What if Japan was modernized by the Tokugawa Shogunate?

The Tokugawa got their power by playing it safe and not rocking the boat like Nobunaga and Hideyoshi. Isolation and inward focus is natural considering the chaos of the Ikko Ikki and Christianity - along with the Oda and Toyotomi who broke both - beforehand.

However one wants Japan to modernize (along Western lines) more rapidly in an ATL, it cannot be through the Tokugawa.
 
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