What if: Japan invasion Kuril island ?

The JSDF invaded Russia's Kuril at present day. Note the US will remain outside the conflict

Russia defense units include devices at Kuril:

S-300/400, Buk-2M / 3M, Tor-M2U, Su-27SM/30SM, P-800, Kuznetsov Naval Group: MiG-29K & Ka-28 Gorshkov class, Sovremenny class, Kirov class, Udaloy II class, Kilo class, Oscar class, Yasen class, T-80U & T-14 Amarta, A-222 Bereg, Kornet-EM.

Support from the mother land Tu-160, Su-35S, T-22M3, MiG-31BM, A-50 AWACS, Iskander-K, Il-38N

JSDF can win ?
 
The JSDF invaded Russia's Kuril at present day. Note the US will remain outside the conflict

Russia defense units include devices at Kuril:

S-300/400, Buk-2M / 3M, Tor-M2U, Su-27SM/30SM, P-800, Kuznetsov Naval Group: MiG-29K & Ka-28 Gorshkov class, Sovremenny class, Kirov class, Udaloy II class, Kilo class, Oscar class, Yasen class, T-80U & T-14 Amarta, A-222 Bereg, Kornet-EM.

Support from the mother land Tu-160, Su-35S, T-22M3, MiG-31BM, A-50 AWACS, Iskander-K, Il-38N

JSDF can win ?

only until either the US/UN orders then to stand down or until Russia brings their full military down upon the Japanese.
 
Since you said 'present day', I'd say Tsar Putin adds Japan to the Eurasian Union in short measure. No, seriously, without the US to back them (which they won't if Japan actually goes militarist again and invades), Japan is fucked.

That said, any land grab like that will be dealt with very harshly by the international community. Just look at how Putin's adventures in Crimea and Donbass are going and tell me honestly if he got off with nothing more than a pat on the shoulder. Japan isn't daft enough to go to war. It's against their constitution. And certainly not stupid enough to go to war against literally the largest country in the world by landmass, with resources, manpower and weapons outstripping what meagre supplies Japan has.
 
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CalBear

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Hmmm....

Japan - Non-nuclear power

Russia - Nuclear power

Yep, that sums it up nicely.
 
The JSDF invaded Russia's Kuril at present day. Note the US will remain outside the conflict

Russia defense units include devices at Kuril:

S-300/400, Buk-2M / 3M, Tor-M2U, Su-27SM/30SM, P-800, Kuznetsov Naval Group: MiG-29K & Ka-28 Gorshkov class, Sovremenny class, Kirov class, Udaloy II class, Kilo class, Oscar class, Yasen class, T-80U & T-14 Amarta, A-222 Bereg, Kornet-EM.

Support from the mother land Tu-160, Su-35S, T-22M3, MiG-31BM, A-50 AWACS, Iskander-K, Il-38N

JSDF can win ?
dey dun fuked
 
The JSDF invaded Russia's Kuril at present day. Note the US will remain outside the conflict

Russia defense units include devices at Kuril:

S-300/400, Buk-2M / 3M, Tor-M2U, Su-27SM/30SM, P-800, Kuznetsov Naval Group: MiG-29K & Ka-28 Gorshkov class, Sovremenny class, Kirov class, Udaloy II class, Kilo class, Oscar class, Yasen class, T-80U & T-14 Amarta, A-222 Bereg, Kornet-EM.

Support from the mother land Tu-160, Su-35S, T-22M3, MiG-31BM, A-50 AWACS, Iskander-K, Il-38N

JSDF can win ?

No US involvement?

The Russian submarines solo Japan with their nukes.
 
Japan may be strong in anti-submarine capability, with P-1, P-3, however, they need the F-15J, F-2 and F-4J support, however fighters Japan is technologically outdated can not comparison for Su-30SM, Su-35S, MiG-31BM, they can only compare with the MiG-29/23 or Su-27 old version

Fleet submarines and Russian warships are mostly old, but they are still very dangerous. The new ship as Yasen, Gorshkov would be preserved by the firepower of Kirov and Oscar. Because they have been upgraded a lot about weapons systems and electronics, "old" I mean concerning longevity chassis.

The Japanese ships are also very good with Kongo and Atago, they are branch of class DDG-51 Flight I / II. However, they have paucity, largely focused on anti-aircraft capability. Most of the anti-ship missile of supersonic and Russia are flying sea surf. Besides the Russian submarines, will suddenly secure villa before the threat of P-1/3 ASW, by F-15J, F-4J, F-2 + Boeing E-767 might not have the ability to cope with MiG-31BM, Su-35S, Su-30SM + A-50. AAM Russia is surpassed in range BVR (R-77-1, R-37M vs AIM-7/120C5/7). Japan does not have the F-35, and if so, F-35 F-22 even could not change the game. Submarine Soryu class (sub dieziel, AIP) must better just Kilo, but It can comparison to Amur or lada equivalent, however, it's completely out of the fight with Oscar, Akula II or Yasen nuclear submarine class, JDS Harukaze-class ASW does not have powerful firepower for ASW hunt like Udaloy II and Steregushchy-class. Japan study US naval combat for using the SH-60J and P-3 in ASW
 
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