What if Japan had the Sakhalin Oil in 1939?

[perfectgeneral]

POD Treaty of Portsmouth (1905) grants Japan all of Sakhalin. (only up to 50°N in OTL)

Korean coalminers on Sakhalin

Korean immigration to Sakhalin began as early as the 1910s, when the Mitsui Group began recruiting labourers from the peninsula for their mining operations. In 1920, ten years after the annexation of Korea by Japan, there were fewer than one thousand Koreans in the whole of Karafuto Prefecture, overwhelmingly male.[6] Aside from an influx of refugees from the Maritimes, who escaped to Karafuto during the Russian Revolution of 1917, the number of Koreans in the province did not rise very rapidly; as late as the mid 1930s, there were fewer than 6,000 Koreans in Karafuto.

Second POD Oil is discovered earlier, in 1938.

Map of Sakhalin Hydrocarbon area.

Sakhalin is a classic "resource economy" relying on oil and gas exports, coal mining, forestry, and fishing. Limited quantities of rye, wheat, oats, barley and vegetables are grown, although the growing season averages less than 100 days.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and economic liberalization, Sakhalin has experienced an oil boom with extensive petroleum exploration and mining by most large oil Multinational corporations. The oil and natural gas reserves contain an estimated 14 billion barrels (2.2 km³) of oil and 96 trillion cubic feet (2,700 km³) of gas and are being developed under production-sharing agreement contracts involving international oil companies like ExxonMobil and Shell.
In 1996, two large consortiums signed contracts to explore for oil and gas off the northeast coast of the island, Sakhalin-I and Sakhalin-II.

America has less hold over the Japanese economy. They aren't drawn into war in 1941. What happens?

 

[Kome]

Japan will still need to expand to thrive. Maybe instead of attacking the allied colonies, they just focus on China instead.

 

[perfectgeneral]

By this time they are deep into China and in control of Manchuria and Korea. Do they need China too?

Japanese Korea (economy)
From the late 1920s and into the 1930s, particularly during the tenure of Japanese Governor-General Kazushige Ugaki, concentrated efforts were made to build up the industrial base in the Korean peninsula. This was especially true in the areas of heavy industry, such as chemical plants and steel mills, and munitions production. The Japanese military felt it would benefit them to have production closer to the source of raw materials and closer to potential front lines for a future war with China.
However, by the early 1930s, Japanese investment was limited by the worldwide economic depression, competition for investment opportunities from the potentially more lucrative Manchukuo, and by Japan's own limited economic capacity.

Dalian, Manchukuo (Manchuria)
Even before and during the Sino-Japanese War, the shipbuilding and locomotives industries were a thriving industry, such as the companies which later became Dalian Shipbuilding Co. and Dalian Locomotive & Roll Stock Works (DLoco). After the War, Dalian became an important center of the heavy and light industries, including companies such as Dalian Heavy Industry Co., Dalian Chemical Group, and Wafangdian Bearing Co.; and of the distribution industry, including such as Dashang Group.

They have the red bit. The pink bit would benefit them more than China. Are they at war with the right country?

This was part of Manchu China according to the Treaty of Nerchinsk of 1689, but were ceded to Russia by the Treaty of Aigun (1858)

wiki/Treaty of Aigun
Significantly, the Treaty of Aigun was never approved by the Xianfeng Emperor,[citation needed] and was largely superseded by the Treaty of Beijing in November 1860.

wiki/Treaty of Beijing
The treaty also ceded parts of Outer Manchuria to the Russian Empire. It granted Russia the right to the Ussuri krai, a part of the modern day Primorye, the territory that corresponded with the ancient Manchu province of East Tartary. See Treaty of Aigun (1858), Treaty of Nerchinsk (1689) and Russian-Manchu border conflicts. The treaty is considered one of the unequal Treaties.

Enough wiggle room there to contest the region with Russia. Half of Russia's Lend-Lease came through this route. Russia won at Stalingrad with forces taken from this (peaceful) region. If Russia comes to peace terms with China (keeping everything above the Yellow River), they have lots of forces free to fight a Russia that has worries over Germany.
Tianjin and Beijing provide a huge workforce. A status quo peace after Wuhan seems possible and withdrawing to the Yellow River line makes peace likely:

After four months of violent battles, the Chinese air and naval force were essentially wiped out, and the Japanese occupied Wuhan. However, most of the Chinese army had managed to survive, while the Japanese army was considerably weakened. The Japanese's pre-war hopes for a final showdown in Wuhan, to annihilate the main force of Chinese Army and forcing them to yield were unsuccessful. With numerous battles around Changsha, the China theatre now entered the stage of stalemate with no major Japanese offensives

China regains a lot of the North China plain, while Japan retains the two large cities they gained in the first month of the war, safe behind a river.

Britain wonders if expanding the colony of Hong Kong to include Shenzhen (in Guangdong) is the best way to shore up the weak Chinese government. Hong Kong and Shenzhen have very close business, trade and social links. Assuming power over Shenzhen would make the combined colony defensible. While Chang Kai-Shek and the USA might not like it, with the right financial and military support, it might just work.

At the outbreak of full scale war, many global powers were reluctant to provide support to China; because in their opinion the Chinese would eventually lose the war, and they did not wish to antagonize the Japanese who might, in turn, eye their colonial possessions in the region. They expected any support given to Kuomintang might worsen their own relationship with the Japanese, who taunted the Kuomintang with the prospect of conquest within three months.

War loans to China are too great a risk without Shenzhen as security. With them, China is strong enough to bring Japan to the negotiating table. Peace is agreed and the Chinese Empire is over. This saves Japan from a lot of pointless assaults on Changsha and leaves her at peace to consolidate (and then perhaps strike at Russia). The North China Plain is now split at the Yellow River.

This flat yellow-soil plain is the main area of sorghum, millet, maize, and cotton production in China. Wheat, sesame seed, peanuts and tobacco are also grown here. The plain is one of the most densely populated regions in the world.

When the Daqing Oil Field is later found, Japanese oil workers will not waste 90% of it, thanks to experience on Sakhalin Island.

Leaving relatively few forces at the Yellow river crossings.

Jinan pontoon bridge across the Yellow River (400km south of Beijing). Jinan is now a Chinese border city.

There are about ten bridges up to Baotou, Inner Mongolia, seven of them up to Zhenzhou. A very small front/border to guard compared with the vast length of the Yangtze river. Zhenzhou is only 786 km from the Yellow Sea.

Taiyuan
is the largest coal mining center in China. It also houses several large corporations in Taiyuan, such as the Taiyuan Iron and Steel Company (TISCO) which is the largest stainless steel producing plant in Asia. Also, the Shanxi Heavy Machinery Factory and Fenxi Machinery Factory are major manufacturers for the People's Liberation Army and Navy.

Japan has power and population. The industry has not been built up yet, but clearly the potential is there. A rival for foreign investment to pre-war Germany?

 

[Bill Cameron]

Perfectgeneral,

Your POD is actually a geological one.

Sakhalin does have oil, but Sakhalin does not have oil Japan can both find and exploit in the 1930s. As I routinely point out in threads of this type, oil prospecting and drilling technology is the controlling factor here and not the presence of oil itself.

Only the US has the requisite drilling technology in this period and it's something they won't be sharing with Japan anytime soon. No one has the requisite prospecting technology, no one has even developed the "petro-geology" theories yet that developing the prospecting technology requires.

Deep drilling the US was developed due to a geological fluke; relatively shallow deposits happened to be above deeper ones. The wildcatters who scoured the US fields looking for deep fields did so with a "hunt & peck" method. They had rough rules of thumb and intuition, used dowsers, and snapped up leases alongside already proven deep fields. No one of these methods would be at work in Sakhalin. The surface geology is too different for rules of thumb or intuition, dowsers work about as well as flipping a coin, and there's no proven deep fields to drill next door to.

The oil is down there alright, there just aren't surface indications of that fact which were known in the 1930s.

If you want Japan to exploit Sakhalin's oil in the 1930s, you'll need to change the nature of Sakhalin's oil deposits. Either that or advance several basic technologies and geological theories by a few decades.


Bill

 

[perfectgeneral]

Perfectgeneral,

Your POD is actually a geological one.

Sakhalin does have oil, but Sakhalin does not have oil Japan can both find and exploit in the 1930s. As I routinely point out in threads of this type, oil prospecting and drilling technology is the controlling factor here and not the presence of oil itself.

Only the US has the requisite drilling technology in this period and it's something they won't be sharing with Japan anytime soon. No one has the requisite prospecting technology, no one has even developed the "petro-geology" theories yet that developing the prospecting technology requires.

Deep drilling the US was developed due to a geological fluke; relatively shallow deposits happened to be above deeper ones. The wildcatters who scoured the US fields looking for deep fields did so with a "hunt & peck" method. They had rough rules of thumb and intuition, used dowsers, and snapped up leases alongside already proven deep fields. No one of these methods would be at work in Sakhalin. The surface geology is too different for rules of thumb or intuition, dowsers work about as well as flipping a coin, and there's no proven deep fields to drill next door to.

The oil is down there alright, there just aren't surface indications of that fact which were known in the 1930s.

If you want Japan to exploit Sakhalin's oil in the 1930s, you'll need to change the nature of Sakhalin's oil deposits. Either that or advance several basic technologies and geological theories by a few decades.


Bill

Bill, thanks for reading and replying.
That is a technological obstacle, not a geological one. If America has the technology, then Japan can steal it.

Historically there were two types of drill bits used in oil or natural gas drilling rigs, a drag bit and a rock bit:

1. a pdc bithammer bit is used for soft rocks, like sand and clay. The drill string is rotated along with pneumatic pressure, and nibs on the bit shear the rock.
2. a deep hole (also called a roller bit) consists of teeth on wheels which turn as the drill string is rotated. These teeth apply a crushing pressure to the rock, breaking it up into small pieces.

The original patent for the rotary rock bit was issued to Howard Hughes Sr. for his dual cone roller bit in 1909. It consisted of two interlocking wheels. Walter Benona Sharp worked very closely with Hughes in developing the Rock Bit. The success of this bit led to the founding of the Sharp-Hughes Tool Company.
In 1933 two Hughes engineers, one of whom was Ralph Neuhaus,invented the tricone bit, which has three wheels. The Hughes patent for the tricone bit lasted until 1951, after which time other companies started making similar bits.

Deep well drilling is sometimes more importantly characterized by the requirement of having the drill bit finally positioned within a specified radius of its surface starting location. This sometimes requires maneuvering the direction (azimuth) of the drill bit by various techniques (kicking) so as to arrive at the desired location at both the desired depth and within a specified radius of the starting point. The angle of drilling at any arbitrary azimuth can be derived by knowing the TVD (true vertical depth) and the MD (measured depth or hypotenuse) of any given segment.

Measuring the inclination of a wellbore (its deviation from the vertical) is comparatively simple, requiring only a pendulum. Measuring the azimuth (direction with respect to the geographic grid in which the wellbore is running from the vertical), however, was more difficult. In certain circumstances, magnetic fields could be used, but could be influenced by metalwork used inside wellbores, as well as the metalwork used in drilling equipment. The next advance was in the modification of small gyroscopic compasses by the Sperry Corporation, who were making similar compasses for aeronautical navigation. Sperry did this under contract to Sun Oil (who were involved in a lawsuit as described above), and a spin-off company "Sperry Sun" was formed, which brand continues to this day, absorbed into Halliburton. Three components are measured at any given point in a wellbore in order to determine its position: the depth of the point (measured depth), the inclination at the point, and the magnetic azimuth at the point. These 3 components combined are referred to as a "survey". A series of consecutive surveys are needed to track the progress and location of a wellbore.

My second POD must involve spies and researching seismic surveying (all those earthquakes make them interested). Alarmingly, this will probably improve their sonar and navigation technology too. A lot of the initial work on seismic survey dates back to the early 20th century. The Japanese already knew there was coal to look for. Finding oil after 28 years of mining isn't such a reach.

After 1880 , most seismometers were descended from those developed by the team of John Milne, James Alfred Ewing and Thomas Gray, who worked in Japan from 1880-1895. These seismometers used damped horizontal pendulums.

Early seismometers had an arrangement of levers on jeweled bearings, to scratch smoked glass or paper. Later, mirrors reflected a light beam to a direct-recording plate or roll of photographic paper....In mid-twentieth-century systems, the light was reflected to a pair of differential electronic photosensors called a photomultiplier. The voltage generated in the photomultiplier was used to drive galvanometers which had a small mirror mounted on the axis. The moving reflected light beam would strike the surface of the turning drum, which was covered with photo-sensitive paper.

So Japanese seismologists can be let loose on Sakhalin as soon as the ink is dry on the Treaty of Portsmouth. Mining will lead to interest in seismic reflection surveys. To look at the rock strata for coal seams. A technique that was already published (In English, I'll grant you, but Japanese scientists read foreign papers. The same could not be said of American scientists that overlooked many Japanese papers.)

Accelerographs and geophones are often heavy cylindrical magnets with a spring-mounted coil inside. As case moves, the coil tends to stay stationary, so the magnetic field cuts the wires, inducing current in the output wires. They receive frequencies from several hundred hertz down to 4.5 Hz or even as low as 1 Hz with higher quality models....
...Seismometers spaced in an array can also be used to precisely locate, in three dimensions, the source of an earthquake, using the time it takes for seismic waves to propagate away from the hypocenter, the initiating point of fault rupture (See also Earthquake location)...
...Seismographic systems used for petroleum or other mineral exploration historically used an explosive and a wireline of geophones unrolled behind a truck. Now most short-range systems use "thumpers" that hit the ground, and some small commercial systems have such good digital signal processing that a few sledgehammer strikes provide enough signal for short-distance refractive surveys. Exotic cross or two-dimensional arrays of geophones are sometimes used to perform three-dimensional reflective imaging of subsurface features.

Northern Japan is legendary for seismic activity. I'm sure you can see a scenario where seismic data is examined looking for coal seams and something else is discovered instead? Open cast mine blasting would make this more likely to happen by accident, but I think they would be looking at the strata by seismic reflection already. Test boring to that depth is a bit of a gamble, but Japan really needs oil and gas. Since much of the oil is under shallower gas pockets, this is a similar scenario to that of the Texas wildcat drillers.

 

[Bill Cameron]

That is a technological obstacle, not a geological one. If America has the technology, then Japan can steal it. My POD must involve spies.

Perfectgeneral,

No, it is not simply a technological obstacle that can be solved through industrial espionage. If you don't know where to drill isn't doesn't matter whether you know how to drill or not.

As I explained, some US deep deposits just happened to be under shallow deposits and thus were found by accident. US drillers then began drilling under shallow deposits, drilling in previously barren leases between shallow deposits, drilling next door to shallow deposits, and essentially "hunting & pecking" about. Despite that and despite their few "hunt & peck" successes, it wasn't until "petro-geology" theory was more advanced and petroleum prospecting developed to use that theory that the deep fields were really found and exploited.

In the 1930s there are no geological theories to explain those deep deposits and no tools with which to find them so there's nothing for your spies to steal. Unless Japan has the same happy accident the US industry did, i.e. an easily detectable shallow field which just so happens to have a deep field beneath it, they aren't "find" to find squat in Sakhalin because they don't even have the tools with which to look.


Bill

 

[Iori]

Just a thought, perhaps their accident is'nt so much finding a specific kind of deposit like that, but say someone with alot of power and influence in government hearing a rumor from a well respected scientist (who'd guessed correctly) that their were oil deposits somewhere around their and from their on they focus on finding them, developing technologies both indigenously and through espionage searching for them, probably still would'nt find them for awhile, but it would start the process and would end up leading to some technological development that could be applied to other areas in the process.

 

[perfectgeneral]

Just a thought, perhaps their accident is'nt so much finding a specific kind of deposit like that, but say someone with alot of power and influence in government hearing a rumor from a well respected scientist (who'd guessed correctly) that their were oil deposits somewhere around their and from their on they focus on finding them, developing technologies both indigenously and through espionage searching for them, probably still would'nt find them for awhile, but it would start the process and would end up leading to some technological development that could be applied to other areas in the process.

That is essentially what I'm talking about. A seismologist uses reflection seismology (idea already in use) in a wide range of strata. Not so much because they know where to look for petrochemical deposits as because they are looking everywhere under Sakhalin. Seismic survey for earthquake research then to look for resources (coal mostly). Gas pockets show up as bumps in the strata filled with ground water. Drills to take core. Gas discovered dissolved in the deep groundwater. That's good news in itself and seriously boosts the chances for further funding.

Geological Survey of Japan
[FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]In 1882 the GSJ was established in the Ministry of Agriculture and Commerce with the goals to make geological maps of the country, undertake research related to soils for agriculture and explore mineral resources...
[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]...The mission of the GSJ before WWII was to make geological maps of the country, undertake research related to explore coal and mineral resources.[/SIZE][/FONT]

The shallow gas leads to looking around the shallow gas (including under). The deeper oil is found. Pure researchers look just for the looking sometimes. Even then, the researcher can't be sure that what has been detected is oil rich rock. But that layer does seem to pool like a fluid. Weird place for a fluid. Japan needs oil and gas so badly that wheels are put in motion to find out. Once this pays off once it snowballs and the deeper parts of the field are found too.

The Russians (OTL) found the oil in 1977. The gas before that. Forty years early does seem like a big ASB intervention until you take into account Japanese expertise in seismology and hunger for resources. The Russians weren't exactly desperate to find it. Maybe there is more to this sticking point that I am missing, but you are going to have to spell it out a bit more before I will see it. I realise that, in spite of there being oil in the south of the island (south of the 50°N line), they failed to find it before 1945. I'm just saying that if they had the whole island and a bit of luck...

[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular][SIZE=-1]Petroleum Resources of Japan
Yoshinosuki Chitani (2)
AAPG Bulletin
Volume 18 (1934)
[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular][SIZE=-1] A petroleum belt extends from southern Saghalien and Hokkaido to Nagano Prefecture in Honshu Island, along the coast of the Japan Sea. Besides, there are small fields of Shizuoka Prefecture in Honshu and the Island of Taiwan (Formosa). Petroleum deposits in Japan are found exclusively in marine Neogene formations. The chief oil fields in Hokkaido are those of Masuhoro, Ishikari, and Yufutsu, of which Yufutsu is the most important. In the Prefecture of Akita, the oil fields of Kurokawa, Toyokawa, Michikawa-Asahigawa, and Oguni are noteworthy, though at present their aggregate production amounts to only about 108,000 kiloliters a year. The oil fields of Niitsu, Nishiyama, and Higashiyama in Niigata Prefecture have been worked since about 39 years ago and their total product on together with that of minor fields in the vicinities amounted to about 360,000 kiloliters in 1914. Since then the production gradually diminished and was only about 192,000 kiloliters in 1930. In Taiwan, the only field which is now productive is that of Byoritsu. Others are expected to be developed in the future.[/SIZE][/FONT]

http://tle.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/extract/19/3/321
Before World War II, geologists and geophysicists of the Geological Institute (The National Geological Survey) actively researched the country's hydrocarbon potential. Geoscientists from domestic and foreign oil companies also did petroleum exploration and research. The first geologic map of Romania and detailed regional maps were made in this period.

Geophysical Research Corporation (GRC) and Geophysical Service Incorporated (GSI) might be for hire to check out Sakhalin

My Hero: Giichiro Kobayashi chief geologist of the Japanese Geological Survey (surveyed the oilfields of Japan in 1925)

[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular][SIZE=-1]Preliminary Report on the Geology of the Oil Fields in North (Russian) Sakhalin
Giichiro Kobayashi (2)
AAPG Bulletin
Volume 10 (1926)
[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular][SIZE=-1] The area described is the eastern coast of the northern, or Russian, part of Sakhalin Island. The surface features are grouped in lagoon, terrace, hill, and mountain zones. Lagoon formation is particularly discussed as being caused in part by coastal upheaval, formation of sand bars, and lines of faulting. The formations exposed in the oil districts are shales, sandstones, and conglomerates of Tertiary age, grouped in lower, middle, and upper divisions, partly on a physical and partly on a fossil basis. The general strike of the region is north-south, parallel to the coast. Seven main anticlines are marked by pronounced dips and by oil seepages and asphalt beds. Considerable drilling has been done, both by primitive methods and by diamond-drilling, cable tools, and rotary rigs. In the first half of 1925, three or four wells in the Oha field produced 41,741 barrels of oil. An analysis of oil from a depth of 180 meters shows no gasoline. One test well reached a depth of 1,504 meters; at 879 meters 20 barrels of oil were found, and at 1,227 meters 200,000 cubic feet of gas blew out.
[/SIZE][/FONT] ...but it is beyond the scope of this paper to make specific predictions as to location or possible production of the wells...

They knew where to look in 1926. Fact.

Kobayashi, Giichiro

General Remarks on the Geologic and Tectonic Maps of Japan, 1927

Let us suppose that:

1. Kobayashi takes to seismic reflection surveying like a duck to water or recommends commissioning GSI
2. He pursues the North Sakhalin field rather than tectonic maps because...
3. Sakhalin is entirely Japanese and Japan has great need of oil and gas
4. His standing is such that spies and money are put into prospect deep drilling
5. Enough of the oil and gas is exploitable to make a strategic difference in the 1930s and 1940s (the whole point of this premise)

 

[Bill Cameron]

That is essentially what I'm talking about.

Perfectgeneral,

Actually, it's essentially what I'm failing to explain to you.

A seismologist uses reflection seismology (idea already in use) in a wide range of strata. Not so much because they know where to look for petrochemical deposits as because they are looking everywhere under Sakhalin.

What does an oil deposit look like? Let's say I hand you a trace slip from a seismograph, can you then tell me which squiggle is the oil or gas deposit? Don't worry, no one in the 1930s could either.

You're correct in saying primitive reflection seismology is in use by the 1930s, you're incorrect in thinking that any useful information for oil exploration was produced by the technology. They'd thumped hundreds, thousands, of producing wells and still couldn't quite tell the results apart from dry holes. The theory wasn't there yet, the scientific knowledge wasn't advanced enough to make sense of the data.

It's a question of drilling technology and prospecting technology and geological theory. You got to have all three to begin finding and exploiting deep deposits.

Pure researchers look just for the looking sometimes.

I don't care how well funded or how desperate Japan's researchers are. They won't have enough time or money to sink holes every few hundred meters all over Sakhalin in the hopes that they'll find something.

The Russians (OTL) found the oil in 1977. The gas before that.

The Russians found those deposits because geological theory told them there was a good likelihood of them being there. Geological theory Japan in the 1930s does not have.

Forty years early does seem like a big ASB intervention until you take into account Japanese expertise in seismology and hunger for resources.

Seismology does not equate "petro-geology" theory. It's still ASB unless you invoke a geological POD.

Maybe there is more to this sticking point that I am missing, but you are going to have to spell it out a bit more before I will see it. I realise that, in spite of there being oil in the south of the island (south of the 50°N line), they failed to find it before 1945. I'm just saying that if they had the whole island and a bit of luck...

Perhaps it's because you're failing to think in 3D? Those test holes your Japanese are busily drilling the length and breadth of Sakhalin in the hopes they'll stumble across something need to cover both an area and a depth. You can drill all the holes you want as close together as you want to a depth of 3000 meters and it's won't mean a damn thing if the deposit you're blindly groping for is at 3100 meters.

Throw in a geological POD, just one shallow deposit that will show Japan where to begin just what happened in the US, and your timeline works. It's that simple.


Bill

 

[The Red]

Lets say regardless of drilling techniques thy mang to discover the oil. They're nebver going to defeat the Chinese and then the Soviets are going to arrive.

 

[Timmy811]

Wasn't there oil in Manchuria that could have been exploited by the Japanese, but just wasn't discovered until the '50s? I remember an interesting thread on that.

 

[Bill Cameron]

Wasn't there oil in Manchuria that could have been exploited by the Japanese, but just wasn't discovered until the '50s? I remember an interesting thread on that.

Timmy,

Here's a quick way to answer your question; read all my posts in this thread and whenever I type "Sakhalin" say "Manchuria" instead.


Bill

 

[perfectgeneral]

Thanks Bill, I think I get it now. It may as well be shallow wells at first that make Japan less hungry for oil. May as well use the Manchu oil and stick to one POD. The rest of Sakhalin will fall to them later anyway.

Lets say regardless of drilling techniques they manage to discover the oil. They're never going to defeat the Chinese and then the Soviets are going to arrive.

They had beaten the Chinese, this was almost a large scale guerilla warfare in the hills. The plains were clear. If they pull back to the Yellow River the Chinese either have to let them hold there and surrender or stay hiding in the hills. They gain more territory (right up to the Yellow River ) from a surrender.

The Soviet Chinese or Soviet Russians?

Either way they will do fine. Although it is more likely that they would enjoy a period of peace and resources until about 1942 (when Russia is busy) and then take Eastern Siberia.

I'll see where Stalin moved the factories to. Just east of the Urals is well out of the way of Japan.

 

[DValdron]

All right, suppose we assume that there's a prior geological POD?

Are there any particular reasons to assume that such a geological POD is impossible, or vanishingly unlikely?

Are there any compelling reasons to assert that such a geological POD would have significant geophysical consequences to result in meaningful butterflies?

If not, then I'd be willing to take this as a given, and say go ahead.

What happens next? With no disrespect to anyone, its a fascinating discussion, but I think we're a little bit sidetracked here. I'd really like to see where this timeline goes in terms of Japan's, China's, and Russia's moves.

 

[The Red]

They had beaten the Chinese, this was almost a large scale guerilla warfare in the hills. The plains were clear. If they pull back to the Yellow River the Chinese either have to let them hold there and surrender or stay hiding in the hills. They gain more territory (right up to the Yellow River ) from a surrender.

The Chinese managed to hold down a million Japanese troops in the Chinese theater and the belief that it was just guerilla fighting is mistaken although it constituted a large part. Remember the Nationalists and Communists held the Japanese for 8 years before August Storm.

The Soviet Chinese or Soviet Russians?

The Sovit Union

Either way they will do fine. Although it is more likely that they would enjoy a period of peace and resources until about 1942 (when Russia is busy) and then take Eastern Siberia.

Its been agreed many times the a Japanese invasion of Siberia would fall on its face. If they attacked in 1942 it would be even worse for them.

 

[perfectgeneral]

Indulge me. Put up an argument.

This is a Japan that has greater resources and that has had some time at peace to develop.

 

[Bill Cameron]

Are there any particular reasons to assume that such a geological POD is impossible, or vanishingly unlikely?

DValdron,

Seeing as the happy accident that allowed US drillers to "discover" and exploit deep deposits only happened in one region of the world, I'd say vanishingly unlikely. However, I'd still use it as a POD in this situation because, as I'll explain later, it creates far fewer problems than the other POD

Are there any compelling reasons to assert that such a geological POD would have significant geophysical consequences to result in meaningful butterflies?

Why are you worried about butterflies? You regularly pooh-pooh concerns over them in other threads.

With no disrespect to anyone, its a fascinating discussion, but I think we're a little bit sidetracked here.

You only think we've been sidetracked because you don't yet comprehend the very real butterflies the non-geological POD would have. Let me step back and explain.

Various members here have various "specialties". We've Ottoman experts, aircraft experts, warship experts, experts on the twisted genealogies European royal houses, you name it. While not an expert, my career has given me a bit more insight into heavy industry and the technologies involved than the average poster. That's why I step into threads like this when someone in all innocence decides Andrew Jackson can drill an oil well or Augustus could have a phonograph.

If Japan in the 1930s was able to find, drill, and exploit the oil and gas deposits we now know are beneath Sakhalin and Manchuria Japan would have to have technologies and theories well beyond those of the 1930s. While some may argue that those technologies and theories would produce few effects in other areas, that is produce few butterflies, the actual fact of the matter is that such advances would produce real and potentially drastic butterflies. Perfectgeneral alluded to one such butterfly in an earlier post when he mentioned sonar.

Leaving aside dozens of other things like metallurgy and geology, consider seismographs. They're devices that pick up and analyze sound waves and they'd be critical to any Japanese ability to locate and exploit deep oil and gas deposits just as they were critical for petroleum exploration beginning in the 1950s. Japan of the 1930s will need seismographs with 1950s capabilities and that in turn means Japan in the 1930s would have 1950s electronics.

Such seismographs wouldn't be developed in a vacuum. The electronics and materials it requires would available for many other devices, devices like sonar, radar, communications, cryptography, navigation, fire control, computing, and a whole host of other applications. Such advances wouldn't have been made only in Japan either. If you can, try to imagine WW2 fought with, at the very least, 1950s electronics.

Beginning the see the butterflies I've been trying to avoid?

Perfectgeneral's timeline can either have a vanishingly small geological POD or a monstrous tsunami of a technological POD. I think the timeline is best served by the geological POD.


Bill

 

[perfectgeneral]

I agree Bill. If I have to make a choice between a freak discovery of oil and a 20+ year advancement of technology across several interrelated fields, I'll go for the wildcat strike.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Query:
What if some eccentric millionaire got convinced to drill a hole based on some charlatan's gimcrack theory, maybe even looking for 'cosmic essence' or something. And just happened to find oil. I know the chances are so slim that such a random drilling would produce anything, but at least it provides a rationale for that first deep well without geological PoDs which are not normally allowed here.

Of course, Japan would then drill hundreds of deep wells in other places predicted by this theory which would all come up dry, probably, wasting bucket loads of money and drilling resources - but at least they'd have the initial oil?

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Frankly I want MORE discussion of the technology "tangent". I'm an electrical engineer, but I'm not up on the mechanical or geological sides of things. This is great information and a real boon. That diversity of knowledge areas is one reason I love this site above all others. Thanks Bill, General.