What if HMS Courageous isn't sunk in WW2?

[ghappy1000]

How much difference would it make if HMS Courageous isn't sunk by U 29?
Can it be enough to keep Italy and Japan neutral or not? [provided the carrier saves HMS Glorious and sinks most of the German navy].
[Most likely not, but I want to see a reaction.]
How much difference does it make to WW2 overall?
Possible scenario:
17 September 1939: HMS Courageous's aircraft sink U 29 or the carrier is recalled after failed torpedo attacks on the carrier or HMS Ark Royal.
October to December: Search for the Graf Spee. With the carrier, the search goes better and Graf Spee gets sunk by planes.
April 1940: HMS Glorious isn't sent to Norway or Royal Navy attacks on the German navy go more successfully if HMS Glorious is sent.
June 1940: HMS Glorious isn't sunk because of butterflies. If they're big enough, Mussolini stays neutral, Mers El Kebir does not occur or is more successful with torpedo planes or France might even fight on, but unlikely.
August: HMS Courageous is used to transport planes and stays in Force H or moves to Gibraltar.
November: One or two more carriers used would sink 3 Italian battleships.
Or maybe 4. A successful Taranto enables Operation White to succeed.
December: Butterflies make Operation Compass slightly more successful.
January 1941: One more carrier would prevent the damage inflicted on HMS Illustrious. HMS Eagle is sent to the South Atlantic earlier. HMS Formidable stays with Home Fleet .
March 1941: HMS Courageous and Illustrious contribute more to the Italian debacle at Cape Matapan by sinking Vittorio Veneto. Afterwards, the carrier leaves the Mediterranean.
April 1941: HMS Courageous conducts attacks on shipping in Italian East Africa. It returns to the Mediterranean.
May 1941: HMS Courageous provides air cover for cruisers off Crete. The Royal Navy losses off Crete are avoided or reduced. Meanwhile, butterflies result in the invasion of Crete failing or cancelled. [More battleships sunk reduces sea attack worries and extra planes reassure Freyberg that the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean reach Crete safely and shoot down paratroopers, perhaps diverting planes.]

 

[Just Leo]

If Courageous isn't sunk, a lesson isn't learned.

 

[ghappy1000]

If Courageous isn't sunk, a lesson isn't learned.

What lesson? Not using fleet carriers for anti submarine patrols?

 

[Just Leo]

What lesson? Not using fleet carriers for anti submarine patrols?

.....without sufficient escorts, dedicated escorts.

 

[ghappy1000]

Part ii of " Courageous in Combat "

May 1941 continuation: Meanwhile, back in the North Atlantic, HMS Hood, Prince of Wales, carriers Victorious and Formidable and cruisers and destroyers escorting encounter Bismarck, Prinz Eugen and Graf Zeppelin. Battle of the Denmark Straits goes as per otl except for the carriers. [Major changes during the spring of 1940 would force the Germans to complete Graf Zeppelin.] In the battle, the Hood and Prince Of Wales are sunk, but Bismarck is damaged and Graf Zeppelin is sunk, although costing the British some planes from the air groups. The Bismarck is later crippled by HMS Ark Royal's Swordfish planes and sunk. [HMS King George V is sunk by aircraft.]
June: Hitler, angered by the loss of the navy, orders it to remain in port, the Baltic or go to the scrapyard. He had enough of wasting steel on the navy and wasting troops in the Mediterranean, which distracted him from the main goal of his ideology, Operation Barbarossa. Operation Barbarossa goes more or less as per otl. HMS Courageous is withdrawn from the Mediterranean.
October: With 2 Queen Elizabeth class battleships, the Courageous is sent to the Far East.
November: U 81 does not sink Ark Royal due to butterflies [maybe it sinks a Queen Elizabeth class battleship instead].
December: HMS Courageous manages to destroy the scouting plane reporting Force Z's location. Force Z manages to destroy half a Japanese cruiser or battleship division's equivalent of ships [2 cruisers or 2 battleships] , a few destroyers and some critical transport ships.
However, Force Z gets sunk by Long Lance torpedoes.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

How much difference would it make if HMS Courageous isn't sunk by U 29?
Can it be enough to keep Italy and Japan neutral or not? [provided the carrier saves HMS Glorious and sinks most of the German navy].
[Most likely not, but I want to see a reaction.]
How much difference does it make to WW2 overall?
Possible scenario:
17 September 1939: HMS Courageous's aircraft sink U 29 or the carrier is recalled after failed torpedo attacks on the carrier or HMS Ark Royal.
October to December: Search for the Graf Spee. With the carrier, the search goes better and Graf Spee gets sunk by planes.
April 1940: HMS Glorious isn't sent to Norway or Royal Navy attacks on the German navy go more successfully if HMS Glorious is sent.
June 1940: HMS Glorious isn't sunk because of butterflies. If they're big enough, Mussolini stays neutral, Mers El Kebir does not occur or is more successful with torpedo planes or France might even fight on, but unlikely.
August: HMS Courageous is used to transport planes and stays in Force H or moves to Gibraltar.
November: One or two more carriers used would sink 3 Italian battleships.
Or maybe 4. A successful Taranto enables Operation White to succeed.
December: Butterflies make Operation Compass slightly more successful.
January 1941: One more carrier would prevent the damage inflicted on HMS Illustrious. HMS Eagle is sent to the South Atlantic earlier. HMS Formidable stays with Home Fleet .
March 1941: HMS Courageous and Illustrious contribute more to the Italian debacle at Cape Matapan by sinking Vittorio Veneto. Afterwards, the carrier leaves the Mediterranean.
April 1941: HMS Courageous conducts attacks on shipping in Italian East Africa. It returns to the Mediterranean.
May 1941: HMS Courageous provides air cover for cruisers off Crete. The Royal Navy losses off Crete are avoided or reduced. Meanwhile, butterflies result in the invasion of Crete failing or cancelled. [More battleships sunk reduces sea attack worries and extra planes reassure Freyberg that the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean reach Crete safely and shoot down paratroopers, perhaps diverting planes.]

As just Leo says - A hard lesson was 'learned' in the sinking of Courageous and I would expect that the practice might have continued.

So perhaps Courageous is hit but not sunk and after being repaired goes on to provide the RN with an additional useful flat top.

Other knock on effects would be the Ark Royal not being abandoned so soon - the main reason for her relatively quick abandonment was that everyone had been shocked at the loss of Courageous as well as how many crew she took with her when she capsized so quickly.

So the Captain of the Ark, 'haunted' by the loss of so many of Courageous crew decided to save his highly skilled crew and abandoned ship.

Subsequant analysis seems to agree that the Ark could (and should) have been saved had a greater damage control effort been made at the time.

Easy for us and others to make this decision after the passage of history but not so easy for the Captain making the decision at the time.

So possibly the knock on effect would be 2 additional flat tops with the Ark - packing Seafire / Martlet - possibly making it to the Far East with Repulse and POW.

Now that would be interesting

 

[ghappy1000]

As just Leo says - A hard lesson was 'learned' in the sinking of Courageous and I would expect that the practice might have continued.
Other knock on effects would be the Ark Royal not being abandoned so soon - the main reason for her relatively quick abandonment was that everyone had been shocked at the loss of Courageous as well as how many crew she took with her when she capsized so quickly.

So the Captain of the Ark, 'haunted' by the loss of so many of Courageous crew decided to save his highly skilled crew and abandoned ship.

Subsequant analysis seems to agree that the Ark could (and should) have been saved had a greater damage control effort been made at the time.

Easy for us and others to make this decision after the passage of history but not so easy for the Captain making the decision at the time.

So possibly the knock on effect would be 2 additional flat tops with the Ark - packing Seafire / Martlet - possibly making it to the Far East with Repulse and POW.

Now that would be interesting

Actually, to make the story more interesting, Courageous is not hit by the torpedoes or they don't work. In otl, it was hit by 2 torpedoes and sank, so this means being hit by one torpedo.
Actually, the carrier surviving undamaged makes a bigger difference because it can contribute to the Atlantic and Mediterranean battles.
Actually, 2 years' worth of naval butterflies would prevent the torpedoing of Ark Royal. The u boat that sank it would be butterflied due to being sunk. Otherwise, higher Axis battleship losses and/or Crete holding means that the commander targets a battleship to help Italian fighting capabilities. After all, the Illustrious' damage and sinking of Glorious might be butterflied [and would be in this timeline].

 

[deathscompanion1]

Actually, to make the story more interesting, Courageous is not hit by the torpedoes or they don't work. In otl, it was hit by 2 torpedoes and sank, so this means being hit by one torpedo.
Actually, the carrier surviving undamaged makes a bigger difference because it can contribute to the Atlantic and Mediterranean battles.
Actually, 2 years' worth of naval butterflies would prevent the torpedoing of Ark Royal. The u boat that sank it would be butterflied due to being sunk. Otherwise, higher Axis battleship losses and/or Crete holding means that the commander targets a battleship to help Italian fighting capabilities. After all, the Illustrious' damage and sinking of Glorious might be butterflied [and would be in this timeline].

Or it gets sunk somewhere else.

Vulnerable and high value ships operating in a war zone are going to be in danger from time to time it just happened that the times they sunk were the times that they got unlucky. There is every chance that they still get sunk somewhere else or that butterflies cause a worse disaster elsewhere.

 

[ghappy1000]

Or it gets sunk somewhere else.

Vulnerable and high value ships operating in a war zone are going to be in danger from time to time it just happened that the times they sunk were the times that they got unlucky. There is every chance that they still get sunk somewhere else or that butterflies cause a worse disaster elsewhere.

Remember this is just a possible scenario. And, there are possibilities that HMS Courageous surviving can give us an Allied screw or something [and not just naval decisions, but also army decisions and operation/weaker countries entering WW2 decisions etc.]. Since the carrier is lost during the first days of WW2, there are many butterflies that can occur.
Possible allied screws from HMS Courageous surviving:
1] Attack on northern Germany and/or the Baltic.
2] Continuous usage of fleet carriers on anti submarine or raiding missions.
3] Attempts at holding the Channel Islands or useless parts of France.
All these 3 are unlikely. However, there are other issues to be taken into consideration.
If the torpedo attack on Courageous fails because the torpedoes launched are defective, the Germans would fix torpedo problems earlier.
Hitler can scrap the fleet and concentrate on u boat, aircraft, gun and panzer production, which increases their effectiveness.
Mussolini can stay neutral or behave more cautiously, which saves Germany the Balkan Campaigns and help them launch Barbarossa earlier, however, that's debatable especially with Allied screw unless Barbarossa succeeds. [and we know that the operation would be doomed to failure, especially by Hitler's standards.] Cancelling Barbarossa is impossible though.
The Japanese can also behave more cautiously [won't prevent American entry to WW2 though, but they get less victory disease]. Meanwhile, the Allies can get overconfident, especially after defeating Italy and/or Japan before 1943.

 

[ghappy1000]

1942

After the destruction of critical transport ships and cruisers, the Japanese advance on Malaya, the Philippines and Dutch East Indies is slowed down by about 2 months and Burma never falls.
Back at Pearl, Lexington and Enterprise might be there to be sunk, but very unlikely. [The British Indian Ocean battle doesn't happen if this unlikely situation happens.]
May 1942: Due to butterflies, the Indian Ocean Raid is launched a month or so later. In the battle, the British lose the fast ships involved but not before sinking Shokaku and Zuikaku. The British went into initial panic, but their fears are temporarily relieved when Shokaku and Zuikaku are sunk.
June 1942: At Midway, the Japanese encounter the entire US carrier fleet in the Pacific. The Japanese sink 2 US carriers for the loss of all 4 involved.
August 1942: USS Wasp manages to save HMS Eagle from being sunk, but HMS Rodney is sunk by dive bombers the next day.
September 1942: Guadalcanal launched as per otl. The USS North Carolina is sunk by submarine I 19 due to US carrier losses causing it to change targets for torpedoing.
[HMS Argus, Furious, Eagle and Hermes are left for Mediterranean and Home Fleet duties if the USS Wasp proceeds to the Home Fleet.]
[Possibly, without the lessons learnt from otl Courageous's sinking, one US carrier can be sunk while on anti submarine patrols.]
[Fast ships in British Indian Ocean Fleet are Courageous, Glorious, Ark Royal, all armoured carriers and battleships Warspite and Duke of York, plus cruiser and destroyer escort.]
Or otherwise, the British avoid combat with the Japanese and bomb Japanese controlled Malaya just as they send forces to the Coral Sea. The Japanese, with 4 carriers sink all Royal Navy carriers involved but lose the 4 they send for the intercept. [Shokaku and Zuikaku are sent to the Coral Sea.] The US loses the Lexington and Yorktown sent, but sinks Shokaku and Zuikaku.
Losses in second scenario: Same as bottom, but without USS Hornet and USS Yorktown replacing USS Enterprise.
27 May 1942: The Free French are defeated Battle of Bir Hakemn, but more British troops and lack of supplies for the Axis keep Tobruk holding until August 1942. Romnel is defeated more decisively at El Alamein and the Africa Corps are trapped and forced to surrender earlier.
8 November 1942: Operation Torch launched as per otl.
13 November 1942: Battlecruiser Hiel damaged by US cruiser gunfire and is sunk by USS Washington along with Kirishima.

 

[ghappy1000]

Capital ship losses in this scenario

10 April 1940: German Battlecruisers Gneisenau to gunfire and Scharnhorst to torpedo planes from Courageous. British battlecruisers Renown and Repulse to gunfire.
3 July 1940: French battleships to gunfire at Mers El Kebir and maybe a British battleship. [depends on course of events, but most likely as per otl.]
11 November 1940: Battleships Littorio, Conte di Cavour and Caio Duillo to Swordfish torpedo attacks. [Vittorio Veneto gets a torpedo hit as well.]
28 March 1941: Vittorio Veneto and HMS Nelson at Cape Matapan.
24 May 1941: HMS Hood and HMS Prince of Wales to gunfire from Bismarck, HMS King George V to torpedo attacks from Graf Zeppelin [not mentioned] and Graf Zeppelin to Swordfish from Formidable and Victorious.
27 May 1941: Bismarck sunk as per otl after being crippled by Swordfish torpedoes.
13 November 1941: HMS Malaya to U 81.
25 November 1941: HMS Barham to U 331.
9/10 December 1941: HMS Queen Elizabeth and Valiant to Japanese long lance torpedoes. Japanese battlecruisers Kongo and Hiel to gunfire.
January 1942: USS Saratoga to Japanese submarine attacks.
March 1942: Tirpitz [after getting torpedo damage to the rudder] at Battle of Barents Sea.
9 May [or June] 1942: Carriers Ark Royal, Courageous, Glorious and British Illustrious class carriers to air attack along with Warspite and Duke of York.
The Japanese lose carriers Shokaku and Zuikaku.
4 June [or July] 1942: Carriers Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu and Ryujo for the loss of USS Hornet, Lexington and Entreprise.
12 August 1942: HMS Rodney to dive bombers from Luftwaffe.
15 September 1942: USS North Carolina to I 19.
26 October 1942: USS Yorktown and HMS Anson at Santa Cruz along with Japanese carriers Junyo and Hiyo.
13 November 1942: Hiel and Kirishima to USS Washington.
15 November 1942: USS Indiana, South Dakota and Washington at Guadalcanal for the loss of Yamato.

 

[ghappy1000]

1943

January: Butterflies mean that Guadalcanal Campaign ends earlier compared to otl.
February: Sixth Army surrenders at Stalingrad. The Russians push the Germans back to the Ukraine before a counterattack restores the situation by encircling the major Russian armies, although the Russians break out.
April: The Americans reach Tunisia and force the surrender of 200,000 troops from Panzer Army Afrika and the Africa Corps are cut off.
July: Operation Husky is launched. The carriers HMS Eagle and Argus are sunk by torpedo bombers.
September: The Allies land on Italy to force Italian surrender.
In the Pacific, Operation Galvanic is launched 2 months earlier. The attack is still a tough fight, but manages to succeed with slightly fewer casualties. The Japanese send the Taiho, Zuiho and Ryuho, but they're sunk although the US loses the USS Essex.

 

[ghappy1000]

More butterflies [Another scenario]

Or this scenario:
Because of the worsening Italian naval situation, the Africa Corps aren't sent to Libya and move to the Eastern Front.
December 1940: Naval butterflies mean that one division sent from Libya to the Sudan is replaced by one that attacked from the south otl. Operation Compass is more successful.
February 1941: The 7th armoured division stays at Libya because an Indian division replaces the armoured division. Or, the Indians can be sent to Crete and the New Zealand Division remains in North Africa.
September 1941: Without the Africa Corps and the German paratroopers defeated at Crete, the Italians are defeated in Libya for good. The British plan an operation to attack Vichy North Africa, but is postponed. [Maybe the Africa Corps get sent to Tunisia or are not sent, or are evacuated after the debacle at Crete to avoid burdening supplies, but are sunk at sea. The Italians lose their last 2 battleships for the loss of 1 or 2 British battleship.]
May 1942: Vichy North Africa is captured once and for all. The Germans plan an operation to occupy Leningrad, but the 11th Army is sent to occupy Vichy France in Case Anton.
August 1942: Dieppe Raid as per otl, but the Germans are more nervous.
8 December 1942: The Allies launch Operation Torch by landing at Sicily. The operation is finished by April 1943.
July 1943: Allies land in Calabria and the Germans cancel Kursk shortly after receiving reports of further landings at Taranto and Salerno. By August, all of southern Italy is in Allied hands.

 

[HMS Warspite]

After the destruction of critical transport ships and cruisers, the Japanese advance on Malaya, the Philippines and Dutch East Indies is slowed down by about 2 months and Burma never falls.
Back at Pearl, Lexington and Enterprise might be there to be sunk, but very unlikely. [The British Indian Ocean battle doesn't happen if this unlikely situation happens.]
May 1942: Due to butterflies, the Indian Ocean Raid is launched a month or so later. In the battle, the British lose the fast ships involved but not before sinking Shokaku and Zuikaku. The British went into initial panic, but their fears are temporarily relieved when Shokaku and Zuikaku are sunk.
June 1942: At Midway, the Japanese encounter the entire US carrier fleet in the Pacific. The Japanese sink 2 US carriers for the loss of all 4 involved.
August 1942: USS Wasp manages to save HMS Eagle from being sunk, but HMS Rodney is sunk by dive bombers the next day.
September 1942: Guadalcanal launched as per otl. The USS North Carolina is sunk by submarine I 19 due to US carrier losses causing it to change targets for torpedoing.
[HMS Argus, Furious, Eagle and Hermes are left for Mediterranean and Home Fleet duties if the USS Wasp proceeds to the Home Fleet.]
[Possibly, without the lessons learnt from otl Courageous's sinking, one US carrier can be sunk while on anti submarine patrols.]
[Fast ships in British Indian Ocean Fleet are Courageous, Glorious, Ark Royal, all armoured carriers and battleships Warspite and Duke of York, plus cruiser and destroyer escort.]
Or otherwise, the British avoid combat with the Japanese and bomb Japanese controlled Malaya just as they send forces to the Coral Sea. The Japanese, with 4 carriers sink all Royal Navy carriers involved but lose the 4 they send for the intercept. [Shokaku and Zuikaku are sent to the Coral Sea.] The US loses the Lexington and Yorktown sent, but sinks Shokaku and Zuikaku.
Losses in second scenario: Same as bottom, but without USS Hornet and USS Yorktown replacing USS Enterprise.
27 May 1942: The Free French are defeated Battle of Bir Hakemn, but more British troops and lack of supplies for the Axis keep Tobruk holding until August 1942. Romnel is defeated more decisively at El Alamein and the Africa Corps are trapped and forced to surrender earlier.
8 November 1942: Operation Torch launched as per otl.
13 November 1942: Battlecruiser Hiel damaged by US cruiser gunfire and is sunk by USS Washington along with Kirishima.

Highly unlikely, as the Mediteranean would have priority, with the Eastern Front secondary at best. Sending all Carriers to the East is making no sense at all. They were already needed to get local airsuperiority in the Med, as well in the Atlantic. At best only one carrier could be spared for a while, prefered to be an older one, with no armored flightdeck, as these were required in the Med.

 

[sparky42]

Highly unlikely, as the Mediteranean would have priority, with the Eastern Front secondary at best. Sending all Carriers to the East is making no sense at all. They were already needed to get local airsuperiority in the Med, as well in the Atlantic. At best only one carrier could be spared for a while, prefered to be an older one, with no armored flightdeck, as these were required in the Med.

Not too mention Furious being the training carrier (and a bit shagged at that), or the fact that the other three mentioned in the Med have tiny airgroups and wouldn't be able to protect themselves let alone convoys from air attack.

Or how Swordfish are going to sink 2 carriers (maybe a night attack?)

 

[ghappy1000]

Not too mention Furious being the training carrier (and a bit shagged at that), or the fact that the other three mentioned in the Med have tiny airgroups and wouldn't be able to protect themselves let alone convoys from air attack.

Or how Swordfish are going to sink 2 carriers (maybe a night attack?)

Okay, maybe a night attack but a counter attack the next day sinks the carriers. And, actually there were 3 armoured carriers in the Far East otl, with no carrier losses, at least Courageous, Glorious, Ark Royal and the first two Illustrious class could be sent to the Indian Ocean.

 

[sparky42]

Okay, maybe a night attack but a counter attack the next day sinks the carriers. And, actually there were 3 armoured carriers in the Far East otl, with no carrier losses, at least Courageous, Glorious, Ark Royal and the first two Illustrious class could be sent to the Indian Ocean.

And unless you somehow hand wave new aircraft for them they are still going to take massive losses. Nor would the UK concentrate all the biggest carriers in the East, even if you wrap up the Middle East convoys/fleets would still need air protection in the Med and the ones you've suggested can't provide that

There's a TL about Glorious surviving I think and even that isn't as wanking as this suggests, (in fact it's one I really like but still). Suggesting that somehow no losses are taken in the Carrier fleet after a couple of years of warfare doesn't add up with the losses all carriers took in the war.

 

[HMS Warspite]

Okay, maybe a night attack but a counter attack the next day sinks the carriers. And, actually there were 3 armoured carriers in the Far East otl, with no carrier losses, at least Courageous, Glorious, Ark Royal and the first two Illustrious class could be sent to the Indian Ocean.

The HMS Illustrious, HMS Formidable and HMS Indomitable were there only for a few months, as Torch was already demanding their return on short notice. In fact only HMS Illustrious stayed in this theater for a few weeks more, untill she too was recalled.

Central point is: you cannot change the priorities of war, by a single slip of the pencil. Europe came first and always would, being cruicial for the future of the world, which Asia was not.

 

[ghappy1000]

And unless you somehow hand wave new aircraft for them they are still going to take massive losses. Nor would the UK concentrate all the biggest carriers in the East, even if you wrap up the Middle East convoys/fleets would still need air protection in the Med and the ones you've suggested can't provide that

There's a TL about Glorious surviving I think and even that isn't as wanking as this suggests, (in fact it's one I really like but still). Suggesting that somehow no losses are taken in the Carrier fleet after a couple of years of warfare doesn't add up with the losses all carriers took in the war.

Actually, the increase in escorts won't butterfly the torpedo attack on Ark Royal, but the Italian batleship losses would make U 81 think of changing targets from Ark Royal to any battleship escort.
How about this?
USS Wasp is sent to the Pacific and HMS Courageous, Glorious and the first batch of Illustrious class carriers sent to the Far East.
Japanese advance is slowed by 2 months as per this tl, but the UK does not risk a carrier fight in this situation.
In this situation:
June 1942: The Japanese encounter the entire US carrier fleet in the Pacific at Midway. The Japanese, with carriers Shokaku, Zuikaku, Akagi, Kaga, Soryu and Hiryu encounter USS Yorktown, Enterprise, Wasp, Hornet and Lexington.
In the battle, the Japanese lose 6 carriers although they sink all 5 American carriers. [may be too many, but maximum I guest] The assault on Midway fails badly, however. [Or USS Wasp is sent to the Pacific and is lost while on anti submarine patrol.]
August 1942: The Japanese try the battle of Coral Sea. With the heavy carrier losses, the Americans ask Britain to help in defending Port Moresby. The Japanese light carriers and Junyo encounter 4 British carriers [and maybe with Duke of York and Warspite]. The British lose the Pacific carriers although they sink the light Japanese carriers and an air attack sinks Junyo that the offensive has to be cancelled. Meanwhile, the Pedestal Convoy proceeds to Malta with Ark Royal, Victorious and Indomitable.
November 1942: Operation Torch launched. 2 Illustrious class carriers are sent to the Pacific for delayed Guadalcanal.[shorter in this tl]

 

[ghappy1000]

Or this scenario:
Because of the worsening Italian naval situation, the Africa Corps aren't sent to Libya and move to the Eastern Front.
December 1940: Naval butterflies mean that one division sent from Libya to the Sudan is replaced by one that attacked from the south otl. Operation Compass is more successful.
February 1941: The 7th armoured division stays at Libya because an Indian division replaces the armoured division. Or, the Indians can be sent to Crete and the New Zealand Division remains in North Africa.
September 1941: Without the Africa Corps and the German paratroopers defeated at Crete, the Italians are defeated in Libya for good. The British plan an operation to attack Vichy North Africa, but is postponed. [Maybe the Africa Corps get sent to Tunisia or are not sent, or are evacuated after the debacle at Crete to avoid burdening supplies, but are sunk at sea. The Italians lose their last 2 battleships for the loss of 1 or 2 British battleship.]
May 1942: Vichy North Africa is captured once and for all. The Germans plan an operation to occupy Leningrad, but the 11th Army is sent to occupy Vichy France in Case Anton.
August 1942: Dieppe Raid as per otl, but the Germans are more nervous.
8 December 1942: The Allies launch Operation Torch by landing at Sicily. The operation is finished by April 1943.
July 1943: Allies land in Calabria and the Germans cancel Kursk shortly after receiving reports of further landings at Taranto and Salerno. By August, all of southern Italy is in Allied hands.

You can also take this scenario as a guide. Combined with the last post.