What if Jean Louis Barthou escaped assassination?

Zachariah

Banned
Jean Louis Barthou was a French politician of the Third Republic, who served as Prime Minister of France for eight months in 1913. Barthou's brief time as Prime Minister saw the introduction of laws to safeguard female workers before and after childbirth, as well as the provision of social allowances to families with children. As a national World War I hero and a recognized author, Barthou was elected to the Académie Française at the end of that war. He also held ministerial office thirteen other times- most notably, when he served as Foreign Minister in 1934. He was the primary figure behind the Franco-Soviet Treaty of Mutual Assistance of 1935- though it was signed by his reluctant successor, Pierre Laval, who greatly compromised its terms and provisions. In 1934, he tried to create an Eastern Pact that would have included Germany, Russia, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and the Baltic states, on the basis of a guarantee by France of the European borders of the Soviet Union and the eastern borders of the then Nazi Germany by the Soviet Union. He also succeeded in obtaining entry of the Soviet Union into the League of Nations in September 1934.

But as Foreign Minister, when Barthou met King Alexander I of Yugoslavia during his state visit to Marseille in October 1934, both were assassinated by Velicko Kerin, a Bulgarian revolutionary wielding a handgun. One of the bullets struck Barthou in the arm, passing though and fatally severing an artery, and he died of excessive blood loss within the hour. The assassination had been planned in Rome by Ante Pavelić, head of the Croatian Ustaše, in August 1934, who was assisted by Georg Percevic, a former Austro-Hungarian military officer. France unsuccessfully requested the extradition of Percevic and Pavelić, and the assassination of Barthou and Alexander I led to the Convention for the Prevention and Punishment of Terrorism, concluded at Geneva by the League of Nations on 16 November 1937 (albeit only signed by 25 nations, and ratified only by India). So then, what might have happened if that bullet had missed, and Jean Louis Barthou had escaped the Ustaše assassination attempt largely unscathed? How much of a impact might Barthou's survival, and his continued diplomatic efforts, have had upon the course of history?
 
The Franco-Soviet Pact likely would have had more teeth and thus created a stronger basis for a true tripartite agreement in either 1938 or 1939.
 

Zachariah

Banned
Please don't. Not every new thread gets noticed.
Well, I did wait for a month first. And it had plenty of views- just no responses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Barthou

He was killed by a French policemen in the chaos that followed the attack on the Yougoslav king. So he should have lived.

He tried to get an anti-Nazi front by uniting Italy, Great Britain, France and the Soviet Union, but his death sunk the idea. Could make for an interesting TL.

So he was killed by friendly fire? Wow, he really should've lived. How'd you rate his chances of actually getting all of those key players into an anti-Nazi front though? Heard that the British were opposed to the Franco-Soviet Pact, and had a bit of a falling out over it.
 

Archibald

Banned
What is amazing with Mussolini Italy is that it could have very well be on the Allied side by 1934 or 1936 - before Abyssinia at least. Somebody should write a TL about it, complete with a Reggia Marina wank.
 
So he was killed by friendly fire? Wow, he really should've lived. How'd you rate his chances of actually getting all of those key players into an anti-Nazi front though? Heard that the British were opposed to the Franco-Soviet Pact, and had a bit of a falling out over it.

Could it lead to a situation where France and the Soviets form an alliance and the British, being opposed to such an alliance and fearful of it tipping the balance of power in favour of the Soviets align themselves with Nazi Germany. There were certainly plenty within the British establishment who saw fascism, and Germany in particular, as a bulwark against Communism if not a potential model for emulation.
 

Zachariah

Banned
Could it lead to a situation where France and the Soviets form an alliance and the British, being opposed to such an alliance and fearful of it tipping the balance of power in favour of the Soviets align themselves with Nazi Germany. There were certainly plenty within the British establishment who saw fascism, and Germany in particular, as a bulwark against Communism if not a potential model for emulation.
One of the questions I was pondering. Along with the question of who'd win if WW2 were to kick off with those alliances facing off against each other.
 
One of the questions I was pondering. Along with the question of who'd win if WW2 were to kick off with those alliances facing off against each other.
I'm also interested in the cultural consequences of a democratic UK (well as democratic as 1930s UK could be) allied to OTL Nazi Germany, without first making the UK more authoritarian or moderating the Nazis. How would British people remember such an alliance after the war (which also depends on who wins), to what extent would Britain be complicit in Nazi atrocities and what would the long-term political legacy be both domestically and in terms of foreign policy?
 
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