What if Japan goes South West in WW2? - Story (Complete)

The story is now largely complete - there is a fair bit of tidying up to come and possibly a few minor additions. I will likely put up some form of Epilogue soon, beyond that I am happy with this as a natural endpoint. Thank you for those who have followed, commented and liked the sections, it would not have been as long a story without those signs of encouragement.
 
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Wow Antiochus, that's a fantastic battle. I think we can see how the war would proceed from this point; with the IJA on the back foot in multiple places, and the IJN crippled, there's only really one way things can go.

A good timeline, thank you for posting it.
 
Hopefully the 'Midway' style finish felt plausible. I was attempting to recreate the challenges facing Nagumo, and attempting to illustrate that even if things had been done better by the Japanese a Midway style outcome was very possible. My own view from my reading is that the Japanese Navy had exposed itself to far more risk than was appropriate given their fleet size.

I am currently putting together a brief scene set a week or two later giving a sense of where things ended up in the locations I have covered. I am thinking about putting up a few post war paragraphs giving a high level summary of how things went wrong for Japan after this, but am a little wary as I worry about plausibility.
 
Excellent Job.
To many WW2 TLs have a great climax soon after the POD, then they drag on to 1945. A short epilogue sounds perfect.
 
Epilogue

April 24th 1942

17:00hrs North of Singapore


General Alexander inspected the burnt out Japanese tank, it was small, well built but very lacking in armour. One of the advancing Matilda II's had made short work of it, as it had a pair of child sized anti-tank guns. The stench of decay and numerous flies served as a testament to the effectiveness of first the 25 pounders and then the heavily armoured British tanks. Near where he stood a company of the Japanese Imperial guard had opted to fight to the last when surrounded, it looked like a poor decision in hindsight. He had not believed the stories of the Japanese tenacity in battle until today, it seemed he might need to adjust his approach.

His first localised attack out of Singapore had pushed the Japanese back several miles. Far to the north the 2nd British division and several brigades from the 17th were pushing south from Thailand. There was a long way to go before Malaya was saved, but it now looked like a matter of time. The SOE reported an increasingly anti-Japanese sentiment amongst the occupied areas of Malaya, it seemed the repeated requisitions of food and any other supplies as well as the hard and frequently cruel hand of the Japanese secret police was having an impact. British rule now looked significantly more appealing when compared to the current situation.

The war at sea had produced another favourable outcome, the Battle of Wake Island had cost the Japanese four fleet carriers, whilst the US had come out with only one lost. It was the the US Navy's greatest victory in its brief history, and now the Americans were now pondering how to relieve the Philippines. Tentatively called Operation Watchtower, it called for the opening of a supply route, key to his preferred version was regaining Malaya and securing French Indo-China. There were assorted options, the most likely to work in his view was an air bridge from Vietnam, the sea route was just too risky with the Japanese surface fleet still intact.

Slim's advance was stalled near the Mekong river, logistics was his main enemy now. The Japanese had brought in a further infantry brigade from China whilst simultaneously evacuating some of their senior personnel. Relations between the Vichy French and the Japanese Army were deteriorating from an already low base, in a curious move reflecting the weakness of both parties the Japanese had pulled out of Northern Vietnam and forced the French to do the same in the South.

News from the Philippines remained mixed, as far as his staff could tell the American forces were too weak to evict the Japanese, in turn the Japanese army was not strong enough to make further gains. The Japanese faced a problem in that the Philippine army was getting better trained by the day even if it was not going to see any major improvements in its equipment.

As he returned to his headquarters he passed the old front lines, regular artillery barrages and the use of trenches had left a scene reminiscent of the last war. His field HQ had just moved north of the crossing point onto Singapore, it was his his way of indicating to his men that the direction of the campaign had changed.
 
I had a few thoughts on what sort of impact the changes in this timeline would have, some of them are listed below. I would say take them with a pinch of salt, as they are less well researched and thought out than the rest of the story. They do however indicate the sort of direction I would have taken the story if I had attempted to reach the end of the war.



Post war review

The events of late 1942 were instrumental to the decline of Japan. The capture of Saigon and the eviction of the Japanese army from Malaya left the oilfields of Borneo dangerously exposed to air attack. B24 bombers based in Saigon and Malaya carried out regular raids in 1943 bringing all production from them to a halt. Industrial production gradually declined as stockpiles of key resources were used up, the negative impact on the war effort steadily built up.

In early 1943 the US felt strong enough to force a large convoy to Manila from Singapore, prior to that the air bridge had kept a small air force operational there along with a mostly functional land force. In mid 1943 the Japanese abandoned the last of their positions on Luzon, modern American tanks and artillery were too much for them to handle. With the landings in Borneo in late 1943 the route became fairly secure and a number of convoys subsequently made the trip safely.

Fuel shortages kept the Japanese battleship fleet in the home islands until their final action off Okinawa in 1944, there the bulk of the Japanese surface fleet was sent out to destroy the allied invasion force. After suffering from heavy air attacks the fleet engaged a mixed force of British and US battleships. In the ensuing action the significant advances in radar and support from allied aircraft led to a decisive allied victory. With the Japanese fleet destroyed the invasion of Okinawa paved the way for air superiority over parts of the Home Islands and the imposition of an effective blockade.

On the Chinese mainland the offensives of late 1943 surprised both the Chinese and the Japanese in their effectiveness, with the support of a British and Indian corps a coastal offensive regained Hong Kong whilst the Chinese army regained Wuchang and several other inland cities. The steady erosion of the Japanese industrial base caused ammunition shortages as well as reducing aircraft and vehicle production below the peaks of mid 1942. Fuel shortages meant the Japanese army lost much of the mobility it had once enjoyed, giving the Chinese soldiers the ability to fight on more equal terms.

In Japan the political environment turned increasingly toxic after the battle of Wake Island. Moderates found their position greatly weakened and an effort by figures including Yamamoto and Yamashita to push for peace resulted in a series of murders by nationalist officers within both the army and Navy. Yamamoto was one of the casualties, his death further fuelling the antagonism between the services.

Victory over Japan came through the use of an atomic weapon, the failure of conventional methods and the desire to avoid a land invasion left the Allies with little choice. The final year of conflict was largely fought in China, the Nationalist regained Shanghai and in the process regained much of the credibility they had lost earlier in the war.

The careers of those involved took various turns. General MacArthur and Wainwright both remained in the Philippines after the war helping to modernise their military and were much loved by the populace. Admiral Phillips became a senior figure in the Royal Navy and a supporter of maintaining a suitable carrier force. Admiral Hart would later run the US Navy's submarine service. General Percival retired after the war citing exhaustion, Slim on the other hand went on to become Chief the Defence Staff. Major Smith took over the family farm and Lt-Col Tanaka became a respected anti-war politician.

The impact of events in the East on the War in Europe were hard to quantify.

In North Africa the impact seemed limited, the messy stalemate achieved at the 1st battle of Gazala might have been far worse had several of the divisions present been sent east. The number of ships deployed to Asian waters certainly made operations in the Mediterranean more challenging and costly.

The string of allied successes in early 1942 were thought to be a major motivation for the very friendly reception by the french forces during Operation Torch, and the deciding factor in persuading the French fleet to rapidly put to sea to join the allies when Germany began its occupation of Vichy France.

General Alexander would later cite the the hard lessons learnt in Malaya as the motivation for his flanking move in the mountains around Monte Cassino. On the other hand he acknowledged that the experience of fighting Japanese tanks led him to initially underestimate those produced by Germany.
 
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I just finished reading this story, which was very good! I have a question: what were the 6 Japanese fleet carriers doing before the Valentine Pearl Harbor?
 
I just finished reading this story, which was very good! I have a question: what were the 6 Japanese fleet carriers doing before the Valentine Pearl Harbor?

Thank you for the feedback, glad to hear it is still being read!

If memory serves, (it was written a while back).

Most start the campaign providing air cover for the Malayan landings, a fairly key role. Afterwards they are acting as a key part of the deterrent against possible US fleet involvement, this is alongside most of the battleships. Whilst being kept back they are training for a port raid, initially this is intended to be wherever the British/Dutch Australians concentrate, but then is shifted to Pearl Harbor. Hopefully the timeline for where the ships are is credible, I did my best to keep things plausible.

Part of the problem for Japan is ensuring the key ships are not lost to submarines, and that they are ready in case the US intervenes. My thinking was that the US pacific fleet is still the greatest threat in the mind of the Japanese planners.
 

CalBear

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I just finished reading this story, which was very good! I have a question: what were the 6 Japanese fleet carriers doing before the Valentine Pearl Harbor?
Please do not resurrect dead threads.

This entirely well deserved compliment to the author could and should have been made via PM.

Thank you.
 
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