What if Israel seized more Jordanian territory in 1967?

raharris1973

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Outside of the West Bank which Israel seized in OTL, probably the most valuable piece of Jordanian real estate close to the border was the port of Aqaba on the Red Sea. Forces from Sinai or Negev likely would have been able to seize the city, and thereby render Jordan landlocked.


That distress on Jordan adds for pressure for a settlement, or possibly fatally destabilizes the Hashemite regime. At a minimum, it makes Jordan dependent on Arab neighbors, like Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, for trade.


I don’t know the population of Aqaba in 1967, and how it compared with other West Bank and East Bank towns. I don’t think it was a metropolis that would become a big urban quagmire.


Probably, Jordan would find relying on Saudi Arabia for trade the least objectionable. After the overthrow of the Iraqi monarchy and the rise of Nasserism, I think the Hashemite-Saudi feud wound down.


I don’t know if there was a major Red Sea port in the Saudi coast along the straits of Tiran, but loss of Aqaba might encourage development of such a port in the 1970s.


The Israelis occupying Aqaba, and thus having a short common border with the Saudis, could increase the pressure even further on Saudi Arabia to get more heavily involved in the next round.


-Other areas of expansion at Jordanian expense include several kilometers east of the Jordan River, which in itself is not a significant tactical obstacle. This also can add pressure for a settlement.


Loss of additional territory would make Jordanian participation in an ATL version of the Yom Kippur war far more likely.
 
But why? Israel at this point, unless you really change something, wouldn't even really wanna expand, rather just kinda keep shit under control iirc.
 

raharris1973

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But why? Israel at this point, unless you really change something, wouldn't even really wanna expand, rather just kinda keep shit under control iirc.

Well, it could come down to the local Israeli commander in Eilat taking the initiative for one reason or another once the war with Jordan turned on (wanting to make a name for himself, hearing rumors that Egyptian or Saudi troops were bound for Aqaba port, whatever) during the 6 Day War. Israel didn't have a plan in the six-day war, at least not one they admitted to themselves, beyond hitting the Egyptians first many of the conquests were accidental, incidental or at local initiative, I'm just proposing they go in a few miles at the southern border and seize Jordan's Red Sea town/port. If the commanders at whatever level want a strategic rationalization it could be that we'll have the Jordanians in a headlock if we occupy their port, so they'll have no choice but to sign a peace treaty.
 
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