Let's just say that for whatever reason, the West decides to largely ignore Japan, making only cursory requests to trade as they had been doing. Perry's fleet never shows up and Japan is never forced to open up trade with the West. How long could Japan sustain Sakoku assuming continued Western indifference?
What if Japan remained isolationist until the present day?
- Thread starter YLi
- Start date
Not going to happen.
If the US doesn't do it, Britain will.
If by some crazy chance neither does, then France will.
Just look at how Europe was throwing its weight around in China. Treaty Ports, unequal treaties, etc.
If Japan stays in isolation another, say five years, that's what will happen to Japan. All her major port cities will be carved up, a couple each to the US and UK, one or two to France. Probably one to Russia.
If you want to discuss such a wildly implausible scenario, you have to suggest a REASON for such a major change in history.
Something like an asteroid strike on Europe might suffice, or a disease that killed 50% of people with the European lactose tolerance gene, but such a major PoD would have effects elsewhere that would dwarf changes in Japan.
Honestly, ANY PoD that was major enough to leave Japan isolated for another 50 years, let alone to today, would surely have the effects on Japan be a minor part of the change.
If the US doesn't do it, Britain will.
If by some crazy chance neither does, then France will.
Just look at how Europe was throwing its weight around in China. Treaty Ports, unequal treaties, etc.
If Japan stays in isolation another, say five years, that's what will happen to Japan. All her major port cities will be carved up, a couple each to the US and UK, one or two to France. Probably one to Russia.
If you want to discuss such a wildly implausible scenario, you have to suggest a REASON for such a major change in history.
Something like an asteroid strike on Europe might suffice, or a disease that killed 50% of people with the European lactose tolerance gene, but such a major PoD would have effects elsewhere that would dwarf changes in Japan.
Honestly, ANY PoD that was major enough to leave Japan isolated for another 50 years, let alone to today, would surely have the effects on Japan be a minor part of the change.
Japan is not strong enough to keep the door shut. The West will eventually kick the door in and take what they want. Witness China, Indonesia and such. Western rapacity was at at all time high in this period and they had the tools to back it up.
My TL sees the European powers pretty much ignore colonialism completely for the entire 19th century (so they can fight each other repeatedly). When they decide that the Pacific region does in fact exist, which is about 1940, it results in the Samurai getting machine-gunned and mustard gassed from helicopters. Because any regime stubborn enough to stay closed that much longer is also going to be stubborn enough to fight. And that is a fight they will lose.
- BNC
- BNC
Marc
Donor
Sorry, it's more than borderline ASB. the European ascendancy that begins circa 1500 is heavily predicated on their use of settlement and/or exploitation colonization. Remove that, and you simply don't have any semblance of modern Europe - including parenthetically its military technology.
And recall, Japan's seclusion was largely based on a desire to avoid the pernicious spread of Christianity. No Portuguese showing up, and Japan doesn't shut itself off.
And recall, Japan's seclusion was largely based on a desire to avoid the pernicious spread of Christianity. No Portuguese showing up, and Japan doesn't shut itself off.
Good to see you on here! I think the best way to do this requires Japan keeping its guns and building more of a navy, but then otherwise dedicating itself to isolation. With a navy, at least they could challenge gunboats and prevent the opening of their ports to outside commerce -- and I don't think they'd ever draw the amount of interest that led to the Opium Wars. After all, Korea was never opened that extremely to the West, and we're talking a more populous, mountainous Japan that'd be just as able to resist European incursion. Being an island also helps a lot IMO.
Eventually they'd be made to open up I think, but it could definitely be delayed further.
You can do this by delaying the industrial revolution past the present day, which much wider effects than Japan.
Or have the industrial revolution start earlier, in Japan itself.
Or have the industrial revolution start earlier, in Japan itself.
I suspect by the time Sakoku was implemented (mid-1600s) it's too late to keep the Europeans away from colonialism; they're already far too established.
As for maintaining the isolation, its worth noting that Britain, France and Russia were all at least considering mounting an expedition at roughly the same time as Perry did. There's a reason they all followed up shortly thereafter with their own treaties. Japan was seen as a useful coaling station for the China trade (the main reason the US was interested), occasional stories of shipwrecked sailors getting massacred inflamed tensions, and missionaries were also always on the lookout for new areas to proselytize.
Now you certainly could have a less aggressively Westernizing Japan; none of the Great Powers saw Japan as a particularly enticing target for conquest, so they could probably get by with just limiting contact to a number of treaty ports (either deeded outright a la Hong Kong/Macao, or with various international concessions a la Shanghai). That situation could possibly last until the end of the century; there'd be diffusion, but there was diffusion even during the Sakoku period, with the whole Dutch Learning craze.
As for maintaining the isolation, its worth noting that Britain, France and Russia were all at least considering mounting an expedition at roughly the same time as Perry did. There's a reason they all followed up shortly thereafter with their own treaties. Japan was seen as a useful coaling station for the China trade (the main reason the US was interested), occasional stories of shipwrecked sailors getting massacred inflamed tensions, and missionaries were also always on the lookout for new areas to proselytize.
Now you certainly could have a less aggressively Westernizing Japan; none of the Great Powers saw Japan as a particularly enticing target for conquest, so they could probably get by with just limiting contact to a number of treaty ports (either deeded outright a la Hong Kong/Macao, or with various international concessions a la Shanghai). That situation could possibly last until the end of the century; there'd be diffusion, but there was diffusion even during the Sakoku period, with the whole Dutch Learning craze.
How about after Meiji restoration, instead of becoming imperialistic the Japanese decide that the whole reason modernisation was so that they could strengthen themselves in order go back to living in peace and next time the western devils try to park gunboats in their harbours they'll be ready.
Politely, that's absolute nonsense.
What logical reason would they have to completely ignore an entire section of the world?
Bhutan has the advantage of a geographical location that makes it difficult to approach and colonize.
Japan has no such advantage.
There's no logical reason to ignore a potential market, possible ally or somewhere to exploit.
A Japan that manages to keep itself isolated need something to help keep it, be it an alliance, weapons, geographical location, technology or something.
Opening the nation can be delayed, but there's too much going against Japan for them to remain completely isolated.
ITTL, Britain, France, USA and Russia are all too busy fighting each other (there's four wars of Napoleonic-WWI scale in the nineteenth century), with a total war mentality that means merchant fleets and stuff get wiped out every 20 years. Peacetime in between is mostly used to prepare for the next round, which both sides accept is inevitable. So to begin with, they probably can't afford a large-scale effort into the Far East.
In such a political atmosphere, neither side really wants to provoke the other side into starting a war (which they very well might do). Declaring a huge chunk of the world as part of your sphere of influence is a fairly large provocation that is not going to be received well by the five million men with guns on the other side of the Channel.
Also during the 1810s-1830s, the attitude of both OTL China and Japan was pretty strong isolationism. If Europe isn't pushing to open them up, neither Asian power has any real reason to change that: they're doing fine as they are. ITTL these attitudes become more radical and more determined as time goes on. That means that if Europe wants to interfere, they will have a fight on their hands. Which they probably can't win without taking enough forces away from Europe as to expose their homeland to invasion. China had a fairly large army at this time, and it is unlikely that Japan will be "opened" without China first either giving approval or being beaten down.
Of course, as soon as France loses its powerful position in the world (1887 ITTL), Britain and Russia go full bore on colonising. Africa first because it's closer and the natives are easier to fight, before China/Japan which are only considered once infrastructure has been set up in the Russian Far East and the Philippines (owned by the UK).
Yes there is: if your neighbour says "don't go there or I'll smash your head in" and is strong enough to make good on that threat.
So I have to disagree with you there. In a close-to-OTL scenario, your points are very reasonable. In the Napolead, with its very different climate and attitudes, other ideas will work better (or at least are perceived to).
- BNC
The policy of isolation could remain for a few years more. There were several attempts to open up Japan earlier which failed. The problem from the Japan government that as each attempt failed the military forces for the next attempt was getting bigger. Japan did have a large number of troops, enough to hold out for while more. Having said that I would be surprised if the policy could last much longer than the late 1890s.
OP says West ignores Japan except the cursory trades. Therefore, it happens.
No. That works in ASB, and probably non political Chat, not here.
Especially since whatever huge PoD caused Europe to ignore Japan would have far more major effects. A world epidemic of Black Death proportions or major comet strike, two obvious possibilities, would have major, and differing, effects on an isolated Japan.
if one country can ignore another for 10 years, there is nothing to disturb the status quo until someone makes a conscious decision. Indecision is never ASB. OP says it, it is within the human possibility, and therefore it happens in TTL. Whatever TTL is. Which I have no idea.
