What if Italian Libya from 1878

raharris1973

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getting Libya as initially proposed? Yes, very probable with an ambassadors just a little more assertive and in the 'better this than nothing' optic;

With more assertive diplomacy Italy might have been able to claim Libya years early, at the Congress of Berlin.

This would cut off Tunisia from the rest of the OE. France did not have Tunisia yet. Who would likely get Tunisia?

Would the Italians rule Libya from 1878 as a colony, or would they simply have occupation and administrative rights over the area, which would formally remain Ottoman (this was the arrangement that existed with Austria and Bosnia at the time)?

Could native resistance simply thwart any Italian attempt to actually occupy its new possession/protectorate? Adua in the desert?

If Italy secured the area from 1878 on, would it still even be interested in subduing Abyssinia? Would it have any reason to try to mug the Turks of territory again later?
 
If Italy somehow gained Libya in 1878, I would imagine they'd be pushing hard for Tunisia. Albania too. They'd probably try and direct emigration that way too, to solidify control. Even OTL Italians made up a significant proportion of the population of pre-independance Libya (iirc something near to 50%). With an extra 30 years I could see Italian Catholics outnumbering Libyan Arab Muslims by the 1950s. Not sure about Tunisia, but Rome would certainly try to achieve similar demographics there.
 
With more assertive diplomacy Italy might have been able to claim Libya years early, at the Congress of Berlin.

This would cut off Tunisia from the rest of the OE. France did not have Tunisia yet. Who would likely get Tunisia?

The proposed agreement at Berlin was that in case France occupied Tunisia, Italy will have gain the right to occupy Libya; so France get Tunisia is a precondition and was the reason the ambassador was not really forthcoming in accepting the deal.

Would the Italians rule Libya from 1878 as a colony, or would they simply have occupation and administrative rights over the area, which would formally remain Ottoman (this was the arrangement that existed with Austria and Bosnia at the time)?

It will be probably the final agreement, the rest of the european concert was not really fond of officially dismember the Porte and usually opted for at least the diplomatic fiction to administer the place for the Ottoman; so yeah a Bosnia (or Tunisia) like agreement will be the result.

Could native resistance simply thwart any Italian attempt to actually occupy its new possession/protectorate? Adua in the desert?

If Italy secured the area from 1878 on, would it still even be interested in subduing Abyssinia? Would it have any reason to try to mug the Turks of territory again later?

Obstacolate and slowing the process? Surely but twarth? No, Italy will do take control of the place, they can get some agreement about local autonomy but it will be all and better remeber that Adua caused the end of the first Italo-Abyssinian war just because the new goverment in Rome was not really behind the war and decided to cut losses but if really pressed they have the possibility to continue the war and beat Menelik.
 
If Italy somehow gained Libya in 1878, I would imagine they'd be pushing hard for Tunisia. Albania too. They'd probably try and direct emigration that way too, to solidify control. Even OTL Italians made up a significant proportion of the population of pre-independance Libya (iirc something near to 50%). With an extra 30 years I could see Italian Catholics outnumbering Libyan Arab Muslims by the 1950s. Not sure about Tunisia, but Rome would certainly try to achieve similar demographics there.
It was something like 20%, unless you're also including soldiers.
 
With more assertive diplomacy Italy might have been able to claim Libya years early, at the Congress of Berlin.

This would cut off Tunisia from the rest of the OE. France did not have Tunisia yet. Who would likely get Tunisia?

Would the Italians rule Libya from 1878 as a colony, or would they simply have occupation and administrative rights over the area, which would formally remain Ottoman (this was the arrangement that existed with Austria and Bosnia at the time)?

Could native resistance simply thwart any Italian attempt to actually occupy its new possession/protectorate? Adua in the desert?

If Italy secured the area from 1878 on, would it still even be interested in subduing Abyssinia? Would it have any reason to try to mug the Turks of territory again later?

It would be interested to gain more. So Ethiopia is not safe... yet...
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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The proposed agreement at Berlin was that in case France occupied Tunisia, Italy will have gain the right to occupy Libya; so France get Tunisia is a precondition and was the reason the ambassador was not really forthcoming in accepting the deal.

If the Italian Ambassador is accepting of the deal, does that mean France and Italy each grab Tunisia and Libya in 1878? Or do they take their time till 1881? I wonder if the initia change means the Italians and/or French are more likely to join in when the British intervene in Egypt in 1882.
 
If the Italian Ambassador is accepting of the deal, does that mean France and Italy each grab Tunisia and Libya in 1878? Or do they take their time till 1881? I wonder if the initia change means the Italians and/or French are more likely to join in when the British intervene in Egypt in 1882.

No, they both wait for the right diplomatic moment and for Italy the intervention in Egypt can be one (expecially if the Tunisia takeover happen as OTL)
 
I recall that the Italian position in Eritrea and Somalia began as a few meager concessions, and that the Italian government was induced to expand those concessions into colonial ventures by the British. I do not think that was wise of Italy to do. Rather, if Italy had kept its one concession port in Eritrea, and perhaps one in Somalia, they would have satisfied the logistical needs for their merchant traffic through the Red Sea. Italy could have pursued more of a fraternal relationship with Ethiopia, as a leading investor in the development of the country. In general, I think the quest for empire is foolish and self defeating, and in this instance staying uninvolved would have been much more profitable.

I think Italy can take Libya, and Tunisia quickly. I think it can harness the population who emigrated to America as settlers to develop these African countries into Italian colonies. Because of the difficulty of this task, it would require that Italy avoid costly wars. Britain will want to undue this checkpoint against their Transmediterranean shipping. So Italy would want to maintain good terms with Germany as a means of securing resources if Britain became antagonistic. France will be covetous of Tunisia, so the alliance with Germany would be doubly important, and thus Germany's well being will be an imperative.

The Ottoman's still have control of Albania, which poses a threat to Italy, because they may want revenge for taking away Libya and Tunisia. The popular sentiment in Italy wants to take Albania, but that is a fruitless endeavor for Italy and it would also antagonize Austria-Hungary. Such a move would be inopportune when Italy still wants for Trento and Trieste, and Austria-Hungary has not yet sufficiently weakened from it's ethnic divisions. Bulgaria came close to eliminating Turkey's position but such a large Bulgaria rankled Austria-Hungary.

Italy could conspire:
to create an Albanian nation-state;
to expand the Greek nation-state from Constantinople through Macedonia to Epirus, over the Dodecanese and Crete and Cyprus, as well as across Ionia;
to end the Turkish Empire by removing them from Europe so as to constrain the Turkish state to an Anatolian rump kingdom;
to emburden Russia with a small oblast on a strip of the Anatolian coast from the Bosporus to the Dardanelles, as well as Armenian and Assyrian Mandates; and
to emburden Britain with a northwest Syrian Mandate (Amurru?) and a Mandate over Palestine with Sinai.
 
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