Minoru Honda (本田 稔), is a WWII Japanese ace pilot with 17 confirmed Arial victories. Although he supposedly has many more kills from solo flights, he is without a doubt a skilled pilot.
In part two of his interview, he discusses how he saw Hiroshima getting nuked while he was flying a N1K2.

- (10:01)

Later, he was stationed at Omura, next to Nagasaki, when he heard the second bomb. Honda was appalled to find out that his flight group was not given the order to intercept the B-29 as he believes that was the reason why he was stationed there. Later on, he and his friend Genda were willing to intercept the third bomb even if it meant defying the higher-ups.
He also explains that he knew that to take down a B-29 (14:17) by ramming them.

Now this has me wondering, what if Honda Minoru had shot down or rammed the second B-29, Bockscar, either by being given the order to or going on his own?

ki61.jpg
 
It probably wouldn't mean a lot after all. Even if Enola Gay had been shot down.

US planned to have another 7 bombs ready for Olympic for November anyway.

The only thing that could be in doubt is if the planning for Coronet/Olympic would be speeded up. Even that might not be possible. It still takes time to assemble Coronet and the planning horizon was November.

It still looks as though there were two parallel developments: (1) the bomb (2) Olympic

Ivan
 
Even if Enola Gay had been shot down.
Enola Gay was the first bomber, I asked what if he shot down the second one, Bockscar. Wouldn't the destruction of the second A-bomb be a massive hit to moral as the USAF might believe that the Japanese Airspace was no longer under their complete control?
US planned to have another 7 bombs ready for Olympic for November anyway.
This is the first I heard of so many bombs being planned. I know that the third target was Tokyo but a total of 7 bombs?? What is your source?
It still looks as though there were two parallel developments: (1) the bomb (2) Olympic
I'm sorry that you interpreted this as alternate "What if Japan won WWII", but this is simply a look on today where Japan still surrenders to the US with the only difference being only one A-bomb ever being dropped.
 
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Well, Fat Man was already armed by the time he could effect an intercept and for these early atomic weapons that effectively meant they were in a fail-deadly state. So it’s gonna go off once Bockscar crashes to the relevant altitude.

Now, of course, that means it won’t be going off over a city, so it’s a few square miles of woodland and maybe some villages which get vaped.
 
Well, Fat Man was already armed by the time he could effect an intercept and for these early atomic weapons that effectively meant they were in a fail-deadly state. So it’s gonna go off once Bockscar crashes to the relevant altitude.

Now, of course, that means it won’t be going off over a city, so it’s a few square miles of woodland and maybe some villages which get vaped.

I agree that this would be the case. But how would the US and its military react? What would have happen to Honda in the short term and long term if he shot down or rammed into the B-29?
 
I agree that this would be the case. But how would the US and its military react? What would have happen to Honda in the short term and long term if he shot down or rammed into the B-29?

There are a range of scenarios.

Honda shoots down the plane and gets a medal, the bomb goes off somewhere harmless and Japan still surrenders quickly fearing further attacks. That is the best case outcome in my view.

Worst Case, and perhaps more likely.

Honda gets killed ramming it so the medal is posthumous.
Japan decides that it can stop future raids and holds out longer.
Allies carry out more fighter sweeps and airfield raids gutting the remaining air defence and then as the bombs come available destroy a few more cities with them. Meanwhile starvation and firebombing further reduce the Japanese population, a greater threat than the atomic bombs in some people’s view.

Japan not surrendering means a combination of carrying out the invasion plan and blockades, there was a clear strategy lined up. Losses would have been heavy, particularly on the Japanese side given the dense civilian population.

Honda probably did Japan a favour by leaving the plane to carry out the mission. I imagine it haunted him, but he could have led to a situation in which further bombs were dropped on Japan.
 
Now this has me wondering, what if Honda Minoru had shot down or rammed the second B-29, Bockscar, either by being given the order to or going on his own?

Well he has to guess correctly, wasn't the only plane in the air

Nagasaki Mission Planes
Bockscar. Strike plane carrying Fat Man.
The Great Artiste. Observation/instrument plane.
Big Stink. Camera plane.
Enola Gay. Weather reconnaissance.
Laggin' Dragon. Weather reconnaissance.
Full House. Backup strike plane on Iwo Jima.

Ramming Big Stink doesn't really change a thing, does it?
 
Well he has to guess correctly, wasn't the only plane in the air

Nagasaki Mission Planes
Bockscar. Strike plane carrying Fat Man.
The Great Artiste. Observation/instrument plane.
Big Stink. Camera plane.
Enola Gay. Weather reconnaissance.
Laggin' Dragon. Weather reconnaissance.
Full House. Backup strike plane on Iwo Jima.

Ramming Big Stink doesn't really change a thing, does it?
Nice find, thank you.
 
Schock:

Sorry for having confused myself. I was convinced that you meant the immediate ramifications if Bokscar had been downed. I do not think there would have been any major differences. My comment that even if Enola Gay had gone down would not have caused major differences is based on:

1) There were several bombs planned in the immediate future.
2) The only thing that could have been changed would then be a focus on invasion (i.e. Downfall). The change could be to speed it up, but with a 2 month window to go, it is hard to see any major changes to Downfall. It is hard to assemble all those ships to begin with and to even try to do it faster is a major task.

The availability of bombs is based on Wikipedia, where the text is as follows, incl. of the Wiki references for the statements:

"""""""""
On Marshall's orders, Major General John E. Hull looked into the tactical use of nuclear weapons for the invasion of the Japanese home islands, even after the dropping of two strategic atomic bombs on Japan (Marshall did not think that the Japanese would capitulate immediately).

Colonel Lyle E. Seeman reported that at least seven Fat Man-type plutonium implosion bombs would be available by X-Day, [MY NOTE: Downfall was scheduled for November 1945] which could be dropped on defending forces. Seeman advised that American troops not enter an area hit by a bomb for "at least 48 hours"; the risk of nuclear fallout was not well understood, and such a short amount of time after detonation would have resulted in substantial radiation exposure for the American troops. (81)

Ken Nichols, the District Engineer of the Manhattan Engineer District, wrote that at the beginning of August 1945, "[p]lanning for the invasion of the main Japanese home islands had reached its final stages, and if the landings actually took place, we might supply about fifteen atomic bombs to support the troops." (82)


(81): Frank, Richard B. (1999). Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire. New York: Random House. ISBN 978-0-679-41424-7.

(82): Nichols, Kenneth (1987). The Road to Trinity: A Personal Account of How America's Nuclear Policies Were Made. New York: Morrow. ISBN 978-0-688-06910-0.
""""""""""""""

I fully agree that if Bokscar would have gone down, but Enola Gay had been successful, the effects on Japan today would have been more or less the same.

IN THE EVENT (my addition to your post) that both Enola Gay and Bokscar had gone down, Downfall might have gone through.
The long term consequences of having had millions of Japanese dead might have been more severe for any future Japan.

Would it still have been felt? I think so. Instead of memorials to the nuclear victims we might have seen every single family having been decimated.

… and that also goes if US had mined the surrounding water-ways - which might have caused even more death due to starvation.

Japan might have been lucky that chucking mines in water was not excessively 'sexy' for B-29 crews.

Ivan
 
Schock:

Sorry for having confused myself. I was convinced that you meant the immediate ramifications if Bokscar had been downed. I do not think there would have been any major differences. My comment that even if Enola Gay had gone down would not have caused major differences is based on:

1) There were several bombs planned in the immediate future.
2) The only thing that could have been changed would then be a focus on invasion (i.e. Downfall). The change could be to speed it up, but with a 2 month window to go, it is hard to see any major changes to Downfall. It is hard to assemble all those ships to begin with and to even try to do it faster is a major task.

The availability of bombs is based on Wikipedia, where the text is as follows, incl. of the Wiki references for the statements:

"""""""""
On Marshall's orders, Major General John E. Hull looked into the tactical use of nuclear weapons for the invasion of the Japanese home islands, even after the dropping of two strategic atomic bombs on Japan (Marshall did not think that the Japanese would capitulate immediately).

Colonel Lyle E. Seeman reported that at least seven Fat Man-type plutonium implosion bombs would be available by X-Day, [MY NOTE: Downfall was scheduled for November 1945] which could be dropped on defending forces. Seeman advised that American troops not enter an area hit by a bomb for "at least 48 hours"; the risk of nuclear fallout was not well understood, and such a short amount of time after detonation would have resulted in substantial radiation exposure for the American troops. (81)

Ken Nichols, the District Engineer of the Manhattan Engineer District, wrote that at the beginning of August 1945, "[p]lanning for the invasion of the main Japanese home islands had reached its final stages, and if the landings actually took place, we might supply about fifteen atomic bombs to support the troops." (82)


(81): Frank, Richard B. (1999). Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire. New York: Random House. ISBN 978-0-679-41424-7.

(82): Nichols, Kenneth (1987). The Road to Trinity: A Personal Account of How America's Nuclear Policies Were Made. New York: Morrow. ISBN 978-0-688-06910-0.
""""""""""""""

I fully agree that if Bokscar would have gone down, but Enola Gay had been successful, the effects on Japan today would have been more or less the same.

IN THE EVENT (my addition to your post) that both Enola Gay and Bokscar had gone down, Downfall might have gone through.
The long term consequences of having had millions of Japanese dead might have been more severe for any future Japan.

Would it still have been felt? I think so. Instead of memorials to the nuclear victims we might have seen every single family having been decimated.

… and that also goes if US had mined the surrounding water-ways - which might have caused even more death due to starvation.

Japan might have been lucky that chucking mines in water was not excessively 'sexy' for B-29 crews.

Ivan
Thank you so much for your explanations and sources. I think I have had all my questions on the topic answered now.
 
I'd recommend adding to ivanotters list: Rhodes 'The Making of the Atomic Bomb'. In the closing chapters Rhoades discusses the plans and reality of post September 1945 atomic weapons production. The key point is that the Haniford breeder reactors were shut down in September for improvements & repair. The fast track construction and short testing left a lot of changes on the To Do list. So, we don't know exactly what the Plutonium production might have been. Rhoades presents that the original estimate for 1946 production was enough for 36+ bomb cores. Once the reactors were running that was reduced to somewhere around 24 or less. I recall Rhodes placed it at 18 minimum. He also states that when production was ceased in September the estimate was five additional cores could be provided. But, its not clear if this includes the core enroute to Tinian in August and a second core being cast and machined in the US. There were plenty of actual bomb cases on Tinian & under assembly in the US. Parsons and the others had a philosophy of triple redundancy, so they ended up with about three bombs for each Plutonium core anticipated in 1945.

The other 99.2% of Rhodes text concerns the events leading to the first atomic attacks, and the attacks themselves. Particularly interesting was the identification of the numerous European physicists, refugees who were involved in the British and US development. Rhodes also briefly touches on the 1939-40 French research. They thought enough of it to purchase all of Norsk Hydros heavy water production in 1939, and have every bit of it off to France in march 1940. In June 1940 someone in Britain thought enough of the subject to ensure the refugee physicists in France were evacuated to the UK.
 
It is actually a very interesting thought. If I may stretch this a little bit?

Enola Gay dropped the 'Little Boy' which was Uranium based. It was pretty clear it would work, so no testing was necessary. HOWEVER, it used up nearly all Uranium available.

Bokscar dropped 'Fat Man'. This was the implosion bomb based on Plutonium.

The 'front runner' to Fat Man was 'Thin Man'. A gun-type plutonium based bomb. and that didn't work at all.

The firing sequence for implosion to take place must be pretty accurate and is not simple stuff to calculate. And surely not at that time when people used those ruler things.

So, to go with your scenario:
Trinity test is a fizzle, but the engineers believe thy have it sorted for the real thing
Enola Gay is successful.
Bokscar gets downed - nobody knows if it would work or not.

Now we can look at a few things:

Downfall goes ahead
There is no time to build more bombs. There is no more Uranium left
Trinity was a fizzle, so the focus is on Thin Man.
Next test is Thin Man and that is a fizzle (the physics will not allow the gun-type plutonium bomb)

Decision: Invasion in November 1945

Death in the millions (I have seen figures of 25 million all in all - can't find where)

Consequence: Japan is devastated in deaths. it will take generations to get demographics back to normal (compare to Russia where population patterns were skewed for years)
When will Japan be an economic miracle?
What is MacArthur saying to this?

Downfall gets postponed until May 1946
Will the war fizzle?
Will the mining go ahead?
Will the focus be on tactical nuclear to support the invasion/

Russian invasion takes place
Japan throws in the towel before another bomb is ready

Consequence:
No faith in Thin Man
Fat Man bombs will need more testing
US limits funding to testing only
UK takes the lead. The first research reactor went critical in 1947 and with full force forward, a few bombs are ready in 1948
Russia tinkers along, but is having the same problems as they do not have access to US research now

… and then the horror:
Insofar as nobody really understands the immense power, and UK has got a working solution UK decides to play chicken with USSR in 1948 in Berlin.
So, as a few RAF transports are shot down, it is time. Karlshorst gets a small bomb and now the genie is out the bottle.

How do you like that for a 'thread capture'?

(PS: the analysis is probably valid. The berlin one is just to add flavor)

Ivan
 
Carl: our posts just crossed.

It was also a matter of getting enough Uranium. Congo was the place to go for that.

Wiki says:
"
In May 1944, Sir John Anderson and US Ambassador John Winant negotiated a deal with the Belgian government in exile and Edgar Sengier, the director of Union Minière, for the mine to be reopened and 1,720 long tons (1,750 t) of ore to be purchased at $1.45 a pound.[100] American and British leaders concluded that it was in their best interest to gain control of as much of the world's uranium deposits as possible. The Combined Development Trust was established for this purpose on 14 June 1944.[101] It consisted of three American, two British and one Canadian members, with an American, initially Groves, as chairman.[102] By the end of the war, it had control of 97 per cent of the world's uranium and 65 per cent of the thorium""""

One thing, however, was possession, the other one was processing.
 
One thing, however, was possession, the other one was processing.

The records I have lump U-235 production together for 1945 and 1946, where it was around 1000kg at end of year.

You need around 15kg of HEU when used in an implosion device, and 60 for a gun type
 
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