What if Japan avoided attacking Pearl Harbour?


Yes, I've had it for over a year and it's probably the best on the pre-war/early war situation in the Philippines and the Far East. It also gives a great insight into how the Japanese attack was such a near-run thing. If their attack had been delayed by as little as 3 months, the Philippines would have been a very tough nut for them to crack. The amount of military equipment in the pipeline to the Philippines was huge. The USAFFE might have been eventually been defeated thru a Japanese blockade, but the Japanese casualties would have been an order of magnitude higher and it would have taken far longer.
 
Yes, I've had it for over a year and it's probably the best on the pre-war/early war situation in the Philippines and the Far East. It also gives a great insight into how the Japanese attack was such a near-run thing. If their attack had been delayed by as little as 3 months, the Philippines would have been a very tough nut for them to crack. The amount of military equipment in the pipeline to the Philippines was huge. The USAFFE might have been eventually been defeated thru a Japanese blockade, but the Japanese casualties would have been an order of magnitude higher and it would have taken far longer.

My understanding is that over a million tons of equipment and supplies was on the West Coast on December 7, all allocated for the Philippines, and the hold up was shipping. More time and that rather vast amount of stuff gets there. Not to mention additional fighter and bomber groups, airfields that actually get completed with proper facilities, time for a proper air defense organization and sufficient staff to man it etc.

Time is definitely the Japanese enemy.

I do think that Pearl Harbor can be cancelled and the Japanese attack, particularly when it involves US personnel at Guam, Wake, Shanghai, the embassy Marines in North China, and most certainly the Philippines means all out war.

As to Isolationist resistance, it would certainly be severely marginalized if the US military is attacked by the Japanese. Toss in the information of Japanese atrocities such as the Bataan Death March and Isolationists as a political force are finished politically.

The danger however is whether Hitler has the news of Pearl Harbor to fire up his enthusiasm to declare war on the United States. If he waits, the political momentum possibly shifts dangerously against "Germany First" and that could have very serious long term consequences.
 
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