Vichy and its status is a big deal in this TL. Vichy will most likely be still established due to the desire of French leadership to mitigate the German occupation (otherwise the German occupation could be of the most brutal sort and the Germans might be willing to offer Spain and Italy huge rewards to go in).
Conversely the Germans after Vichy is established would have more motivation to make a permanent peace with France (to give the Vichy government more validity and thus ability to defend its colonies). i.e Vichy has more leverage.
Conversely the Germans after Vichy is established would have more motivation to make a permanent peace with France (to give the Vichy government more validity and thus ability to defend its colonies). i.e Vichy has more leverage.