what if Horatio Nelson is not killed at the battle of Trafalgar

[Cymraeg]

1. Loving one's country is much different from loving one's government. Remember, this was an era when lots of people were overthrowing their own governments in the name of patriotism.

2. How long would it take the other fleets to return home to fight Nelson? Several months at least and they probably wouldn't be in prime fighting condition when they got there.

3. From what I've read about Nelson, he had the unquestioned loyalty and discipline of his men. And they were of the lowest class of British society. In a rebellion they had little to lose and much to gain. Officers who wouldn't go along could be bribed, threatened or replaced.

4. Building ships and building a battle fleet are two different things. Everyone knew that if the French/Spanish fleet were destroyed, it would be a very long time before a naval force that could defeat the British in a standard battle could be constructed.

5. Nelson had the opportunity (whether he had the will is up for debate) to threaten the status quo of British society. Parliament had two options; pray that he didn't or kill him while they had the chance.

Again, I'm not suggesting that Nelson was planning a coup. I'm saying Parliament saw him as much more dangerous than he was useful. I believe that they decided to take a "Better safe than sorry" approach to the situation.

1) Yes, but not in Britain (with the exception of Ireland). Nelson did not support the mutinies in the Royal Navy in 1797, which were largely down to poor rates of pay. Revolutions at this time are seen as Jacobinism - a no-no in the UK at the time.

2) Well for a start there's the Channel Fleet, commanded by William Cornwallis. He detached forces to send to Nelson and was a very competant naval commander.

3) Yes, his men were loyal to Nelson, but anything that smelled of revolution would be labelled Jacobinism - and there would have been ructions.

4) Large French forces were still being blockaded by the Royal Navy in French ports.

5) I really don't think that Parliament saw him as being dangerous, I really don't. He wasn't a political admiral, he didn't speak out about land reform of the Irish Question, or even Catholic Emancipation IIRC.

 

[Cook]

1. Loving one's country is much different from loving one's government. Remember, this was an era when lots of people were overthrowing their own governments in the name of patriotism.

Don’t be ridiculous; Foreigners were overthrowing their Kings, not English Gentlemen. Why, what you are suggesting sounds positively French!

What you are proposing was totally abhorrent to someone of Nelson’s nation, society, class and rank.

 

[Kerblo]

So basically you think this is totally crazy:

A military leader with an un-opposable force that he had the loyalty of and was made up of people with no political voice and no wealth and really nothing to lose was in no way a threat to a government that had a recent history of political unrest in a era when many European governments were being overthrown.

 

[imperialaquila]

Mind you if Nelson is in American Waters in 1812 his prestige will make sure there is a reasonable number and quality of ships, add in his repuation and I suspect the baby US navy will hide in port most of the time

Ah, but imagine the propaganda coup if a lucky American sniper manages to pick him off in battle.

Say an American frigate comes on Nelson's flagship after a storm scatters the rest of its escorts, and have a couple of good shots onboard....

Of course, killing one of Britain's most beloved heroes would practically guarantee at least some territorial losses as a result of the war.

 

[Cook]

So basically you think this is totally crazy:

That a man, the son of a Vicar of the Church of England who, at the age of thirteen joined a fleet steeped in centuries of tradition and, through talent and hard work, rose to the rank of Vice Admiral of that fleet, inducted into the nobility with the rank of Duke, soon to be made immensely wealthy from his part of the Prize Money from the captured French and Spanish ships would consider something as ludicrous as mutiny, would consider for a second taking the tars into his confidence and leading them ashore in some insane attempt to topple the natural order of things?

Yes, it is totally crazy, next you'll be suggesting God isn't an Englishman! And by the way, you may want to look into a few of the differences between a fleet and an army.

 

[Don_Giorgio]

So basically you think this is totally crazy:

A military leader with an un-opposable force that he had the loyalty of and was made up of people with no political voice and no wealth and really nothing to lose was in no way a threat to a government that had a recent history of political unrest in a era when many European governments were being overthrown.

Yes totaaly crazy because as i said above its Nelson and 19th century UK we are talking about here and not some wacko Roman General in the 3rd century... (What you sugested is more propable to happen in Roman or Byzantine times rather than in 19th century UK),

 

[Cockroach]

Ah, but imagine the propaganda coup if a lucky American sniper manages to pick him off in battle.

Say an American frigate comes on Nelson's flagship after a storm scatters the rest of its escorts, and have a couple of good shots onboard...

Image the propaganda coup of the American Frigate subsiquently reduced to match-wood by broadside after broadside from a Ship of the Line.

 

[Geordie]

So basically you think this is totally crazy:

A military leader with an un-opposable force that he had the loyalty of and was made up of people with no political voice and no wealth and really nothing to lose was in no way a threat to a government that had a recent history of political unrest in a era when many European governments were being overthrown.

2) Well for a start there's the Channel Fleet, commanded by William Cornwallis.

Cymraeg answers the bold part for me. For the rest of it, you still haven't established why he would do this, nor why parliament would fear it. Did they fear Wellington rounding up the victorious Peninsular Army for a march on London in 1814-15?

 

[larpsidekick]

Kerblo,
What you forget is that while the ratings had no political voice (we can argue about relative wealth - especially with prize money - and nothing to loose), the officers most certainly did have all of those things, and there is no way a Vice Admiral is doing any kind of mutiny (barrantry, I think, as it's by officers) against the crown, even if said Vice Admiral had some kind of mad moment and tried it.

And by officers - everyone from Warrant Officer up.

And, during the actual RN mutinies of the French Revolutionary Wars - a number of ratings joined the forces against the mutineers. Why would they do any different after a massive victory? The government had no need to be afraid of Nelson and his men.

As to what he'd do post Traf - there'd be no way to prevent him being First Sea Lord as soon as possible. That will have an impact on the RN, but I'd need some long time to think about it with some pretty good works on the RN in that period.

Additionally - the battle may not be so revered without his death. Certianly, there's no 'Nile day' or 'Camperdown night' in the RN - this may, in the long run, improve things for the RN to an alt-Jutland, as the imperative from Trafalgar to just get close and pound away - with all the impact on tactics, build programmes, officer training, expectations on commanders - is less?

 

[cerebus]

As to what he'd do post Traf - there'd be no way to prevent him being First Sea Lord as soon as possible. That will have an impact on the RN, but I'd need some long time to think about it with some pretty good works on the RN in that period.

Additionally - the battle may not be so revered without his death. Certianly, there's no 'Nile day' or 'Camperdown night' in the RN - this may, in the long run, improve things for the RN to an alt-Jutland, as the imperative from Trafalgar to just get close and pound away - with all the impact on tactics, build programmes, officer training, expectations on commanders - is less?

This is the interesting question, personally I think no government would let him anywhere near the levers of power and they will do thier best to keep him in the navy where he probably would prefer to be. Send him to the West Indies seems to be a reasonable compromise. The last thing a government would want is an erratic Admiral on the Bench getting involved in politics and Nelson's private life would soon start to impact on his reputation again. He would probably welcome a chance to leave the country.

If he survives to see and comment on the war with the USA I susspect his damn the guns go straight at them would be modified. He was a superb seaman and commander and would not employ the same tactics he used against the French and Spanish.

 

[Mumby]

Intriguing idea here. If Nelson was given a place in the Caribbean, considering his controversial personality and the support of his men, could he have agreed to help Aaron Burr conquer New Spain? The tangible promise of Marines by one of the finest Admirals in the world could draw more men to Burr's banner. A British puppet Mexico ruled by Emperor Aaron I would be an intriguing prospect. American expansion to the Pacific is cut off, so a confrontation is inevitable. More troops sent to La Plata?

 

[jabberwoky]

wow, This is My most populere thread yet. Thank you all for all the imput!

 

[BigWillyG]

Well Wellington was more or less the same character but he managed to become a Prime Minister... Why not Nelson?

True. Although did Nelson have the women issues Nelson had?

 

[Don_Giorgio]

I wonder how things would turn out if Nelson was captured... I was reading yesterday that the crew of the Redoutable was about to board HMS Victory and capture it when suddenly HMS Temairere appeared and started firing on Redoutable causing her crew to abandon the boarding on HMS Victory...
What happens next with Nelson in french captivity?

 

[carlton_bach]

I wonder how things would turn out if Nelson was captured... I was reading yesterday that the crew of the Redoutable was about to board HMS Victory and capture it when suddenly HMS Temairere appeared and started firing on Redoutable causing her crew to abandon the boarding on HMS Victory...
What happens next with Nelson in french captivity?

How big are the chances? If French sailors started boarding his ship, Nelson would join the fight. The man didn't understand concern for his physical safety, it didn't seem to register with him. As captain of a ship of the line, he personally led boarding parties. He'd probably welcome the opportunity. Most likely he'd get himself killed.

Of course if he ends up captive, and Redoutable makes it back to a French or Spanish port (not a given), Napoleon will make a big issue of it. It'd tarnish his image (especially if he had surrendered, though given his personality, he'd be more likely taken with serious injury), but not by much. He'd most likely be exchanged under cartel, as a gesture of courtesy, and still given appropriate rewards. And Trafalgar would still be a resounding French defeat. But Britain would need to put someone else on that column. One wonders who? Pellew has the right kind of dash, but no big, flashy victories to his name. Smith and Cochrane are too junior (and too inconvenient). The other admirals tend to be a bit - competently dull. It might end up being some anodyne "Britannia ruling the seas".

 

[Don_Giorgio]

How big are the chances? If French sailors started boarding his ship, Nelson would join the fight. The man didn't understand concern for his physical safety, it didn't seem to register with him. As captain of a ship of the line, he personally led boarding parties. He'd probably welcome the opportunity. Most likely he'd get himself killed.

Of course if he ends up captive, and Redoutable makes it back to a French or Spanish port (not a given), Napoleon will make a big issue of it. It'd tarnish his image (especially if he had surrendered, though given his personality, he'd be more likely taken with serious injury), but not by much. He'd most likely be exchanged under cartel, as a gesture of courtesy, and still given appropriate rewards. And Trafalgar would still be a resounding French defeat. But Britain would need to put someone else on that column. One wonders who? Pellew has the right kind of dash, but no big, flashy victories to his name. Smith and Cochrane are too junior (and too inconvenient). The other admirals tend to be a bit - competently dull. It might end up being some anodyne "Britannia ruling the seas".

Are there any chances that Nelson would commit suicide if captured? Or try to escape?
But even he is exchanged he would be pretty much washed out and would faint to obscurity after that...

 

[carlton_bach]

Are there any chances that Nelson would commit suicide if captured? Or try to escape?
But even he is exchanged he would be pretty much washed out and would faint to obscurity after that...

Well, it's Nelson. He'd probably refuse to give up and get himself killed. But I doubt he would commit suicide, and if captured, he'd most likely be too badly hurt for any meaningful escape attempt. Also, he would have to give his word not to try to escape until exchanged, and he'd feel bound by that. This was a different age.

On his return, well, probably honours and plaudits, anyway, though not to the same extent the victor of Trafalgar would have gotten reurniong on the Victory. A slightly weaker position, but he'd still be a significant figure. And he'd still have nowhere to go where his talents would be valuable. If we assume he took another serious wopund, he might finally have to accept he was an invalid (I mean, the one-armed, one-eyed flying purple Frenchie eater thing was getting old).

 

[cerebus]

He'd most likely be exchanged under cartel, as a gesture of courtesy.

Actually the prisoner exchange system had pretty much broken down by this point and Napoleon was perfectly capable of being petty with his enemies. After Trafalgar I would expect him to refuse an exchange out of hand and then simply refuse to discuss the matter.
Considering Nelson's health and the probability he was severely wounded I give him a good 80% chance of dying within the year.

Giving the Royal Navy the toast "Remember Nelson, Never surrender"

 

[Hail Hitler]

Nelson most likely future after 1802

I must say I had to join this forum when I heard you talking about Nelson, something I could not resist at all.

There are two main things I specialize in History and this is Adolf Hitler and alternative History and I thought I could share it with you.

Now the speculation that Nelson would go into politics I think he would do to some extent only after the war with Bonaparte and the USA. In the mean time of two years before the British invasion of the Rio de la Plata, I think Nelson would just raid French and its ally’s ports. Then he would take a big part in the British invasion of the Rio de la Plata and probably be the commanding naval officer of the entire invasion. Now this operation did not last long because we failed, the whole idea was to take over of South America and turn into British colonies. (Research the idea of colonizing South America on the internet)

In between 1805 which is the British invasion of the Rio de la Plata and 1812 which is the start of the British war with USA is 7 years, I think Nelson could win the south American war and do something else. In that time he might retire, take care of a chunk of the British Empire most probably the West Indies, because there is so much water and islands mixed together. (That is the politics side of Nelson's career.)

Now this where is gets complicated. Because Nelson is in the West Indies Britain will nobly think that he is great for the job, which he is. Nelson taking part in the naval war of 1812 has got me thinking. The US used a special type of frigate which was by far faster than the heavy firepower that we used in our navy but Nelson is by far superior in experience than US, so it is two way sword. I could see the US winning but I could also see Nelson winning, it all depends how Nelson does it, he could raid US ports by surprise which is probably the best option, as the way see it.

What really caught my eye was the battle of New Orleans. Now the City of New Orleans lies north of the West Indies and will be easily accessible by Nelson. You can access the City of New Orleans by a very small river, now I thought that a ship should get through there, you would need to check the depth of the sea and if it would stop a first rate ship of the line. Now what was mega interesting was that the battle of New Orleans was fought next to that river, if Horatio Nelson could get HMS Victory on both sides of that battle he could shred the Americans apart with his 104 guns or supply reinforcements to the British.

Now if Nelson smashed the American Navy and helped to win the battle of New Orleans that is all he could do as the rest of the war was fought of land. (If I am wrong tell me as I am not an expert on the Napoleonic wars.) I think those two victories would make Britain win or most defiantly have the upper hand on the sea. If Britain did win because of that as well as making the British colonize South America Nelson would most defiantly be treasured with British fame, money, power and most importantly his victory will trigger another Anglo-American war. When? Impossible to know as the Anglo-American relationship boomed after the war. Nelsons future after the war would probably be retirement as he would be 54, or if the war of 1812 lasts longer 54-56 at the longest. I would retire, if does not, he would probably carry on with his command in the West Indies. Plus I looked there are no wars that Britain took part in after that until about 1830 by which he would be to old, dead or they were to small for Nelson to be interested in.

Thanks for reading

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

Is thete any chance he would act as a mercenary in the Latin American wars of independence as Lord Cochrane did?