RamscoopRaider
Donor
Aside from needing a hell of a POD that may well butterfly WWII as we know it, Japan is not really capable of being a third side in the Cold War. A lot of their economic growth was part of being in the broader US alliance system, and would be hindered by the costs of holding on to an Empire. Remember in WWII the Japanese economy was the second smallest of the Great Powers, ahead of only Italy. They can become a regional power, but would have to really be worried about China
How? Tbe results of such a huge, seemingly ASB, occurance are going to depend on the POD. And you'll need a damned good POD to pull that off.
Agree with previous posters. There is not way with post Pearl Harbor that USA and Japan make peace and USA allows Japan keeping occupied regions. Crushing of Japan was target of USA from beginning. You would need much stronger Japan before USA is willingful make peace with Japan. And with such POD there would be very different WW2.
Cryhavoc101
Donor
France does not fall in 1940, Italy makes the only winning move - Russia quietly consumes Large tracts of Eastern Europe and then jumps in with its freedom loving brothers in the west to crush the evil Nazi Germans who have enslaved half of Europe.
Of course they demand a share of the spoils.
Japan not seeing any real weakness among the Wallies - makes no move against them or the Russians and instead continues its low level war vs the Chinese who fragment into two main factions - the Nationalist supported by the USA, France and the British Commonwealth and the Communist supported by Russia - whom the Japanese cannot defeat and instead settle much of the coastal areas and Korea etc while playing both factions off vs each other
China becomes a battlefield for the 3 powers by proxy and Iran is invaded by both the Russians and the British
Fast forward and you have the post de-colonised Western powers dominated by the USA, balanced by a powerful Euro bloc (including Germany and the Italian Commonwealth), Russia dominates what we knew as the Warsaw pact and made lots of trouble in the 50s-60s and 70s by stirring up Communist factions in those nations undergoing 'decolonisation' and many a proxy war is fought mostly in Southeast Asia and Africa.
Great India becomes the new player on the block and by the early 2000s, while it had been Western facing now plays each of the 3 factions of against each other to its own advantage. (its effectively this TLs modern China although using a Parliamentary democracy system of government, universal suffrage and a 'British' style legal system as it does today)
There that should serve!
Of course they demand a share of the spoils.
Japan not seeing any real weakness among the Wallies - makes no move against them or the Russians and instead continues its low level war vs the Chinese who fragment into two main factions - the Nationalist supported by the USA, France and the British Commonwealth and the Communist supported by Russia - whom the Japanese cannot defeat and instead settle much of the coastal areas and Korea etc while playing both factions off vs each other
China becomes a battlefield for the 3 powers by proxy and Iran is invaded by both the Russians and the British
Fast forward and you have the post de-colonised Western powers dominated by the USA, balanced by a powerful Euro bloc (including Germany and the Italian Commonwealth), Russia dominates what we knew as the Warsaw pact and made lots of trouble in the 50s-60s and 70s by stirring up Communist factions in those nations undergoing 'decolonisation' and many a proxy war is fought mostly in Southeast Asia and Africa.
Great India becomes the new player on the block and by the early 2000s, while it had been Western facing now plays each of the 3 factions of against each other to its own advantage. (its effectively this TLs modern China although using a Parliamentary democracy system of government, universal suffrage and a 'British' style legal system as it does today)
There that should serve!
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
The Japanese could be better at English and realize the Hull Note was not talking about Manchuria, and thus agree to the terms and settle for peace?
This is where your scenario falls apart. Either Japan will move to block war materiel (what directly lead to the war) or the Chinese will bleed them dry.
Cryhavoc101
Donor
Not if the Chinese factions are also fighting each other as much if not more than they are fighting the Japanese
Like I said, they have a choice. They can move to cut off outside supplies to the Chinese or not.
If they don't, the Chinese will bleed them out.
If they do, they bring down the embargo that lead to the Pacific War.
It could be that the USSR is more aggressive in the Manchurian border clashes throughout the mid 1930s and Japan moves into a far more anti-Soviet stance. Ishiwara and Co manage to out manoeuvre Tojo and argue that China isn't the priority and that the USSR is an existential threat to Japanese survival.
Japan avoids entering an actual war with China and instead solidifies her position in Manchuria and keeps reforming her army (already happening prior to the invasion of China).
If Japan is lucky she could maybe wind up with Indochina as some sort of deal with the allies.
Not totally impossible, but probably not super likely.
Japan avoids entering an actual war with China and instead solidifies her position in Manchuria and keeps reforming her army (already happening prior to the invasion of China).
If Japan is lucky she could maybe wind up with Indochina as some sort of deal with the allies.
Not totally impossible, but probably not super likely.
Cryhavoc101
Donor
It works both ways - The level of supplies from the Western powers pre - occupation of FIC was never going to be enough to stand up the 300 NRA "Divisions" that OTL were equipped by 1945 'unless' Japan is at war with the USA
With no fall of France there is no invasion of FIC and with no invasion of FIC there is no Fuel Embargo.
With less support and more infighting among the various 'Balkanised' Chinese factions over the same period of time, subtle reforms in Japan and with no fall of France - Japan is not signing the Tripartite Pact (Sept 1940)
The USA joins the war against Germany alongside Britain and France by 1942.
Japan Stays Neutral and steers a course that avoids a direct confrontation with the Western powers and the CCCP post fall of Germany.
The Japanese war effort was in deep trouble well before the fall of France.
Admiral Beez
Banned
Can you please provide some POD or premise? Otherwise you're just shooting off tourettes-like what ifs.
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About the only way I see Japan coming away as anything other than utterly defeated or (far less likely) completely victorious is if they get the bomb first. Once America reached mainland Japan and had the choice of invasion or nukes, Japan's best move was to surrender at that point and pray for mercy. Simply put, once they started losing to an opponent that wanted to destroy everything about them, they were fucked on a level that they couldn't comprehend.
America was at war with Nazism and fascism before it was at war with Germany and Italy. America didn't compartmentalize Japan the same way; they were at war with Japan in its totality. For America to allow the Japanese Empire to continue to exist would require either no Pearl Harbor or an oh-shit moment before the war is over.
America was at war with Nazism and fascism before it was at war with Germany and Italy. America didn't compartmentalize Japan the same way; they were at war with Japan in its totality. For America to allow the Japanese Empire to continue to exist would require either no Pearl Harbor or an oh-shit moment before the war is over.
That troubleis exactly why they're stuckin the dilemma I've pointed out repeatedly. The only real way out was to cut off the supplies coming into China, which ultimately leads to defeat. The alternative is a long, slow, nasty defeat in China. Most likely made all the faster when the Soviets finish in Europe.
There's really no easy way out for Japan, and certainly no keeping the empire.
Japan was bleeding to death in China, due to how China was able and willing to bleed them dry. You'd need Japan to beat China, which is difficult, mainly because organized authority's collapsed in a civil war, infrastructure's gone, and the nation's torn apart by warlords. There was nothing to beat, and ever step they took united China - against them. They could cut off supplies, but as @Osakadave has pointed out, that would lead to conflict with somebody that could crush them.
That being said, if they can avoid the plunge into China, and focus on Russia, they might be able to make off with a portion of Eastern Siberia, but Chiang will eventually try to get back at Japan - he hated Japan, and would be desperate to reclaim Taiwan and Manchuria.
That being said, if they can avoid the plunge into China, and focus on Russia, they might be able to make off with a portion of Eastern Siberia, but Chiang will eventually try to get back at Japan - he hated Japan, and would be desperate to reclaim Taiwan and Manchuria.