public affairs...Mr. Kennedy, John, and I were the chief participants, although Mrs. Kennedy and Joe, Jr. often broke in with comments. It was clear to me that John had a far better historical and political mind than his father or his elder brother; indeed, that John's capacity for seeing current events in historical perspective and projecting historical trends into the future was unusual...)"

https://books.google.com/books?id=nrFlAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA203

The fact that Jack was more bookish (no doubt illness gave him more time to read) and Joe, Jr. more extroverted and closer to the stereotype of the Irish politician may explain why Jack appealed more than Joe, Jr. ever could to intellectuals like Carleton, but it hardly proves that Joe would have been less attractive to the electorate as a whole. I think one reason for Carleton's admiration for Jack is that Jack, unlike Joe, Jr., was edging away from his father's isolationism at an early stage. Yet Joe, Jr.too might eventually have disassociated himself from some of his father's more controversial positions had he lived. Joe, Jr. might have been tempted, for example, if he were elected to the Senate, to oppose the censure of Joe McCarthy (a hero both to his father and to many of his Boston Irish constituents) but he would have to realize that this would wreck his chance of getting the Democratic presidential nomination. (Jack of course managed to avoid the vote due to back surgery, an option which presumably would not be available to Joe...) If Robert F. Kennedy could morph from a McCarthy aide to a liberal Senator from New York, one should not assume Joe, Jr. woud always retain his America-First politics of the early 1940's.

Of course, even if one assumes that Joe, Jr. would be ideologically acceptable to Democrats in 1960, it doesn't necessarily follow that he would have won the presidency. JFK once remarked that Joe, unlike him, would have succeeded in becoming Stevenson's running mate in 1956. But then, JFK added, Ike-Nixon would have overwhelmingly defeated Stevenson-Kennedy--"And today Joe's political career would be in shambles..." http://books.google.com/books?id=nsOlkJ7yVhMC&pg=PA182 Indeed, JFK's path to the presidency was based on so many contingencies (some of them seemingly insignificant) that it is extremely risky to assume that a different Kennedy (whether a surviving Joe, Jr. or any of the other brothers) would have been elected if JFK hadn't run.
 
William G. Carleton (1901-1982), a University of Florida historian and political scientist (and occasional speechwriter for Joseph Kennedy, Sr.) expressed some doubt that Joe, Jr. would ever have become president: "If Joe, Jr. had lived, John would not have gone into politics at all. This is not to say that Joe, Jr. would have 'made the grade' in high politics, as believers in the Kennedy magic now assume. Joe, Jr. was an extrovert; he was obviously the politcal 'type'. John's mind was more penetrating and dispassionate, and he did not fit the stereotype of the politician, particularly the Irish politician. What endeared John to the status-seeking minorities was that he appeared more the scion of an old aristocratic Yankee family than the authentic scions themselves. Had Joe, Jr. lived, the Kennedy family in all probability would never have had a President at all. (In part, this evaluaton of Joe, Jr. and John is derived from personal observation. I recall vividly an evening, April 4, 1941, when I was a guest at the Kennedy home in Palm Beach. Following dinner, the entire family, including the younger children, assembled in the drawing-room for a discussion of public affairs...Mr. Kennedy, John, and I were the chief participants, although Mrs. Kennedy and Joe, Jr. often broke in with comments. It was clear to me that John had a far better historical and political mind than his father or his elder brother; indeed, that John's capacity for seeing current events in historical perspective and projecting historical trends into the future was unusual...)"

https://books.google.com/books?id=nrFlAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA203

The fact that Jack was more bookish (no doubt illness gave him more time to read) and Joe, Jr. more extroverted and closer to the stereotype of the Irish politician may explain why Jack appealed more than Joe, Jr. ever could to intellectuals like Carleton, but it hardly proves that Joe would have been less attractive to the electorate as a whole. I think one reason for Carleton's admiration for Jack is that Jack, unlike Joe, Jr., was edging away from his father's isolationism at an early stage. Yet Joe, Jr.too might eventually have disassociated himself from some of his father's more controversial positions had he lived. Joe, Jr. might have been tempted, for example, if he were elected to the Senate, to oppose the censure of Joe McCarthy (a hero both to his father and to many of his Boston Irish constituents) but he would have to realize that this would wreck his chance of getting the Democratic presidential nomination. (Jack of course managed to avoid the vote due to back surgery, an option which presumably would not be available to Joe...) If Robert F. Kennedy could morph from a McCarthy aide to a liberal Senator from New York, one should not assume Joe, Jr. woud always retain his America-First politics of the early 1940's.

Of course, even if one assumes that Joe, Jr. would be ideologically acceptable to Democrats in 1960, it doesn't necessarily follow that he would have won the presidency. JFK once remarked that Joe, unlike him, would have succeeded in becoming Stevenson's running mate in 1956. But then, JFK added, Ike-Nixon would have overwhelmingly defeated Stevenson-Kennedy--"And today Joe's political career would be in shambles..." http://books.google.com/books?id=nsOlkJ7yVhMC&pg=PA182 Indeed, JFK's path to the presidency was based on so many contingencies (some of them seemingly insignificant) that it is extremely risky to assume that a different Kennedy (whether a surviving Joe, Jr. or any of the other brothers) would have been elected if JFK hadn't run.

The fact that Joe Jr had opposed FDR's bid for a third term at the 1940 Democratic Convention would certainly be a liability in 1960. But going back even further, who's to say that Joe Jr would've beaten Lodge in 1952? And JFK himself said that Joe Jr's career would've been ruined by being Stevenson's running mate in 1956. In light of this, and seeing just how close 1960 was, I have a hard time believing that Joe Jr would've beaten Nixon.
 
I've always viewed Joe Jr. is something of a lunkhead: the popular one, but also someone who never had an opinion his father didn't share, and I view him as superficial personality. He had no struggles. He had nothing to serve as the fire to create a deep soul. My feeling on him is that he was more just the popular jock type who has everything go well in his life and is the most popular person, and never spent a sleepless moment on the pain of the world nor considered any of the deeper question of life. Joe Jr. never had an epiphany about anything, in my estimation. Jackie Kennedy never met him, but did hear about him, and she felt he would have maybe become a governor, but never a president. And even so, I think it would be more because his dad thought he should be president, so he thought naturally he should be president.

That's just my opinion, though.
 
The big problem with being a mimic of his father is antisemitism.

https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/697

Like his father, Joe Jr. admired Adolf Hitler. Young Joe had come away impressed by Nazi rhetoric after traveling in Germany as a student in 1934. Writing at the time, Joe applauded Hitler's insight in realizing the German people's "need of a common enemy, someone of whom to make the goat. Someone, by whose riddance the Germans would feel they had cast out the cause of their predicament. It was excellent psychology, and it was too bad that it had to be done to the Jews. The dislike of the Jews, however, was well-founded. They were at the heads of all big business, in law etc. It is all to their credit for them to get so far, but their methods had been quite unscrupulous ... the lawyers and prominent judges were Jews, and if you had a case against a Jew, you were nearly always sure to lose it. ... As far as the brutality is concerned, it must have been necessary to use some ...."
 
Majorly messed up on the part of both Joe, Sr. and Jr.

Look, any two-bit carnival barker can lead by whipping up hatred. What takes actual skills is to lead by positive methods toward positive goals.

Exactly the kind of leadership that JFK provided as President.
 

Deleted member 94680

So it’s a given that with Joe Jr. on the scene JFK wouldn’t get a look in?

No chance of Joe Jr. getting Daddy’s favour, failing to gain a Presidential nomination and JFK being wheeled out to give Team Kennedy a second chance at the White House?

How would Americans react to (Vice) President Kennedy, Senator Kennedy and Congressman Kennedy (assuming RFK gets the nod as well) all being in politics at the same time?

If Joe Jr. fails in gaining a Presidential nomination (by no means a certainty) even if he becomes a Senator (highly possible given Daddy’s propensity for ballot box stuffing), what next? “That Senator that ran that time” or Governor Kennedy?
 
So it’s a given that with Joe Jr. on the scene JFK wouldn’t get a look in?

No chance of Joe Jr. getting Daddy’s favour, failing to gain a Presidential nomination and JFK being wheeled out to give Team Kennedy a second chance at the White House?

How would Americans react to (Vice) President Kennedy, Senator Kennedy and Congressman Kennedy (assuming RFK gets the nod as well) all being in politics at the same time?

If Joe Jr. fails in gaining a Presidential nomination (by no means a certainty) even if he becomes a Senator (highly possible given Daddy’s propensity for ballot box stuffing), what next? “That Senator that ran that time” or Governor Kennedy?

By 1960 JFK would probably be an established reporter without any background in electoral politics. He could run for office in MA if he wanted to (maybe Governor in 1962, and after that run for President in 1968) but I think he'd rather stay in journalism if Joe loses the Vice-Presidency or Presidency.
 
So it’s a given that with Joe Jr. on the scene JFK wouldn’t get a look in?

He wouldn't get a look in. With Joe Junior having been a failed presidential candidate (or something even more minor), there will be few people looking to see his less prominent younger brother. With the Kennedies not having any of their dynastic lustre, few people will be looking to give another Kennedy a shot.
 
I do wonder sometimes if JFK's public personality was not emulating his brother Joe; something of a put on. JFK would shake hands and kiss babies, but at his core, he was something of an introverted intellectual, dispassionately analytical and an academic.
 
I do wonder sometimes if JFK's public personality was not emulating his brother Joe; something of a put on. JFK would shake hands and kiss babies, but at his core, he was something of an introverted intellectual, dispassionately analytical and an academic.

I think JFK was both the extroverted politician and the introverted academic. He genuinely cared about people and wasn't afraid to show it, but he approached politics from a rational and calculating standpoint. That second aspect of his character brought criticism from Eleanor Roosevelt and other liberals who felt Kennedy was unprincipled. Had Joe Jr been the Democratic nominee in 1960 instead of Jack, he would've had his younger brother's charisma but not his forceful intellect. Without that, Joe Jr would probably have lost (albeit narrowly) given how close 1960 was. JFK likely becomes a powerful media figure while RFK is a prominent lawyer. But neither one goes into politics.
 
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