What if Japan avoided attacking Pearl Harbour?

Deleted member 94680

Still, isolationism was a major force even in 1941 America, while the American people would agree with sending support and lend lease to the Allies, Roosevelt did not have the majority support to directly intervene in WW2, pearl harbor provided the cb for that. If the Americans intervene due to a Japanese invasion of the colonies, and lose early battles to the Japanese, I think that the isolationists would be heavily questioning why we Americans are throwing away American lives for imperialism, possibly forcing Roosevelt to seek a settlement. Of course, public opinion could be swayed due to the humanitarian crimes, but the isolationists still need to be overcome.

And addressing your first point, I did say in my first reply that they may not want to defend the colonies, but I also said that the isolationists could force Roosevelt to seek a peace if the Americans lose early on.

Did you read the post with the opinion poll?

As to the bit I've highlighted in bold, that's just garbage.
 
Why bother with the Briitsh colonies?

I've often wondered that. Or a question very like it: 'What if Japan had only attacked the DEI?'. Would the British go to war with Japan for the East Indies, facing enemies in both Europe and Asia and risking Singapore? I don't believe Churchill would have hesitated to go to war, though he may have taken the opportunity to reinforce Malaya first.

And yes, I know Japan wanted Malayan rubber, and therefore 'had' to attack the colony.
 
I've often wondered that. Or a question very like it: 'What if Japan had only attacked the DEI?'. Would the British go to war with Japan for the East Indies, facing enemies in both Europe and Asia and risking Singapore? I don't believe Churchill would have hesitated to go to war, though he may have taken the opportunity to reinforce Malaya first.

And yes, I know Japan wanted Malayan rubber, and therefore 'had' to attack the colony.

I guess what's the point in Singapore if not to deter stuff like this.

Also I mean, first Japan nicks the French colonies, then the Dutch ones. And keeps building up forces.

America and Britain aren't stupid. They'll know what's coming, and may think it's better to strike sooner.
 
Still, isolationism was a major force even in 1941 America, while the American people would agree with sending support and lend lease to the Allies, Roosevelt did not have the majority support to directly intervene in WW2, pearl harbor provided the cb for that. If the Americans intervene due to a Japanese invasion of the colonies, and lose early battles to the Japanese, I think that the isolationists would be heavily questioning why we Americans are throwing away American lives for imperialism, possibly forcing Roosevelt to seek a settlement. Of course, public opinion could be swayed due to the humanitarian crimes, but the isolationists still need to be overcome.

And addressing your first point, I did say in my first reply that they may not want to defend the colonies, but I also said that the isolationists could force Roosevelt to seek a peace if the Americans lose early on.

I mean... you've barely addressed the points made by other people and are just repeating your set of talking points about, as far as I can tell, the weak moral character of the American public when faced with initial defeat.
That America fought on IOTL you're laying squarely at the ability to rally around Pearl, which apparently no other Japanese act could ever provide a substitute for under any circumstances.

Japan by this stage has committed ghastly crimes in China, seized FIC, and in this hypothetical launched war without warning on Britain and Holland in the East. And you think the American public and leadership would think "well, they may seize French, Chinese, Dutch and British territory in the region without warning, but I'm sure they'll never seize American territory in the region without warning! What's that about oil? Meh! No war!"

I'm betting you're not going to budge on this and so for that reason I'm out.
 
I've often wondered that. Or a question very like it: 'What if Japan had only attacked the DEI?'. Would the British go to war with Japan for the East Indies, facing enemies in both Europe and Asia and risking Singapore? I don't believe Churchill would have hesitated to go to war, though he may have taken the opportunity to reinforce Malaya first.

And yes, I know Japan wanted Malayan rubber, and therefore 'had' to attack the colony.

The problem for Japan was that in order to secure and hold the the DEI long term they needed to protect their supply lines, which meant controlling the Phillipines and Malaya. The DEI were of course only needed because their warmongering ways meant nobody wanted to trade with them.
 
How, may I ask, is that garbage?

Because early American defeats aren't going to make the American people scared enough to agitate for peace.

There was already an existing undercurrent of prejudice against Japan, in part because of American investment in China as the plucky underdog. There's just going to be an increased hatred of the dastardly Nips who must have underhandedly stabbed our brave American boys, and our good little Filipino friends in the back.

It doesn't hurt that America was well aware of it's ability to outproduce Japan economically and industrially on a near incredible scale. This isn't like the backstory to The Man in the High Castle*. America in 1941 had a ludicruously larger economic potential than any other nation on the planet. Just looking at OTL- as of the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, the Kido Butai was the largest carrier force ever assembled. It's supremacy lasted until July 1942 when the USN gave it a bloody nose at Midway.

Six months. That's the length of supremacy Pearl Harbor bought.

*I love that show but the timeline is purely fantasy. There was absolutely no way the Axis could have prevailed against America.
 

Deleted member 94680

perhaps, yamamoto gets his decisive battle somewhere near the carolines. how would that play out?

Well, apparently, whoever has the least bushido spirit world lose and then surrender.

I kid.

Depends on the forces involved, I'd say.
 
The plan to attack Pearl Harbor had a real hard sell to the Imperial Navies High Command after all they had plan that they had worked on for decades and they believed they had perfected. So attacking the Philipine's with out attacking Pearl Harbor is readily believable and actual what the Japanese plan had been all along.

Also remember the US navy would be walking into a firestorm of Japanese aviation from the Zero right down the Betty and Nell bombers. Imagine an attack on the American battle line just prior to the two fleet going head to head with Zeros for fighter cover. Battle Plan Orange envisioned attack on the Japanese held Micronesia and then on to the Philipines. This is a campaign that could get very messy very quickly.
 
But would Roosevelt have managed to get Congress and the public to support a war with Japan, on the basis that they are defending imperialism and colonialism. I hardly think a rallying cry of "Save the dutch and english colonies" would have the same effect as "Remember Pearl Harbor". I highly doubt it. Even if the US had declared war it would be a USA "woken from its slumber" and full of a terrible rage, they would instead fight the war halfheartedly. If the Japanese manage to score a few early victories, public opinion would turn massively against the war and isolationists would be screaming why are we defending colonialism, and in short order a peace would have been sought with Japan.

The US was virtually in a state of war with Germany throughout the majority of 1941; it's very likely that the US and Germany would have ended up at war soon enough. It isn't difficult for them to finally move in sometime 1942 for the same reason they declared during WW1. That, and they were going to support Britain against the Germans. If Britain ends up in a war against Japan, it doesn't become a war to save the colonies. It's a war to protect an ally and its capability to wage war against a foe that both nations agree needs to fall.

And don't discount the China lobby, either. Whatever the colonialists do in their own colonies is hard to compare with the Japanese actions in China (Nanking et al), combined with the Japanese encirclement of the Philippines, combined with them strangling and cutting off contact with China (and threatening Australia and New Zealand) would be too much for risk. And it's not like the Japanese are liberating those regions; they are subjecting them to their own brand of colonialism: the colonialism argument doesn't exactly lend it much credence.

And, if the Japanese pass by the US, that gives them more time to fortify the Philippines and train/expand the army even more, while the small island bases also become much tougher nuts to crack. Combine that with the Two Ocean navy finally coming into play the later it drags out, the US will have a fleet that will be much larger and much newer than anything the Japanese have. And, so long as the US has the Philippines, that's a dagger pointed at the heart of the Japanese Empire. The Japanese can't live with the Sword of Damocles hovering above its head.

The mistake here is the same one the Japanese took. They look at the US and see them as weak and unwilling to fight. Even discounting the surprise attack, the US lost quite a lot at the start of the war. From the Philippines to Wake island, they were driven from their Pacific possessions. That would have been the perfect time to bow out. The core of the fleet was gutted and they had lost all of their possessions, but they didn't. In this situation, the US still maintains their entire fleet, and the Japanese are continuing to be even more aggressive and expansionist.

They've occupied Korea, China, French Indochina, and now the Dutch East Indies and the British East Indies. They are certainly not fighting a war to liberate them; they are conquering foreign territory to try to get relief from embargoes placed upon them because of prior heinous actions! If anything, the trend was rising for intervention throughout the proceeding year, with clear majorities in favor for it.

It also doesn't help that Japan's actual potential for warmaking (3% of world total, 1937) was roughly equivalent to Italy (2.5% of world total, 1937). They had just superheated their own economy in order to keep up the construction that they did maintain. The Japanese were quite aware of the economic disparity, which was the reason behind the surprise attack in the first place. To continue to let the US build up was untenable; any further aggression by them would result in such plans being accelerated, as they had previously.
 

Deleted member 94680

perhaps, yamamoto gets his decisive battle somewhere near the carolines. how would that play out?

Also, as this thread is "What if Japan avoided attacking Pearl Harbour?" why do you think Yamamoto would be fighting anyone in the Carolines?
 
perhaps, yamamoto gets his decisive battle somewhere near the carolines. how would that play out?

They would have to wait awhile. The US warplans did not involve charging across the Pacific like the 7th Cavalry and even if they did, the support system was not in place to back it up.
 
True, it would take awhile for the US Navy to come but while the Americans are getting organized the Japanese will over run all the territory they seized in OTL. The Kido Butai could be in the Southeast Asian Campaign from day one. That could make life even worse for the Allies than OTL. Possibly causing the collapse of Allied resistance to collapse even quicker than the OTL. But sooner or later the Americans will have to make a move probably more sooner than later. The American press will be all over the Navy from not attacking the Japanese and for abandoning the troops fighting in the Philippine's. With a crippled navy you have an excuse, with an intact battle fleet sitting at Pearl doing nothing, that will not go down so well. I could just hear the Republicans having a fit and 42 is an election year. So the Democrats are not going to be happy unless the Americans score a victory or two before election time.

Also just imagine Wake Island the Navy doesn't send a relief force to Wake that would go down real well. The Navy would have to do something. That could mean a battle earlier than the American Navy really wants.
 
True, it would take awhile for the US Navy to come but while the Americans are getting organized the Japanese will over run all the territory they seized in OTL. The Kido Butai could be in the Southeast Asian Campaign from day one. That could make life even worse for the Allies than OTL. Possibly causing the collapse of Allied resistance to collapse even quicker than the OTL. But sooner or later the Americans will have to make a move probably more sooner than later. The American press will be all over the Navy from not attacking the Japanese and for abandoning the troops fighting in the Philippine's. With a crippled navy you have an excuse, with an intact battle fleet sitting at Pearl doing nothing, that will not go down so well. I could just hear the Republicans having a fit and 42 is an election year. So the Democrats are not going to be happy unless the Americans score a victory or two before election time.

Also just imagine Wake Island the Navy doesn't send a relief force to Wake that would go down real well. The Navy would have to do something. That could mean a battle earlier than the American Navy really wants.

I think the presumption here is that the Japanese do not declare war on the US from the outset, and only the British and Dutch colonies. They'll have a hard time getting any father than they did OTL, especially with the neutral-but-allied-in-all-but-name US territories smack dab in the middle of her shipping lanes.

I think that the US buildup plans were to have been completed by April of 1942, assuming complete absence of war (if I remember Calbear's comments in his Pacific Ordeal timeline). Basically, every day that the Japanese wait is another day for the US to fortify their Pacific possessions and build up the Navy. Assuming the Japanese do that, which is the whole point of avoiding Pearl Harbor, then they'll have to contend with the US ramping up supply of the Philippines and the other islands as much as they physically can. When war does break out, it'll be against a much more prepared and fortified enemy that has more aircraft and equipment, making the assault all the more painful (while also having to deal with occupying as much enemy territory as possible.)

And, having had the chance to observe the Kido Butai's actions against the British, the Navy could at least put their own plans together, especially knowing that the majority of the old battleships couldn't operate at flank speed along with the carriers. The US will be forced to use them simply because the battleships can't be overstretched (although, they may just end up all being transferred to the Atlantic when the time comes anyway).

So, the war will continue from square one (assuming that the British aren't lucky and manage to force a major casualty or two among the Kido Butai). The US will have flattop parity by the end of 1942, and are perfectly capable of trading flattop for flattop.

Oh, that, and the Japanese were, as in OTL, very far behind on merchant shipping production and anti-submarine warfare. Granted, the problem of the Mk 14 torpedoes will continue, but they still can have some success.

In the end, the war will have barely started in 1942, and it would be understood that a major war against a peer competitor would not be wrapped up immediately. The Battles will likely vary from ones such as Savo Island all the way to Midway. The Japanese would lose a few ships, if not in as devastating a manner as in Midway, but they would experience combat losses just as sure as the US would. And, as 1943 comes around, the naval discrepancy would only widen.
 
But that's not realistic in itself, the Japanese knew they were going to be fighting the Americans sooner or later. They chose to do it sooner, in the hope they could knock the Americans out on their terms.
They were aware of the American Naval building program,they had to win and win quickly or be ground to dust in a unwinnable war of attrition.
 
I think the presumption here is that the Japanese do not declare war on the US from the outset, and only the British and Dutch colonies. They'll have a hard time getting any father than they did OTL, especially with the neutral-but-allied-in-all-but-name US territories smack dab in the middle of her shipping lanes.

I think that the US buildup plans were to have been completed by April of 1942, assuming complete absence of war (if I remember Calbear's comments in his Pacific Ordeal timeline). Basically, every day that the Japanese wait is another day for the US to fortify their Pacific possessions and build up the Navy. Assuming the Japanese do that, which is the whole point of avoiding Pearl Harbor, then they'll have to contend with the US ramping up supply of the Philippines and the other islands as much as they physically can. When war does break out, it'll be against a much more prepared and fortified enemy that has more aircraft and equipment, making the assault all the more painful (while also having to deal with occupying as much enemy territory as possible.)

And, having had the chance to observe the Kido Butai's actions against the British, the Navy could at least put their own plans together, especially knowing that the majority of the old battleships couldn't operate at flank speed along with the carriers. The US will be forced to use them simply because the battleships can't be overstretched (although, they may just end up all being transferred to the Atlantic when the time comes anyway).

So, the war will continue from square one (assuming that the British aren't lucky and manage to force a major casualty or two among the Kido Butai). The US will have flattop parity by the end of 1942, and are perfectly capable of trading flattop for flattop.

Oh, that, and the Japanese were, as in OTL, very far behind on merchant shipping production and anti-submarine warfare. Granted, the problem of the Mk 14 torpedoes will continue, but they still can have some success.

In the end, the war will have barely started in 1942, and it would be understood that a major war against a peer competitor would not be wrapped up immediately. The Battles will likely vary from ones such as Savo Island all the way to Midway. The Japanese would lose a few ships, if not in as devastating a manner as in Midway, but they would experience combat losses just as sure as the US would. And, as 1943 comes around, the naval discrepancy would only widen.

I had some fun doing this as a timeline, I was admittedly highlighting the risks to Japan rather than giving them an easy run. I think the delay in the declaring war on the US is very dangerous, a strong Phillipines and heavily Wake Island would have had serious implications.
 
Regardless, if the US goes to war to save the colonies of Britain and the Dutch, ...

This presupposes the US is going to war to "save the colonies". There is some sort of logical fallacy there, or maybe a rhetorical thing. I can't recall the names. But, during the previous two or three decades US tension with Japan was only tangentially connected to European colonies. US interests, goals, objectives in Asia/Pacifica was in keeping markets open to US business & opening new markets. If you don't know the background to the 'Open Door Policy' you have some reading to do. From 1937 US policy with Japan was driven by Chinas markets being disrupted/closed by Japans occupation and growing control of China. The occupation of French Indochina was more of this. Access to the Tin, Rubber, & Rice was changed & not in the best interests of US business. For a century & a half US merchants had been competing with the European colonial powers for access to trade. Japans expansion of its control & trade policies to European colonies was not in the best interest of the US economy.

There was also the moralizing of the anti colonialists & other factions of the China or Asia Lobby who presented Japans expanding colonialism as the devil incarnate.
 
Top