What if Japan invaded the dutch east indies along with french indochina in 1940?

Pearl Harbor is gonna be a non starter here. The US is going to pour reinforcements into the PI, and fortify Wake and Midway beyond Japan's ability to threaten. Expect reinforcements to Guam - Japan can probably still take that and the PI, but they will need a LOT more than they did OTL.
In general I agree. Although there is a physical limit to how many planes, men, and guns you can station on tiny Wake and Midway, especially with no natural source of fresh water.
 
I'm not so sure. Churchill was on the verge of declaring war on the Soviets after their invasion of Finland.

Sure. But in November 1939 Churchill wasn't staring at panzers across the Pas de Calais, watching London being incinerated every night, or wondering if he was going to have to evacuate Malta. The Brits are in a tough bind in late 1940.
 
In general I agree. Although there is a physical limit to how many planes, men, and guns you can station on tiny Wake and Midway, especially with no natural source of fresh water.

Sure. But put a full Marine Defense Battalion, a couple of tank companies, and an air wing on Midway or Wake and taking it is gonna cost more resources than it's worth.
 
Sure. But put a full Marine Defense Battalion, a couple of tank companies, and an air wing on Midway or Wake and taking it is gonna cost more resources than it's worth.

The Japanese don't need Midway, but Wake and Guam are too far inside their defense perimeter to allow the Americans stay there.

Personally, I'd just as soon focus the buildup on just Guam, which is big enough and rugged enough to be very defensible. At the least, you can make it an extraordinary resource sink for the Japanese, one they can hardly afford but which they have to spend. But I believe we've seen a couple timelines that play in this sandbox before.
 
The Japanese don't need Midway, but Wake and Guam are too far inside their defense perimeter to allow the Americans stay there.

Personally, I'd just as soon focus the buildup on just Guam, which is big enough and rugged enough to be very defensible. At the least, you can make it an extraordinary resource sink for the Japanese, one they can hardly afford but which they have to spend. But I believe we've seen a couple timelines that play in this sandbox before.

I see both sides. The advantage of holding Wake is that it's far closer to Hawaii, and small enough to make it easy to concentrate against a landing force. It's also much easier to contest the seas around Wake.

You can pack far more forces onto Guam, but they are surrounded/close to Japanese possessions, difficult to resupply and even harder to force a naval battle.

I'm not sure I wouldn't try to evacuate Guam entirely, as it's ultimately indefensible, but that might be politically problematic. Wake, I think, can be held, especially in the scenario envisaged here in which there is no attack on Pearl Harbor.
 
I see both sides. The advantage of holding Wake is that it's far closer to Hawaii, and small enough to make it easy to concentrate against a landing force. It's also much easier to contest the seas around Wake.

You can pack far more forces onto Guam, but they are surrounded/close to Japanese possessions, difficult to resupply and even harder to force a naval battle.

I'm not sure I wouldn't try to evacuate Guam entirely, as it's ultimately indefensible, but that might be politically problematic. Wake, I think, can be held, especially in the scenario envisaged here in which there is no attack on Pearl Harbor.

In the end, Wake is just too small to be defensible, if any enemy really wants it.

And in 1941, the Japanese really wanted it, and spent what it took to take it. Had they realized what its defenses were, they would have detailed a more powerful force in the first place.

The United States in 1943-45 did not really want it that badly, because they did not really need it to execute their strategy. So they isolated it and left it alone, barring occasional air raids. In this sense, Wake is more valuable to Japan than it is to America.

Guam is obviously harder for the U.S. to supply or reinforce once hostilities break out, but it's even more urgent for Japan to take, and even easier for America to defend. The immediate advantage to the U.S. is as a base for submarine operations, but the Japanese also know that the U.S. is developing heavy bombers that can reach Japan from Guam.

I think it was Calbear's Pacific War Redux timeline that showed how Guam might have a fighting chance to be held by the U.S., though it clearly depended on an early point of departure (mid-1940) to make it so.
 
In the end, Wake is just too small to be defensible, if any enemy really wants it.

And in 1941, the Japanese really wanted it, and spent what it took to take it. Had they realized what its defenses were, they would have detailed a more powerful force in the first place.

The United States in 1943-45 did not really want it that badly, because they did not really need it to execute their strategy. So they isolated it and left it alone, barring occasional air raids. In this sense, Wake is more valuable to Japan than it is to America.

Guam is obviously harder for the U.S. to supply or reinforce once hostilities break out, but it's even more urgent for Japan to take, and even easier for America to defend. The immediate advantage to the U.S. is as a base for submarine operations, but the Japanese also know that the U.S. is developing heavy bombers that can reach Japan from Guam.

I think it was Calbear's Pacific War Redux timeline that showed how Guam might have a fighting chance to be held by the U.S., though it clearly depended on an early point of departure (mid-1940) to make it so.

In 12/41, sure, but this isn't the same. Not only do the Japanese not have conveniently located carrier reinforcements, but there is little chance of a surprise attack on Wake in the first place. This scenario postulated invading the DEI at the same time as occupying FIC.

Could Wake be taken? Sure, with overwhelming force, but what is Japan giving up? Resources in 1940 are certainly more limited than in late 1941, and I certainly can't see Japan expending resources on Wake in lieu of the PI, Malaya, and Guam. Wake falls but Singapore holds? That's a great trade.

Even if the US and Britain don't go to war here, they are going to make their possessions MUCH tougher nuts to crack, to the point where Japan will be up to their eyeballs in problems with the PI and Malaya, and simply won't HAVE the forces required to take a reinforced Wake. In my opinion, at least - I could certainly be wrong.
 
What is so different that the USA politicaly would accept a takeover of DEI in 1940, but not in 1941? Such a takeover would mean that any future oilembargo would be a dead letter.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
What is so different that the USA politicaly would accept a takeover of DEI in 1940, but not in 1941? Such a takeover would mean that any future oilembargo would be a dead letter.
The keyword is 'future'. In 1940 the next step would be an embargo, in 1941 that step had already been taken. In 1940 there was also an election on the way. Besides that, even in OTL it was only days before Pearl Harbor that the US guaranteed the integrity of the European possessions in Asia. In private that is.
 
The keyword is 'future'. In 1940 the next step would be an embargo, in 1941 that step had already been taken. In 1940 there was also an election on the way. Besides that, even in OTL it was only days before Pearl Harbor that the US guaranteed the integrity of the European possessions in Asia. In private that is.
But that guarantee is something the japanese apparently don't know. Maybe i must rephrase my question. At what point was FDR himself certain that there would be war with Japan, if they wouldn't concede to demands? Because after that moment, it would be unwise to give your future enemy such a strategic opportunity. I really can't believe that the USA would do nothing extra compared to OTL. The OTL takeover of French Indochina did on itself already change the US attitude.
 

Dave Shoup

Banned
I think we have to be cautious with Admiral Richardson's testimony.

Richardson was - shall we say - a hostile witness where Roosevelt was concerned. Note his preceding comment: "This is embarrassing."

Roosevelt had sacked him over the clash they had in the very meeting which he's recounting.

Either Richardson's memory was distorted; or he misunderstood what Roosevelt was saying to him; or possibly Roosevelt was trying to reassure an alarmed Richardson - or some combination of the above (more likely).

The fact is: The United States had over 22,000 soldiers; over 3,500 Marines; over 250 USAAF aircraft; and the entire U.S. Asiatic Fleet in the Philippines. Short of Oahu, it was the largest concentration of American military power outside the continental United States. A Japanese attack on the Philippines will be aimed at the destruction of all those forces. No U.S. President or Congress could refuse to respond to such an enormous blow without a declaration of war.

Now, there's little question that the U.S. would not go to war over a Far East European colonial possession (like the DEI). There would be no popular support for that. That said, it would set off every alarm bell that Indochina had not already set off, and U.S rearmament would be kicked into an even higher gear.

It's worth noting there were always several thousand US civilians (citizens, as opposed to US nationals, meaning the Filipino civilian population) in the PI in the 1930s and 1940s, who are going to be at risk in the event of war - as they were, historically.
 
It's worth noting there were always several thousand US civilians (citizens, as opposed to US nationals, meaning the Filipino civilian population) in the PI in the 1930s and 1940s, who are going to be at risk in the event of war - as they were, historically.

This is also an excellent point.

No, there really is no way for any plausible U.S. government to avoid a prompt declaration of war if Japan mounts an invasion of the Philippines. Even a President Robert Taft would be breaking land speed records to get a DOW request over to Capitol Hill.
 
In 12/41, sure, but this isn't the same. Not only do the Japanese not have conveniently located carrier reinforcements, but there is little chance of a surprise attack on Wake in the first place. This scenario postulated invading the DEI at the same time as occupying FIC.

It's unclear to me just when the Japanese might be going to war with the U.S. in this scenario.

I think going into the DEI in late 1940 is a worse move for them than they (or some posters) think, because it basically puts the U.S. and Britain on a war footing, and gets them a prompt U.S. embargo of oil and scrap metal. It makes a surprise attack like Dec. 7 nearly impossible.

Of course, you could observe that what the Japanese adopted in OTL was just about as catastrophic as possible, so the bar for improvement is easy to clear.

But as for Wake: If Japan really wants it, it can take it, even with their crappy amphibious doctrine. It's a tiny atoll, and all you can do with that is try to ratchet up the cost to the attacker modestly.
 
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Dave Shoup

Banned
The keyword is 'future'. In 1940 the next step would be an embargo, in 1941 that step had already been taken. In 1940 there was also an election on the way. Besides that, even in OTL it was only days before Pearl Harbor that the US guaranteed the integrity of the European possessions in Asia. In private that is.

Why would the British accept it? Royal Dutch Shell was 60 percent Dutch and 40 percent British, had been dual-listed since its founding, and was headquartered in the DWI. If Japan threatens the NEI, the British will blow the fields, with the encouragement of the Americans and the Dutch government in exile. At that point, the US will provide loans and aid, as was done historically, and the recruitment of "volunteer" units along the lines of the AVG are only to be expected.
 

Dave Shoup

Banned
This is also an excellent point. No, there really is no way for any plausible U.S. government to avoid a prompt declaration of war if Japan mounts an invasion of the Philippines. Even a President Robert Taft would be breaking land speed records to get a DOW request over to Capitol Hill.

Thanks. As long as the PI were a US dependency or commonwealth, the US was going to defend them.
 
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