What if Iraq had maintained a puppeted Kuwait?

Ismail

Banned
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Kuwait

On August 4, two days after invading and occupying Kuwait, the "Provisional Government of Free Kuwait" was proclaimed. Despite efforts it lacked internal popularity and international recognition. On August 7 it proclaimed Kuwait a Republic only to be annexed by Saddam a day later. Apparently some people were actually shocked a fair bit by the decision to annex Kuwait, as they had generally expected by that point that Saddam was merely attempting to promote a pro-Iraqi regime which would settle border disputes in its favor rather than annex the whole country outright.

Would there have been any significant difference had Saddam presented his actions as strictly defending a Kuwaiti Republic struggling against monarchism?
 

Cook

Banned
I think we were pretty much shocked by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, I don’t even recall hearing about him setting up a puppet provisional government. Such a government would never have gained international recognition.
 
Kuwait...

Had there been a period of civil unrest followed by some support of Government collapse (much as we are seeing in Tunisia now) and had any incoming Government then sought closer relations with Iraq, I doubt anyone would have done anything.

The Saudis and the Americans would have been concerned but probably relieved it wasn't a pro-Iranian Government.
 

Ismail

Banned
I think we were pretty much shocked by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, I don’t even recall hearing about him setting up a puppet provisional government.
Probably because it lasted for only 4 days before Saddam switched from "we're fraternally backing Kuwaiti revolutionaries seeking to overthrow the oppressive monarchy" to "Kuwait has always been a part of Iraq, separated from it only by the dealings of the British colonialists."

On a semi-related note, although in retrospect many people have noted Iraqi claims to Kuwait (the Iraqi monarchy tried to influence its internal affairs while Abd al-Karim Qasim was adamant about it joining Iraq), Saddam had never indicated a wish to annex Kuwait nor disputed it having a justly independent and separate existence up until 8 August 1990, only disagreeing in the late 1980's on border issues. In fact Kuwait was actually close to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. That's what really surprised people. This is noted in The Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait: Religion, Identity and Otherness in the Analysis of War and Conflict, pp. 75-77.

This was a pretty big contributing factor to the surprise and confusion over the invasion. There were the border and oil disputes, but Saddam was invading the whole country rather than the disputed regions (since it is said he felt that doing the latter would have lacked the "fait accompli" value of taking the whole country), and invading with the initial claim that Iraq was helping fellow Arab revolutionaries topple a reactionary monarchy clearly backfired.
 
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Didn't the Americans tell the Saudi government a few fibs about the Iraqi's deployments near the border? IIRC they doctored some of the satellite images to make it look as though they were massing near the border in a possibly offensive manner when actually there were far fewer and they were digging in further back from the border in defensive positions? The Saudi government got nervous and the US got their base of operations for the counter-invasion.

I can't find it now but I was reading a write-up from some regional analyst guy a few years but who seemed to be arguing fairly convincingly that if he'd played his cards right rather than being a street thug that bungled every PR opportunity Saddam could have dragged things out long enough to get away with it.
 

Ismail

Banned
Apparently on August 5 the Iraqis would have withdrawn from Kuwait and let the puppet "Popular Army" (a de facto militia at that point) deal with any resistance from anti-Iraq Kuwaitis, but the "provisional government" was so unpopular and international opinion so hostile that Saddam figured that it'd be toppled if he withdrew, so instead more troops were sent in.

Basically Saddam was seriously banking upon getting opposition elements in Kuwait and in exile to endorse and participate in the new government. When this failed said government was simply a bunch of Iraqi-trained army men trying their best to wing it, and this pretty much ensured that Saddam had little choice besides withdrawing (thus allowing the monarchy to return) and basically conclude an invasion of a country for absolutely no reason or gain, or reviving Iraq's claims to Kuwait and annexing it.

So basically for this alternate history scenario to work two things would need to happen:
1. Kuwaiti opposition figures would need to agree to partake in the affairs of a new Iraqi-backed government;
2. Iraq would need to respect Kuwait's populace and allow a fairly "liberal" government in accordance with the wishes of the opposition.

Iraq had apparently called for "free elections" for Kuwait in an attempt to woo opponents of the monarchy (Saddam was already toying with sight political liberalization measures in Iraq between 1988 and 1990), but it's obviously not likely that they would have seriously allowed this, opposition participation or not.
 
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