What if Iraq big subs force during first Gulf war

MacCaulay

Banned
The problem is acquiring the target in the first place. The best weapon against a submarine is another submarine and the allies in the gulf used nuclear subs which are too large for the shallow gulf.

If Iraq had managed to get a dozen reasonably modern subs (Kilo or German U-210) then allied forces would have been hard pressed to find them.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Coalition, if they were actually facing an Iraq with submarines, would go in there with the tools they needed to engage them. They would factor that into their force structure, just like they factored in the Iraqi armour, the Scuds, etc.

And if we're talking about the war taking the same tack, what with Desert Shield leading into Desert Storm, then the US, British, French, and god knows which other navies would have time to find the subs and keep track of them. If anything, they'd at least be able to know the general area.



EDIT: Something else to think about with that runup, is that we'd probably be playing games with them. Making runs and learning their moves. Diesels aren't impossible to track. And the fact that it's in a confined area like the Gulf means that we can be reasonably sure that we'll find them fairly quick with a good search plan.
 
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Andre27

Banned
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Coalition, if they were actually facing an Iraq with submarines, would go in there with the tools they needed to engage them. They would factor that into their force structure, just like they factored in the Iraqi armour, the Scuds, etc.

And if we're talking about the war taking the same tack, what with Desert Shield leading into Desert Storm, then the US, British, French, and god knows which other navies would have time to find the subs and keep track of them. If anything, they'd at least be able to know the general area.



EDIT: Something else to think about with that runup, is that we'd probably be playing games with them. Making runs and learning their moves. Diesels aren't impossible to track. And the fact that it's in a confined area like the Gulf means that we can be reasonably sure that we'll find them fairly quick with a good search plan.

Sure allied forces would test the waters so to speak, but something to consider is that during desert shield the allied forces were nowhere near strong enough to stop a serious push into Saudi Arabia.

It was their air power and the carrier battlegroup in the gulf which inspired enough caution in Saddam to delay any further advances.

Now imagine a scenario where a number of submarines pose enough of a treat to keep the CBG out of the gulf, if not permanent then at least temporary.

A number of Iraqi subs could have had significant influence during allied buildup.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Sure allied forces would test the waters so to speak, but something to consider is that during desert shield the allied forces were nowhere near strong enough to stop a serious push into Saudi Arabia.

It was their air power and the carrier battlegroup in the gulf which inspired enough caution in Saddam to delay any further advances.

Now imagine a scenario where a number of submarines pose enough of a treat to keep the CBG out of the gulf, if not permanent then at least temporary.

A number of Iraqi subs could have had significant influence during allied buildup.

I honestly think that the US Navy would've probably been ordered to move into the Gulf no matter what. Then if the Iraqis wanted to attack them, they would. But that's one thing to think about: we were talking about trying to gauge how badly the Coalition WASN'T willing to unseat Saddam...how willing was Saddam to keep the whole thing in Kuwait?

I honestly don't know if I have any books that would be able to give me that information...I'll look though!
 
100 Submarines? Yeah right!

Who is training up the crew for 100 submarines for a start? 50 - 60 crew for each submarine plus support staff. And how long does it take to get "good" at it as opposed to being able to submerge and come back up again? Minimum of five years to build the necessary culture/doctrine/training program and even then without someone to practice against you're going to be awful/rubbish at it.

And all these sailors and resources would have had to have been training during the Iran-Iraq war. With no-where to practise that was safe. Even delivery of the submarines would have been a major issue.
 

sharlin

Banned
Also what kind of subs, the USSR would not be willing to export Kilo class subs to Iran so you'd be looking at China to supply boats and they could probably give you a sweet deal on the Romeo class subs which even by 1990's standards are laughably obsolete, being a modified WW2 sub sans deckgun basically.
 

Jason222

Banned
100 Submarines? Yeah right!

Who is training up the crew for 100 submarines for a start? 50 - 60 crew for each submarine plus support staff. And how long does it take to get "good" at it as opposed to being able to submerge and come back up again? Minimum of five years to build the necessary culture/doctrine/training program and even then without someone to practice against you're going to be awful/rubbish at it.

And all these sailors and resources would have had to have been training during the Iran-Iraq war. With no-where to practise that was safe. Even delivery of the submarines would have been a major issue.
It like change the tide Iraq and Iran war first place tanker war differnt outcome but end war.
 
Huh? Change the tide of the war? Perhaps - but only as all that effort spent on useless submarines would be taken away from the real (land) war with Iran. Result: Southern Iraq overrun and the naval bases taken away (permanently in all likelyhood).
 
Also what kind of subs, the USSR would not be willing to export Kilo class subs to Iran so you'd be looking at China to supply boats and they could probably give you a sweet deal on the Romeo class subs which even by 1990's standards are laughably obsolete, being a modified WW2 sub sans deckgun basically.

Soviets were still making Foxtrots for export into the '80s so I could see the Soviets selling Iraq some of those. They'll still be obsolescent by 1990-91 but not the extreme obsolete death traps Chinese Romeos/Mings would be.
 

Jason222

Banned
Huh? Change the tide of the war? Perhaps - but only as all that effort spent on useless submarines would be taken away from the real (land) war with Iran. Result: Southern Iraq overrun and the naval bases taken away (permanently in all likelyhood).
During the Iran and Iraq war Iraq basic brow all it wanted. None nations pratice though Iraq would able pay back debt that lending it money. So Iraq greater debt.
 
I'm not talking about money.

I am talking about the effort needed to create a naval base to house "100 submarines". In Um Quasar which is tiny and not at all suitable to act as such a base. And where the only exit is so shallow you'd have to stay surfaced for many miles. And the effort to train 5000 - 10000 sailors plus supporting naval staff (easily three to four times that). All effort that should have gone into defending Basrah from the Iranians.

The USSR only built around 50 Foxtrots for their own use (plus about 20 for other nations), so you're not going to be getting your 100 submarines from there even if they were prepared to sell the lot.
 
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