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What if the Japanese military do not rise to the prominent position in government that they did IOTL and don't go about with their unauthorised invasion of Manchuria, and later the rest of China?
Will Zhang Zuolin remain the virtual ruler of Manchuria? How will the Chinese Civil War work out? What about Sino-German cooperation? Are the Euro-Japano-American concessions and colonies around for longer than IOTL?
Depending on the ideas generated I might write a TL