What if Ireland switched to FPTP in 1959?

I'm just going to quote irishpoliticalmaps wholesale:

In the final days of the de Valera administration in 1959, a referendum was held on the matter of Ireland's electoral system. Since 1921, Ireland had used Proportional Representation by Single Transferable Vote (PRSTV), which allowed each constituency to return several members and gave smaller parties a better chance of winning representation. The government proposed abolishing this system and replacing it with the First Past the Post (FPTP) system used in the United Kingdom (and, of course, in Ireland until 1921), each constituency would have only one seat, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins.

In the UK, FPTP had led to what was essentially a two party system - the Conservatives and the Liberals dominated throughout the 19th century, until the Labour Party displaced the latter in the 20th century. In Ireland, it ensured the dominance of the Irish Independence Party between 1885 and 1918. In the Ireland of 1959, where Fianna Fáil were already winning large majorities with PRSTV, a switch to FPTP could have resulted in a nearly indestructable Fianna Fáil majority in every election, pending the party's continued popularity.

The proposal was opposed by the other parties, and the result itself was very close. 51.8% voted against the proposal, and the near 50-50 divide was seen in many constituencies across the state. Only in the west did the Yes side win victories of over 55%, while the No side won victories of over 60% in Dublin. The electorate had rejected FPTP, preventing what would have been a fundamental change in the Irish political landscape.

The results:
Yes - 48.2% [453,322]
No - 51.8% [486,989]

Turnout: 56.4%

1959+Referendum.png

What would have happened if Ireland had changed her electoral system, if, say, a couple percentage more of the population turned out to vote? Would it mean an even more Fianna Fáil-dominanated Ireland? The crippling of Labour, the various Independents, and the scattering other minor parties? What else would be a repercussion of this big political shift?
 
Probably more FF domination leading to even worse corruption within that party, which would lead to a FF defeat in due course. PR-STV tends to smooth things out so when FF's vote collapses, and it will at some point, you'll get something like this.
 
I've done a series of electoral maps for every Irish election since 1989 - and the general image is applicable for most of the FF era. Even though you'd get smaller constituencies, FG and others will struggle to get more than a dozen TDs until the Irish got so pissed off with FF that they went over en masse to an opposition party as in OTL 2011. Here, you'd see that 50-60 years earlier.
 
I've done a series of electoral maps for every Irish election since 1989 - and the general image is applicable for most of the FF era. Even though you'd get smaller constituencies, FG and others will struggle to get more than a dozen TDs until the Irish got so pissed off with FF that they went over en masse to an opposition party as in OTL 2011. Here, you'd see that 50-60 years earlier.

Uh, 50-60 years earlier than 2011 is 1951 to 1961. Most of that period is before the actual POD! ;)
 
There are two possibilities here.

One, which has been discussed, is FF dominance, winning all but a handful of the outstanding seats in election after election. There have been countries that have had elections but had what amounted to one party rule elsewhere. Then at some point, by 2011 at the latest, it all suddenly collapses.

The second possibility is that FG and Labour either formally or informally converge into a single "not FF" opposition party, and Ireland develops a fairly pure two party system, with no strong third parties, like most countries had in the nineteenth century when representative democracy was still developing and which the US still has today.

I think the first possibility is likelier.

While its not polite to say this, keep in mind that the Irish Republic in the 1960s was somewhat backwards by European or international standards. It was a low population, mostly rural, and peripheral place. This has gradually changed, but other countries that fit this description tend to have electoral systems either dominated by one party or which two parties monopolize.
 
Even thought the scale of voters is very different between this referendum and the one Britain just had, I find it interesting how close the percentages are to each other. Only .1% separating No from Leave, and Yes from Remain.

Ireland (1959):

No: 51.79%
Yes: 48.21%

Britain (2016):

Leave: 51.89%
Remain: 48.11%

I know this doesn't really mean anything, but it's interesting to note.
 
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