What if Japan did not comply to the US Demands in 1853 and Matthew Perry had attacked

Lucky

Well, if they got lucky then they would have ended up with something akin to what happened in China with the British and other Europeans, a treaty port. Of course the USN wasn't that large back then so they couldn't do a whole lot of anything. Perhaps if they'd exagerrated the size of the USN when the attack occurred? Something along the lines of "You better watch out we have another couple of hundred ships to devastate you."
 
I don't think Perry would have done more than your standard punitive expedition. He was bluffing and he knew it. He'd have done some damage to port facilities and sunk ships, maybe something else spectacular like looting the palace or such, and gone home in the knowledge of having taught those savages a lesson.
 
Yeah, Perry would've just bombarded some coastal Japanese cities and depending on his intent he'd either have wowed the Japanese into conceding to his demands or left only to return a bit later with an even stronger show of American/European power and gunpowder.
In the end Japanese defiance would've just meant a temporary pause in history as we know it and then a return to the same old same old with some damage on Japanese property included.
 
I don't think Perry would have done more than your standard punitive expedition. He was bluffing and he knew it. He'd have done some damage to port facilities and sunk ships, maybe something else spectacular like looting the palace or such, and gone home in the knowledge of having taught those savages a lesson.

To be fair, this could have pretty big effects.

OTOH, it's not like Japan didn't have cities bombarded by westerners OTL.
 
The guns would have wowed the Japanese as they did OTL, the real question is what would occur if they simply told Perry to toss off. Perry was at a disadvantage in terms of numbers, and supplies, yet his firepower was awe inspiring at the time. USS Mississippi for example had two ten-inch, and eight eight-inch Paixhan guns. They had a range of almost two miles, and that made the Shogun with in shooting distance of the Americans in Edo.

Of course after the intial attack the Americans have to run on home. The options then are going back with more force, or doing what most other european nations at the time did, and just comply with the Bakufu's regulations on foriegn contact.

I'd see Britain joining in if America really tried to force the hand of the Japanese. I'd expect the Shogun to agree at that point, just cause much of his power base is held with in containing the ruling clans. Heck he'd have a big problem if his palace is destroyed, as by law the various clans are not required to send their familes to live in a "well defended, and stocked" section of the Shoguns palace if it is damaged.
 

CalBear

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The potential is here for it to turn out REALLY bad for the Japanese.

If the Dutch, French, British and other European powers get involved in a "wog-bashing" expedition as well as the U.S. Japan goes the way of China, except without enough strategic depth to keep most of the country foreigner free.

Japan might never coalesce into the Country we know today but with each Island being a separate nation or ongoing overseas possession (e.g. Hong Kong, Java).

OTL was, by far, the best result that Japan could have hoped for in the 1800's.
 
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