What If ISIS Captured Baghdad?

Africa is closer to the Middle East and has a sizeable Muslim population. On top of that, internal security in Africa is hampered by poverty, unfavorable terrain, and corruption in the military and government officials. Those are breeding grounds to recruit ordinary disgruntled people to join ISIS.

The waters around maritime Southeast Asia are controlled by the U.S. and its allies, which have competent militaries and counterterrorist forces so it would be harder for ISIS to establish the caliphate there. Even if nearby Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world.
This thread reminds me of an exchange I had on omegle's chat room. I got paired with a person from northern Iraq who had to flee from ISIS. Wild stuff.
 
The US-trained Iraqi "Army" folds as it did in other cities and either the Russo-Iranian partnership steps in or NATO goes on a massive carpet bombing campaign that's going to make 2003 look like a joke. Or both.

ISIS might bite the hand that fed them.

They could extend to Jordan.
 
Oh yea your right, nvm.

AQ did have plans to do this, but it had a significantly different way of doing this than ISIS.

"Zawahiri also addressed the topic of the overall objectives of the Iraqi jihad and how they should be achieved. First, Zawahiri reaffirmed the centrality of the campaign in Iraq for al-Qaeda’s global strategy and instructed Zarqawi that his ultimate objective should be reestablishing the caliphate in the country. He wrote, “The victory of Islam will never take place until a Muslim state is established in the manner of the Prophet in the heart of the Islamic world, specifically in the Levant, Egypt, and the neighboring states of the Peninsula and Iraq.” Yet as a first step, Zawahiri counseled, Zarqawi’s primary nearterm objective should be expelling coalition forces from Iraq. Declaring the return of the caliphate too early was unwise, Zawahiri judged, because it might bring stronger external opposition against al-Qaeda in Iraq. Instead, Zawahiri argued that an emirate should be established in Iraq, but only after American forces had withdrawn. The al-Qaeda emirate should be allowed to grow and strengthen before the declaration of an Islamic state and the return of the caliphate."
- US Army In The Iraq War Volume 1

The aim of AQ is to "re-establish" the Islamic Caliphate of the middle ages, which stretched from Andalusia, Across North Africa, the Middle East, the Balkans and on to India - i.e. the high point of the Islamic conquests.

Thing is, this Caliphate that AQ dream of restoring never existed as a single unified political entity, it was always two or three states (or more). The Halcyon days of the Islamic world being the richest and most sophisticated ended when the Europeans bypassed the silk road with ocean going ships and took control of East West trade, not because the Islamic world stopped being religiously proper. But AQ never let facts get in the way of dogma.

However, AQ know they can not re-establish the caliphate because of the tyrannical leaders of the modern states who refuse to see their way. So the step before goal 1 is to overthrown the governments of the the nations which now make up the "caliphate".

However, AQ also know that the west would not allow this, so the step before goal 2 is to drive the west of Islamic lands. Which was what AQ's campaign to date has been about.

ISIL began life as an AQ affiliate group - AQ in the Iraq and the Levant. They became a kind of really weird mix of AQ hardliners and ex-Saddam era Baathists* who had been chucked out of their cushy place at the top of the pile by the US occupiers. ISIL broke from AQ after falling out over points of doctrine** (the declaration of the Caliphate too early, as you mentioned). When ISIL seemingly achieved success where AQ had failed (i.e. by establishing their state), then AQ really began to hate them.


*Nominally secular joining up with hard line religious fanatic
** Just don't mention that both AQ and ISIL are actually pretty weak, theologically speaking. Zawahiri has long been judged to have poor Islamic scholarship by other scholars.
 
ISIS today is more capable than AQI was after the US nearly destroyed it post Surge during the Iraq war. Its a very resilient organization. There are around 10k ISIS fighters left in Iraq and Syria.
True, but they’ve alerted other countries to their activities. Their rapid advances in 2014 were due to slip ups and oversight from the world at large that won’t be repeated
 
Could ISIS had won? By won I mean, took over Syria and North Iraq? I know that there would be a massive international pressure, but they defeat them in the end.
 
Top