What if Japan presses advantage after Savo Island?

The battle of Savo Island was arguably the worst, most lopsided naval defeat the US navy ever suffered.

On teh night of August 8-9, 1942, just days after the Guadalcanal landing, a Japanese task force under Admiral Mikawa of 5 heavy cruisers, 2 light cruisers, and 1 destroyer slipped completely undetected through The Slot and in a space of 15 minutes, sank 5 US and Australian Cruisers guarding the transports at Tulagi and Guadalcanal, taking practcally no return fire. This one-sided defeat was nicknamed "The Battle of the Five Sitting Ducks" by Guadalcanal campaign veterans.


This left practically nothing left guarding the transports, but Mikawa, fearing a daylight carrier strike, turned back. In reality, the US carriers and larger capital ships had already withdrawn to refuel and rearm, and to protect them from Japanese attack. The next day the Transports were all withdrawn. This left the Marines on Guadalcanal in a bad way as over half their equipment was still in the ships. However, all those ships were still afloat to bring in new supplies later.


So what if Mikawa instead drives on, Sinks the San Juan (the only cruiser still available to guard the transports) as well, and destroys the transports off Guadalcanal and Tulagi?


While certainly the US can eventually make good the loss of transports, that will take some time. What is the immediate effect on the Guadalcanal campaign? Is the island abandoned?
 
The battle of Savo Island was arguably the worst, most lopsided naval defeat the US navy ever suffered.

On teh night of August 8-9, 1942, just days after the Guadalcanal landing, a Japanese task force under Admiral Mikawa of 5 heavy cruisers, 2 light cruisers, and 1 destroyer slipped completely undetected through The Slot and in a space of 15 minutes, sank 5 US and Australian Cruisers guarding the transports at Tulagi and Guadalcanal, taking practcally no return fire. This one-sided defeat was nicknamed "The Battle of the Five Sitting Ducks" by Guadalcanal campaign veterans.


This left practically nothing left guarding the transports, but Mikawa, fearing a daylight carrier strike, turned back. In reality, the US carriers and larger capital ships had already withdrawn to refuel and rearm, and to protect them from Japanese attack. The next day the Transports were all withdrawn. This left the Marines on Guadalcanal in a bad way as over half their equipment was still in the ships. However, all those ships were still afloat to bring in new supplies later.


So what if Mikawa instead drives on, Sinks the San Juan (the only cruiser still available to guard the transports) as well, and destroys the transports off Guadalcanal and Tulagi?


While certainly the US can eventually make good the loss of transports, that will take some time. What is the immediate effect on the Guadalcanal campaign? Is the island abandoned?

In the absence of those transports, do they have anything to abandon it with ?
 
Yea, I'd say the Guadalcanal offensive is pretty much humped. US loses more ships it can replace. USMC has another brutal martyr story to add to its bloody banner. Maybe Japan pushes against Moresby again. Unless this somehow drives a shift by the US away from Island hop then we really just see a few months' delay on the inevitable US steamroller.
 

takerma

Banned
Marines are really screwed, it could have some interesting effects on development of the USMC and future island operation in the pacific.
 
...

This left practically nothing left guarding the transports,

Another two cruisers & destroyer pair lay with the transports. Plus the 'Australia' was hove to just west of the transport area. Mikawa had no clear idea what lay further east in Skylark Channel. While the US Navy had all sorts of unresolved problems at this point the combat ships at the transport anchorage did know something was up & were at least watching westwards when Mikawa made his decision. So, the Japanese flotilla runs into a second battle. On paper they have all the advantages of numbers & skill, but they dont know that, just that a group of ships are shooting. Plus they are silhoutted when passing east of the burning Allied ships further west.

... but Mikawa, fearing a daylight carrier strike, turned back. In reality, the US carriers and larger capital ships had already withdrawn to refuel and rearm, and to protect them from Japanese attack. The next day the Transports were all withdrawn. This left the Marines on Guadalcanal in a bad way as over half their equipment was still in the ships.

Half the material was still aboard on the morning of the 9th. Unloading continued through the 9th & the transports departed at nightfall, rather than at dawn as Adm Turner previously planned.

However, all those ships were still afloat to bring in new supplies later.

The cargo ships off Guadalcanal represented maybe 20% of the cargo capacity afloat in the S Pacific, & perhaps 10% of the total available in the entire Pacific.

Regular cargo deliveries to Gudalcanal did not resume for over a week, after the air wing begain operating off Henderson Field. Even then they were thin for several more weeks, until the USN became more confident in the new surface escorts. Losing part or all the transports of the amphib TF 9 August is a problem but does not cripple of defeat the landing force. The first real attack on the airfield defense did not come until 7 September, after regular cargo deliveries had resumed.

So what if Mikawa instead drives on, Sinks the San Juan (the only cruiser still available to guard the transports) ...

HMAS Hobart was with the San Jaun & HMAS Australia a little further west, delaying its return to the South TF. Plus two destroyers with the San Juan as part of the Eastern TF.


While certainly the US can eventually make good the loss of transports, that will take some time. What is the immediate effect on the Guadalcanal campaign? Is the island abandoned?

One likely outcome is Admiral Ghormley & Admiral Fletcher are replaced sooner. neither survived the campaign in command OTL. Neither Nimitz nor King would hesitate should the battle go worse at the start.
 
Last edited:
Marines are really screwed, it could have some interesting effects on development of the USMC and future island operation in the pacific.


I remember watching scenes that depicted the aftermath of the attack in the mini-series The Pacific. I don't know how true this was but the company of semi-fictional Marines already ashore was told to prepare for guerrilla warfare.
 
I remember watching scenes that depicted the aftermath of the attack in the mini-series The Pacific. I don't know how true this was but the company of semi-fictional Marines already ashore was told to prepare for guerrilla warfare.

Vandigrift did have his staff prepare a plan to move the entire division into the interior of Guadalcanal. There was a sort of gently rolling upland or plateau where it was hoped a airstrip or para drop zone could be prepared for receiving at least some medical supplies. Note that the majority of field grade officers in the 1st Mar Div had served in Hati & Nicaragua. There they had commanded small platoon & company size units, isolated from each other, with shoestring logistics, and even air supply. Operating as loose irregular force was not outside their understanding or experience.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Astoria, Quincy, Vincennes, Canberra, and?

On teh night of August 8-9, 1942, just days after the Guadalcanal landing, a Japanese task force under Admiral Mikawa of 5 heavy cruisers, 2 light cruisers, and 1 destroyer slipped completely undetected through The Slot and in a space of 15 minutes, sank 5 US and Australian Cruisers guarding the transports at Tulagi and Guadalcanal, taking practcally no return fire. This one-sided defeat was nicknamed "The Battle of the Five Sitting Ducks" by Guadalcanal campaign veterans.

Astoria, Quincy, Vincennes, Canberra, and?

Actually, the escort forces that were not even engaged at Savo included:

HMAS Australia (8x8 inch main battery) (Crutchley's flagship)
HMAS Hobart (8x8 6 inch)
USS San Juan (16x5 inch) (Scott's flagship)
destroyers: Selfridge, Mugford, Blue, Helm, Henley, Bagley, Dewey, Ellet, Hull, Wilson, Buchanan, and Monssen, plus assorted DM/DMS types...

and Chicago's not in great shape, but she's not sinking, either; neither is Patterson.

And Mikawa has - remember - NO IDEA exactly where the transports are, has lost the element of surprise, and has shot off quite a bit of his ordnance - and daylight is coming, complete with the air groups of Enterprise, Saratoga, and Wasp...including their escorts, North Carolina, six more cruisers, and 17 more modern destroyers.

And S-44 and her seven sisters are prowling around, as Kako found out to her detriment the next day.

But other than that, yeah, it's a war winner.:rolleyes:

As bad as Savo was, it was really only the first instance of many in the campaign where the IJN was outnumbered from day one, and just didn't have the staying power to exploit the tactical victories the did gain...

Best,
 
You need Mikawa to have the nerve to risk potential carrier air attack. More than that, you need him to feel a need to attack "defenseless" transports, rather than look for the "glory" of a gunfight... That makes this a low probability, IMO.
 
You need Mikawa to have the nerve to risk potential carrier air attack. More than that, you need him to feel a need to attack "defenseless" transports, rather than look for the "glory" of a gunfight... That makes this a low probability, IMO.

Easy - he knew very well there may be other warships in the area, so the transports are not that "defenseless". Plus, they were the very reason he had sailed out in the first place.

As for the carriers, either have a lucky scout spot them before nightfall or have Mikawa listen to those officers which advocated attack.

IMO, even if Japan looses all of its cruisers in the ensuing action, it's "worth it" if it leads to a victory in the land campaign.
 
Easy - he knew very well there may be other warships in the area, so the transports are not that "defenseless". Plus, they were the very reason he had sailed out in the first place.

As for the carriers, either have a lucky scout spot them before nightfall or have Mikawa listen to those officers which advocated attack.

IMO, even if Japan looses all of its cruisers in the ensuing action, it's "worth it" if it leads to a victory in the land campaign.

I'm not convinced it leads to victory in the land campaign. Yes the Marines will be in a much tougher spot and the land campaign will be a lot uglier (and it was ugly enough) but the Japanese consistently underestimated the size of the enemy force on the island and throughout the entire campaign they had a lot of trouble bringing in their own reinforcements and keeping their guys supplied.
 
I'm not convinced it leads to victory in the land campaign. Yes the Marines will be in a much tougher spot and the land campaign will be a lot uglier (and it was ugly enough) but the Japanese consistently underestimated the size of the enemy force on the island and throughout the entire campaign they had a lot of trouble bringing in their own reinforcements and keeping their guys supplied.
Agreed. The Japanese at first refused to believe the U.S. had even landed 11,000 men.:rolleyes: Japan winning at Guadalcanal takes more than victory at Savo. It takes an attitude change.

Of course, every destroyer they lose on the Tokyo Express, & indeed every run of the Express, shortens the war, by weakening convoy escort (already laughably bad) & burning oil IJN, & Japan, cannot spare...:eek:
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Worth pointing out

Worth pointing out - at the time the U.S. 1st Marine Division was deployed between Guadalcanal and Tulagi, with two-thirds of the division on Guadalcanal, the Japanese landed a battalion combat team (Ichiki Detachment); by the time the Japanese put the 2nd and (IIRC) 38th divisions ashore. The U.S. had the XXIV Corps, with what amounted to the 1st and 2nd Marine divisions, the Americal Division, and the 25th Division in the Solomons.

The Japanese continually were overmatched by the U.S. during the campaign, in terms of both committed and available resources.

Best,
 
Top