What if instead of instead of invading France in 1940, Benito Mussolini's Italy followed Spain's lead and remained neutral during World War II?
Would there even be any war in the med?
Afaik, the whole med campaign was caused by Italy's efforts.
It it remains out of the war, I doubt the overtaxed UK would "rock the boat", concerning Italy's african activities...
Then it doesn't attack Greece, does it? That means that Bulgaria and probably Yugoslavia don't get involved either. Germany doesn't send men and equipment to North Africa.
There's no soft underbelly for the Allies to invade in the Med (aside from maybe southern France). With no Italian Royal Navy, a larger invasion in southern France could be doable in the hopes that the Vichy regime would fold like the Italian one did IRL. Perhaps it can be combined with a landing in northern France as well. Less problems for British shipping in the Med. As for the Eastern front, the Axis gain the divisons that would have been tied to the Balkans and Africa, but lose the Italian ones.
...
The Axis military alliance was a defensive one, that is why Hitler's decision to declare war on the US was a choice not an obligation. Likewise Mussolini was not obligated to declare war on France. Had things gone less well for the Germans than OTL, even if France still falls Mussolini might see Germany as less a sure winner and stay out. His wars in Africa and Albanian efforts etc were tolerated by the British and others. If Benny does not attack the UK, and does not go in to Greece, he can stay neutral and survive. A neutral Italy, like a neutral Spain, can get imports from the USA, western hemisphere, or even the British Empire (as a sweetener to stay neutral).
Germany doesn't send men and equipment to North Africa. There's no soft underbelly for the Allies to invade in the Med (aside from maybe southern France).
Absent the drain of the Mediterranean theatre the question is where does Churchill focus in 1941 - 42? Adventures in Norway? A more decisive intervention in Iraq, Syria, ect... Earlier invasions of Madagascar & NW Africa, i.e.: The GYMNAST operation instead of the much later TORCH Op? Corsica is not Italian occupied, so will the Allies try to pick it off in 1942?
my question would be does Germany continue their collaboration with USSR in absence of Italy as ally? and effects of THAT on any pact with Japan?
an interesting situation could develop if Italy goes for Vichy France territory? French Somaliland and others.
That opens the question of the time od the PoD the OP intends.There is a Pod you can use for that
"The Little Annoying Austrian" first state visit as Fürher to Italy ended almost in diplomatic disaster !
So why not ending it as a diplomatic disaster and Mussolini still consider "The Little Annoying Austrian" as brute barbarian without education...
under this settings, Mussolini could take a Neutral position for Italy together with franco Spain, while the Nazi ravage over Europe...
IMO it sounds, as if the qustion should comes on Bennys table during the german invasion of the lowlands and France ... or even at the invasin of Poland and the allaround DoWs, when he geclared Italy to be "non-belliraganza".What if instead of instead of invading France in 1940, Benito Mussolini's Italy followed Spain's lead and remained neutral during World War II?
Does France (or at least the French government) throw in the towel and sign the Bordeaux Armistice if Italy remains neutral, or does France keep on fighting, from Algeria?