What if Jeb Bush had ran in 2000?

The popular response to this is, "Jeb was always the family's first choice to avenge the old man's defeat, but he lost in Florida in '94 & the rest is history--yet verily he was the capable one."

I don't have any reason to doubt this theory.

(Though the board has a member who loves Karl Rove--fellow in question hasn't done any reading for the post-'04 era, I suppose--perhaps he'll chime in to tell us why only KKKarl can deliver a GOP White House in '00.;))
 
In those circumstances I do not think that Florida would be a serious Democrat target. I guess that Gore, or whoever would put more effort into Ohio and New Hampshire.

I wonder if Florida being off the table butterflies out Lieberman as VP- one of Gore's errors in my view.
 
Magniac:I've never said Karl gives the GOP an automatic win. Let me be clear, Karl Rove could not have won the 2008 election for John McCain without ASBs.
 
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Magniac:I've never said Karl gives the GOP an automatic win. Let me be clear, Karl Rove could not have won the 2008 election for John McCain without ASBs.
For one thing, McCain could have made Gore's Campaign Finance scandals an issue- big time. Bush couldn't have. (Bush, after all was the guy who numerous REPUBLICANS (Elizabeth Dole, Lamar Alexander) were attacking for the massive amounts of contributions...)
Second, McCain wouldn't have made many of the gaffes Bush did. (True, he would have a temper...) He also has enthusiasm, which Gore was criticized as lacking.
Finally, after what Rove did to McCain in South Carolina, I think McCain would single out Rove as the target for an investigation...
 
I wonder if Florida being off the table butterflies out Lieberman as VP- one of Gore's errors in my view.

Impossible to tell, because Gore was (and would be in any TL, because the Dems held their convention two weeks after the GOP in 2000) making the selection after Bush was. So Gore's choice itself would depend in good part on who Jeb himself picks. Would he be picking Cheney as well? Maybe. Or Tom Ridge, or someone else? Depends on how the primaries run, and what Jeb's preference is.

Either if he was elected in '98 or '94, I'm sure Jeb would take Florida out of contention. Would he be more formdiable nationally? Can't see much reason for believing he wouldn't.
 
JEB wouldn't pick Cheney because (1) unlike W, he wouldn't need to persuade people that there was an adult on the ticket (back in 2000, W came across as boyish and immature to lots of people) and (2) unlike W, JEB probably wouldn't stand for it when the head of his VP search committee recommended himself.
 
I presume that if Jeb Bush were the Republican Presidential nominee it would be pretty obvious at the time the Democrat convention.

Plainly if Jeb Bush were the Republican candidate Florida would not be seen as 'in play' by Democrats. Therefore there would be no incentive to please Florida voters (unless Jeb lost nationally by a 15% plus landslice surely he would carry his home state.

I therefore still think that this makes Lieberman less likely.

The places Gore would go for would be Ohio, New Hampshire, Colarado (at a pinch Arizona had the Bushies really pissed of McCain's supporters)
 
I presume that if Jeb Bush were the Republican Presidential nominee it would be pretty obvious at the time the Democrat convention.

Plainly if Jeb Bush were the Republican candidate Florida would not be seen as 'in play' by Democrats. Therefore there would be no incentive to please Florida voters (unless Jeb lost nationally by a 15% plus landslice surely he would carry his home state.

I therefore still think that this makes Lieberman less likely.

The places Gore would go for would be Ohio, New Hampshire, Colarado (at a pinch Arizona had the Bushies really pissed of McCain's supporters)

What we now know as the the Hispanic issue would come to the fore, thanks in part to Jeb's family and the appearance of a secure lock on Fla.

If Jeb is the nominee there will be grumbles from the base about him possibly wanting to repeat Reagan's '86 amnesty programme, I think. (Okay, McCain didn't face this question during his primary campaign IOTL, but I think Jeb being strongly integrated into latino culture changes things.)

A Gore strategy focussing on the SouthWest would be interesting, though perhaps a bit too clever by half, as it would involve wedging the GOP--and I don't think Gore would think it dignified.

I think Gore/Gephardt or Gore/Bayh is the most likely Dem ticket. For a pivotal swing voter bloc he'll try to appeal to either conservative-leaning independent midwesterners, or laborite midwesterners.
 
I'm not sure if this is accurate or not, but Jeb seems a lot less sleazy than his brother. I think that he never would have pulled the push-polling shenanigans that Dubya did in South Carolina. If that's accurate, we would almost certainly have ended up with President John McCain.

Assuming that's wrong and Jeb gets the nod, political war for Ohio would ensue. Jeb would probably give the nod to someone from the general area of the Rust Belt, possibly Tom Ridge. Gore might do the same with Evan Bayh, or he could go for the Southwest with someone unexpected (Jeff Bingaman? Harry Reid?). Either way, Jeb probably wins it.
 
I presume that if Jeb Bush were the Republican Presidential nominee it would be pretty obvious at the time the Democrat convention.

You misread what I said. I said that Gore would be picking his running mate after Jeb had declared his. That may have a knock-on effect on Gore's selection.

I therefore still think that this makes Lieberman less likely.

Why? Lieberman wasn't chosen neccessarily to win Florida, he was chosen to de-sleaze and de-Clintonise Gore's ticket. Lieberman had been very strong during the impeachment, Gore's selection of him was a deliberate play towards moderate voters. If anything, that need is sharper here with Florida out of play.

I don't see Evan Bayh as being that likely. The man is a virtual Gore clone, and although he's popular in Indiana Gore doesn't stand a chance in hell on winning it. He was however, an extremely popular governor, and if Gore feels the need to prove his governing credentials facing Jeb, that might give Bayh more of an opening.

If Gore is feeling incredibly bloody minded, he could go for Bob Graham. That would be fun.
 
Lieberman wasn't chosen neccessarily to win Florida, he was chosen to de-sleaze and de-Clintonise Gore's ticket. Lieberman had been very strong during the impeachment, Gore's selection of him was a deliberate play towards moderate voters. If anything, that need is sharper here with Florida out of play.

Actually, this is a scenario in which choosing Lieberman probably won't look quite so bad in retrospect.

Until Holy Joe bolts the party, that is.

V-J said:
If Gore is feeling incredibly bloody minded, he could go for Bob Graham. That would be fun.

For Florida it looks defiant, pointless even--yet if Jeb doesn't choose a Southern running mate, then Graham will be the most Dixie candidate on either of the major tickets, so he does make a little sense in that respect.
 
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