What If: Independent Lombardy in 1848

From Britain in Europe: 1789 to 1914 by R. W. Seton-Watson, page 260:

Already on 4 May Ficquelmont was forced to resign, and only two days later Hummelauer was sent to London, with virtually a free hand to negotiate. On 23 May he saw Palmerston and suggested that Lombardy-Venetia might be formed into an autonomous Kingdom, under an Austrian Archduke as Viceroy, but with its national Parliament, Government and army. Palmerston in reply suggested that it would be better to renounce Lombardy outright, while reserving the concessions already indicated for Venetia. Hummelauer, much impressed by his friendly reception, urged Vienna to accept, arguing that British mediation on such lines "would drag our enemies before the judgment-seat of Europe". The Italophil group in the British cabinet, led by Russell and Minto, insisted that this was still inadequate, but Palmerston got them to consent, if to Lombardy were added "such portions of Venetian territory as may be agreed upon between the respective parties". This, he told Russell, most disingenuously, gave away nothing to Austria, because the Italians would agree to "nothing less than the whole: but it saves the Austrian honour". To Hummelauer, however, he represented it as a substantial concession, while adding significantly that what Austria needed was "a good victory" (une bonne bataille de gagnée). On 10 June, then, the Pillersdorff Cabinet accepted in principle the independence of Lombardy and the main lines of the Hummelauer proposals to Palmerston. A week later, Baron Wessenberg, the one Austrian diplomat of whom Palmerston approved, became Foreign Minister: and Palmerston wrote to him in the most cordial terms: "so you are at last at the post which you should have held long ago, and where you would have spared your country and Europe much misfortune. But it is better late than never. Try, I beg you, to put an end to this Italian war as soon as possible, for the result of it, however delayed, cannot any longer be doubtful..."

The Milan Provisional Government, however, in its blind elation, refused to negotiate with Austria, except on the basis of independence for Venetia and South Tirol as well as Lombardy: and hence Wessenberg, though still ready to cede Lombardy and resolved to keep upon good terms with Palmerston, decided perforce to continue the war, and gave Marshal Radetzky a free hand. On 25 July the latter's resounding victory at Custozza transformed the whole situation...


There were two factions in the Milan Provisional Government: the provisional government proper, made up for the most part by conservative and/or moderate members of the aristocracy that supported Charles Albert of Savoy's claim to the role of leader of the future unified Italian state, and the War Council led by Carlo Cattaneo, a federalist and republican that wanted said unified Italian state to resemble Switzerland. What if the pro-Savoy Milan Provisional Government accepted the proposal? Or, what if the Cattaneo-led War Council took over the Provisional Government and accepted the aforementioned offer of independence for the developed and rich Lombardy, creating a republican and federal alternative to Piedmont-Sardinia?
 
*bump*

I thought the forum would've found this relatively obscure diplomatic encounter interesting. I guess I was wrong. :p
 
It was not obscure, really. More of a footnote to the great canvas of 1848.

There is just a major problem in the version provided by Seton-Watson: the plebiscite of 8 June was in favor of the union with Piedmont-Sardinia, and the offer was made to Charles Albert (which makes much more sense for the European mindset of the time: to create a republic out of whole cloth was not something the Austrian court might have accepted). The outcome did not change, unfortunately: Charles Albert refused the proposal. It was a stupid move (the Pope, Tuscany and Two Sicilies had already pulled out, and anyway Charles Albert had already put the whole campaign in jeopardy with his very slow deployment - late in crossing the Ticino, later in reaching the Mincio - and by dithering inside the Quadrilateral when he should have move decisively to interrupt the communications between Linz and the Austrian forces and first of all to stop the reinforcements that Nugent was assembling on the far side of the Isonzo. The keys to the campaign were Vicenza, Treviso and Palmanova, not besieging Peschiera and waiting for what Radetsky would do.
It might be interesting to speculate what would happen if Charles Albert accepts the proposal (but remember that he would have to sell down the river the duchies of Parma and Modena who had already petitioned for annexation to Piedmont: bit of a hard ting to accept politically)

BTW, Cattaneo and his "War Council" were already out of the picture by the time the Piedmontese had crossed the Ticino. Casati - the podesta' of Milan - and his moderate allies had already invited Charles Albert to Milan. With all the sympathy for Cattaneo who was both an idealist and a very upright person, he did not have the capacity to translate his ideals into practicalities, and as far as politics are concerned he was a bit of a babe in the woods.

A last tidbit: the Swiss - who had just come out of a nasty little civil war and were pissed with the Austrian meddling in the confederacy - were willing to send 20,000 volunteers to fight for Milanese freedom against the Austrians. It never went anywhere, and may have been just a way to express displeasure against Austria, but if there had been the right men in Milan...(and in Venice too: Daniele Manin and his "revolution within the law" was admirable but not really the man to capitalize the great opportunity of 1848)
 
A last tidbit: the Swiss - who had just come out of a nasty little civil war and were pissed with the Austrian meddling in the confederacy - were willing to send 20,000 volunteers to fight for Milanese freedom against the Austrians. It never went anywhere, and may have been just a way to express displeasure against Austria, but if there had been the right men in Milan...(and in Venice too: Daniele Manin and his "revolution within the law" was admirable but not really the man to capitalize the great opportunity of 1848)

That would've pleased Cattaneo's Helvetophile self, and pissed off everyone else from Piedmont to Austria. :D It's the sort of thing that could've led to an invasion of Switzerland; considering how hard to invade Switzerland is, it could've ended very badly for Vienna. (I am not being entirely serious, there's no way in the deepest pit of Hell such a thing could ever have happened; but it's exactly the kind of batshit insanity the best pages of military history are made of)
 
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