What if Italy never invaded Ethiopia?

RNG

Banned
What if Italy never invaded Ethiopia? If they never invaded what would Hitler do differently and how would this affect World War Two? What you think?
 
Well internally Benny will have less influence and power, the success of the war and the imposition of the sanctions really bring the country around him and allowed him to increase the fascistization of the society. On the other hand it will mean more money for Italy, no war expense, no pacification expense, no money wasted in big project in Ethiopia.
No sanctions and Stresa it's still a thing and the italian economy will not tie herselfs to the Germans, making a formal alliance unavoidable in the end; how this will influence any possible annexation of Austria depend on how the Anglo-French react, as i'm not entirely sure that Benny will go alone to defend Wien.
 
The breach between Italy and France+Britain is put off for years, likewise the alignment of Italy with Germany.

That means Italy will continue to oppose the unification of Austria with Germany. While Italy by itself can't stop Germany, France+Britain can effectively resist it with Italy.

Probably the Anschluss is delayed for a year until Hitler finds a way to buy Mussolini's support. It won't be technical aid, as with the USSR in 1939; the Italians won't accept that they need any German advice.

It might be German support for Italy's Balkan ambitions - a partition of Yugoslavia, or Italian takeover of Albania.

But IMO, in the long term, Italy and Germany will come together. However, the delay will have important knock-ons.

Supposing the crisis is delayed until the fall of 1940; then Britain may have another election first. It would take a historic swing to bring Labour to power, but it might be possible. Also, Chamberlain would become seriously ill first, so the Conservatives would have to pick a new leader, who (absent the war) would not be Churchill. (Nor HalifaX - a peer as PM was not acceptable anymore.)

There would be a knock-on in the US as well - the 1940 election would begin before the war started, perhaps removing the drive to nominate Willkie instead of one of his isolationist Republican rivals. Also, FDR might retire instead of running for a third term; OTL, he seems to have felt that he was particularly needed in the war crisis.

In the Pacific, it allows time for the Flying Tigers to get into action before the US is pulled into the war, maybe.
 

Driftless

Donor
IF the Italians don't attack Abyssinia, how might that alter the Spanish Civil War? Would Italy still jump in, or remain as an interested by-stander?
 
IF the Italians don't attack Abyssinia, how might that alter the Spanish Civil War? Would Italy still jump in, or remain as an interested by-stander?
I can't see any way no-Abyssinia affects the trend to civil war in Spain; or Mussolini's interest in helping the Nationalists.

However, there could be butterflies. For instance, General Sanjurjo might not meet death from excess baggage.
 
I can't see any way no-Abyssinia affects the trend to civil war in Spain; or Mussolini's interest in helping the Nationalists.

However, there could be butterflies. For instance, General Sanjurjo might not meet death from excess baggage.

No, but with the Stresa front still a thing, Benny can be less open and generous in his support of the Nationalist
 
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