What if Italy stays out of WWII?

There are a lot of threads about this, which can be found through the search function. Anyway, Nazi Germany still loses in the end IMHO. Mussolini might jump in at the end of the war to get a seat at the negotiating table. In the wake of WW II, the Cold War still erupts and Fascist Italy becomes a recipient of US support just like other anti-communist dictatorial regimes such as Synghman Rhee's South Korea, KMT controlled Taiwan, Peronist Argentina etc. etc. Whether or not Fascism ends after Mussolini dies in the 1950s or early 60s is up in the air. More significant is that original Italian Fascism remains a respectable ideology into the 21st century, clearly distinct from National Socialism.
 
I think Italy may have stayed out of the war if Great Britain had recognized their sovereignty over Ethiopia after they had conquered it. I highly doubt that would have happened, but the Mussolini government as one of the signatories of the Versailles Treaty really wanted to be accepted as an equal partner with the British and the French. Remember, despite similar Fascist style governments with Hitler and Nazi Germany, Mussolini was not originally friendly with Hitler. It was Mussolini who readied troops to come to the aid of Austria when Hitler first threatened to take over the landlocked republic as one of the Allies responsible for keeping the Anschluss from happening according to the Treaty of Versailles.

Hitler and the Germans were the only nation giving any kind of support during and after the invasion of Ethiopia. I don't see the British doing it though, but it is one of the few things I can see giving the Italians a reason not to create the Axis alongside Hitler and Germany. Of course, I think it would be a matter of time before Italy might have problems within their own borders with the Fascist government of Mussolini. I would be interested to see if the cowardly King Victor Emanuel III would help lead an eventual fall of Mussoloni and replace it with a more Democratic and less totalitarian government. But the little king was more interested saving his own neck than his own peoples freedom. Maybe if his son Umberto II had a chance to be king sooner he could have done something about it, but I have read very little indication he felt much different. Perhaps others can give other insight or ideas.
 
True. The secret agreement confirmed that the British and French were willing to play ball with their Versailles Treaty ally. Once it leaked put they felt to save face they had to oppose and condemn the invasion. I find it hard to believe they were unable to discreetly let Mussolini know that they basically would do nothing to Italy in retaliation for their invasion of Ethiopia. Perhaps Mussolini sensing appeasement as weakness towards him made him grandstand into an alliance with Germany. Bottom line is, that once war begins, the Italian Military was not equipped to fight their former allies. If anything it was equipped to support their allies against the Germans with France and Britain. The British in post-World War I Europe most likely intended the Italians to be a first line against possible German aggression until they could fully mobilize.
 

thaddeus

Donor
have Goring as leader, my understanding Il Duce didn't like Hitler but he called Goring as escaped mental patient.
 
Without Italy in the war, does France fight on?

Probablly not. The catastrophe of complete German occupation led to the Deputies favoring capitulation at something like a 6-1 ratio. Even before the Italian entry it was clear the majority in the Deputies and the cabinet favored ending it.
 
Italy would still potentially interesting in expanding it's empire while WW2 happens. If Mussolini is smart, he'll just invade Yugoslavia and gain the Dalmatian Coast. Have him be incompetent and invade Greece, then his credibility will fall apart. The survival of fascism in Italy depends on Mussolini's military decisions, even if he declares neutrality in the war between the Allies and Germany.
 
Probablly not. The catastrophe of complete German occupation led to the Deputies favoring capitulation at something like a 6-1 ratio. Even before the Italian entry it was clear the majority in the Deputies and the cabinet favored ending it.
I think France giving the German a harder time and fighting on (say 1 or 2 months more) would persuade Mussolini to not enter the war.
 
Perhaps. The DoW was something of a impulse by Mussolini. Maybe if his mistress had given him better then night before he'd not thought of it.

There is a school that judges British diplomacy in this matter harshly. Perhaps more skilled persuasion could have prevented it.
 
As long as Italy stays neutral through 1939-43ish, I think it's a war winner for the Germans as they wouldn't have to involve themselves to the degree they did historically in the Balkans or Africa.
 
As long as Italy stays neutral through 1939-43ish, I think it's a war winner for the Germans as they wouldn't have to involve themselves to the degree they did historically in the Balkans or Africa.
But if Italy allies with Britain and the US lets say, what damage could the British and Americans do to Germany and there held. territories if they can also make use of Italian bases for Air and Naval attacks? Also, it gives the British the Allies a much better position to invade German held territories with land forces.
 
But if Italy allies with Britain and the US lets say, what damage could the British and Americans do to Germany and there held. territories if they can also make use of Italian bases for Air and Naval attacks? Also, it gives the British the Allies a much better position to invade German held territories with land forces.

I specifically said if Italy stays Neutral, and joining the Anglo-Americans would mean violating the OP as they wouldn't be staying out of the conflict.
 
Mussolini stays neutral, and pressures the Brits to give him a free hand in the Balkans and Greece in exchange, which is swiftly granted. Yugoslavia is carved up, whilst Greece is pressured into becoming a virtual Italian puppet state.

Italy then becomes a hole in the British blockade, allowing Germany an outlet to purchase materials (particularly oil).

Germany never gets involved in North Africa, the Mediterranean, or the Balkans/Greece (except for joining in the carving up of Yugoslavia). Although the Battle of the Atlantic and the Blitz continues.

The only ground action the Allies see is seizing Vichy colonies in Africa and the Middle East.

Germany is fully focused on the Soviet Union, except for an intermittent air and naval war with the Allies.

Wow, Hitler might actually win.

But with no Mediterranean/North African theater, the British can transfer a lot more resources to the defense of the Far East, which will stymie the Japanese faster.
 
I specifically said if Italy stays Neutral, and joining the Anglo-Americans would mean violating the OP as they wouldn't be staying out of the conflict.
I understand that, but what I should have made more clear based on Italy being neutral initially, is that Hitler did not honor neutral nations who did not side with him or prevented him from obtaining his goals. I guess hat I should have said was if Italy is invaded by Germany for remaining neutral, would not Italy have been forced to choose a side?

If this timeline is on the premise that Italy even if neutral at the outbreak of war, would never be put in a option to choose sides, and would stay neutral, then I respectively bow out.
 
The British have a lot of troops available with no African campaigns. They will figure out something to do with them.
Possiblities
1. Send troops to Algeria / Tunisia to try to quickly secure them before Vichy government is firmly established. This would only happen if the British had strong reason to believe the French wouldn't oppose them.
2. By hook or crook, find a way to get troops into the Balkans. Germany is then forced to set aside troops and time that could have gone to the Soviets. This will probably be Churchill's preferred option.
3. Build up and invade Norway.

Regardless there are will be enough troops in SE Asia to make Japanese conquest much more difficult. And Mers el Kebir probably doesn't happen, since there is less fear without the Italian Navy in the picture.
 
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