What if Ireland rejected the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty

Considering that the IRA would have likely been beaten had the war of independence continued,what would Ireland be like now?
Would they have fought another war and gained independence? Would they slowly be integrated and be loyal to Britain? Would Ireland be united? Would they gain independence in a Scottish style referendum? Would the civil war have happened? And would the Troubles in Northern Ireland have happened?
 
Considering that the IRA would have likely been beaten had the war of independence continued,what would Ireland be like now?
Would they have fought another war and gained independence? Would they slowly be integrated and be loyal to Britain? Would Ireland be united? Would they gain independence in a Scottish style referendum? Would the civil war have happened? And would the Troubles in Northern Ireland have happened?

Lot of different questions there, I mean the war started back up what losses would be inflicted (both in numbers and in the leaders) which would impact what might happen in terms of starting another campaign, what impact a prolonged military deployment would have on the UK... Further on the potential butterflies would make things harder to guess (would a NI be 6 or 9 counties for example) how much damage would be done economically, whose left leading, and the Troubles would be so far after that it's hard to see.

There was a TL regarding a renewed Anglo-Irish war a couple of years ago before the writer got banned.
 
First, a guerilla army is seldom beaten, though the continuation of the fight might become unworthy. The situation of the arms and training was much improved by the end of the Truce than before it; the morale, however, was lower, and there was a lot of war-weariness in the population, whose support was much needed.

Plus, Michael Collins, the driving force behind the IRA organization, would be "burnt", as his anonimacy was blown away with the Truce and Treaty. He could fulfill his threat of "returning to the ranks" in Cork, or be shipped to the United States as President De Valera wanted earlier that year. Anyway, his organizational and financial skills would be out of touch (those skills, more than his military skills, were what made him, on the words of Tom Barry, "Commander-in-Chief in fact, if not in name"). It could be a setback.

On the other hand, the British government was pretty much broken, with a severe recession in hands, and a renewal of the war would cost A LOT more of money and resources directed to a hopeless situation. They might be tempted to open other avenues of negotiation rather than restarting the war.
 
IIRC one of the reasons why the Irish went to the table during the Anglo-Irish Treaty talks was the knowledge of the likes of Collins that the IRA was close to running out of supplies and could generally be quite easily strangled by the British in a de jure sense. If there is a resumption of guerrilla warfare, that is only going to increase the resolve of the UUP and Craig to resist being included in a United Ireland. It was only with the Fourth Home Rule Act that the Unionists became supportive of the idea of a Home Rule government, with provisions for the six counties to remain in the UK. The Ulster Unionists were apprehensive and reluctant at first at the idea of a devolved parliament, but were won around to it (as Craig's brother Charles' interventions in parliament show). You also have the issue of what it will do to Sinn Fein, as there was already some divisions over the Treaty, which as we known OTL caused massive splits - moderates such as Griffith are still going to push for some sort of Treaty. What is interesting is that for the Treaty to be easily rejected in the cabinet, it only needs to have Cosgrave come down in opposition as Dev expected he would (OTL he sided with the majority and along with Collins and Griffith) and it is more or less killed off.
Seeing as the Troubles were mentioned, its important to note that while the Civil Rights movement was a long time coming and if a similar NI and Unionist dominated system occurs, its still going to happen eventually - the violence was not always assured. The IRA's border campaigns of the 1950s were a failure and even as late as the early 1970s you still had people like Brian Faulkner who joked that IRA stood for 'I Ran Away' (which unfortunately was not the case). So the Troubles was very much created by the conditions of the late 1960s and the shifts in Unionism and Nationalism at the time (away from the traditional hegemony of the UUP and Nationalist Party towards a larger party system).
 
Top