What if Italy recalls her merchant ships on time [ww2] ?

[ghappy1000]

On 10 June 1940, Italy lost about 212 [one source says 256] merchant ships trapped outside the Maediterranean or captured. What if they were recalled on time?
POD 1: On 11 May 1940, all outbound voyages for Italian merchant ships are cancelled and outbound Italian merchant ships that had not passed through the Suez or Gibraltar are called back home. To prevent the enemy from gaining information about war planning of Italy, outbound voyages are not cancelled if they're outside the Mediterranean.
POD 2 : Italy delays declaration of war by ten days [actually , France surrendered on 25 June 1940 and the French campaign was not really important for Mussolini, like his Greek campaign. ] to allow more time for return voyages. Return voyages are not affected.

 

[Jozon]

Mussolini was convinced the war would be over in a matter of weeks. The British and French would come to the table, some land would change hands, and that would be it.
If he recalls the merchant vessels, he's obviously considering the possibility of a long(er) war. In which case he wouldn't join in, because he wants no part of that.

As for delaying his declaration of war, not a chance. He "knows" that if the French sue for peace before he's gotten involved, he won't get to sit next to Hitler at the peace conference.

 

[ghappy1000]

Mussolini was convinced the war would be over in a matter of weeks. The British and French would come to the table, some land would change hands, and that would be it.
If he recalls the merchant vessels, he's obviously considering the possibility of a long(er) war. In which case he wouldn't join in, because he wants no part of that.

As for delaying his declaration of war, not a chance. He "knows" that if the French sue for peace before he's gotten involved, he won't get to sit next to Hitler at the peace conference.

Even then, if he can't delay his declaration of war, the ships should be able to be in the Mediterranean on 10 June. If not, they can sail for Japan [for India, Far East , Pacific coast of America and Australia ] bound ships and conduct blockade running [to Germany for vessels in Spanish or Atlantic Latin American ports and to Japan for vessels in Italian East Africa .]

 

[Jozon]

I don't think you understand the point I was trying to make.

If Mussolini thought it would have been necessary to make sure his merchant vessels would be available to him in the case of a long war, he wouldn't join the war at all, since he wasn't interested in going to war.
He was only interested in being on the winning side of a war that was already won before he joined in.

 

[ghappy1000]

How about recalling them or cancelling their voyages [if still in the Med. or in Italian ports on 31 May 1940]? Of course it would be too late to be meaningful and to save more than 10 ships [less than about 5 %]from being cut off, but that could prevent the British from seizing that many merchant ships. For homebound vessels and outbound vessels trading with Europe/ the Americas, they can seek refuge in Spanish or American continent ports and conduct blockade running, if trading with the Far East, India, East Africa or Australia, they can go to Japan or Italian East Africa and try to break out with a small naval escort when Mogadishu and Massawa fall.

 

[Cymraeg]

I fear that you’re crediting Mussolini with too much prescience. He was convinced that the war would very soon be over and that if he didn’t jump in straight away he would be able to get the choicest slices from the peace conference that he was already planning to attend in his most resplendent clobber. IIRC his actual quote was: "I only need a few thousand dead so that I can sit at the peace conference as a man who has fought". Which was SOP for that bloviated windbag.

 

[Fairdowner]

A few more merchant ships, especially tankers could have made a difference suplying tthe Axis forces in North Africa I guess.