What if Hitler was assassinated in 1943?

CalBear

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OK, maybe we can put some of this to bed here. Although the war was not as hopeless in 1943 as it was in '44 it was still pretty well lost. Now after doing a bit of reading I gather that there were two valkyrie attempts in 1943, one in march and one in november(if there were any others please inform me). Now if you make the november one successful then forget it, kurst was already over and the war in the east was just a formality at this point. Now if the attempt in march succeeds then you may effect things, but as I will explain in a bit, it may in fact make Kursk go worse for the Germans.

So lets assume that the attempt in march succeeds, now the conspirators had plans to deal with all the hard liner top brass afterward, but in reality as military men know a plan rarely survives contact with the enemy, so it may be possible to get a clean sweep within a week of the assasination like the original scenario suggests, it was also possible for the bismark to get lucky and sink half the RN too, however it was borderline ASB. Most likely you will have at least one big wig survive and fight for dominance of the Reich for some time, not to mention all of the Waffen SS guys out there who are not likely to simply go along with the same Heer that just assasinated Hitler and the other Nazi elite they were fanatically devoted to. As such you will most likely see SS troops actually fighting the Wermacht(maybe not the entire SS, but various units across German territory). And I have no doubt that this will apply on the Eastern front, which will be really bad for the germans. I wouldn't be surprised to see the conspirators spending months rooting out resistance before they are secure, so it may be possible that there will be no central command of the German army, or even a coherent Eastern front when Kursk comes around. So we may be looking at not the tactical victory and strategic loss that we saw in OTL, but a total loss like Stalingrad was, at best the Germans wait longer as the build up for their offensive takes longer due to confusion at the top as well as likely supply issues resulting from the SS mutiny.

On the west things aren't likely to change, by november the Allies are already firmly entrenched in Italy, and march may result in too long a time of chaos for any extra preparations to happen in Italy. Air superiority should still belong to the Allies, assuming that the conspirators put more resources behind the ME262 that is irrelivant, no matter how many jets the Germans build it won't make a difference, they only feilded about 200 jets out of over 1400 produced. And no matter how much the conspirators distance themselves from the nazis and change plans for production it won't solve the manpower problems, or make the ME262 require a shorter runway, or give the Germans more oil. The only thing that may work out better for the Germans at this point is that the Wermacht will probably be allowed to send tanks from calais to reinforce the forces in Normandy, however, this is no guarantee of German victory, especially considering that casualties OTL were about half of what was expected, so there is still a good chance that even with the extra armored support the Germans still wont inflict enough damage on the allies to defeat overlord.

As far as the home front, for some reason people assume that the american and british people would be all to willing to sue for peace at the earliest possible time. Using the Vietnam war as an example is actually counter to the argument that a peace movement would gain ground so quickly in the US and UK. Vietnam took a decade of fighting with no real provocation or war aims as well as three presidential administrations before the US pulled out considerably longer than WWII was. Besides, FDR wasn't up for re election until 1944, and he wouldn't actually be out of office until january of 1945 if he lost. By that time the war was virtually won, and any president who gets into office after FDR would be breifed on the existence of manhattan as such he would be almost assured victory in Europe within a year. In spite of any campaign promises, being a president who made peace in Europe is good, but being the president who won peace is even better as far as political capital goes.

In short, by 1943 short of ASB intervention there is very little that can happen to change the fate of Germany, with or without hitler.

Well, there's what I've been trying to write all damned day!

Good post.
 

Deleted member 1487

So lets assume that the attempt in march succeeds, now the conspirators had plans to deal with all the hard liner top brass afterward, but in reality as military men know a plan rarely survives contact with the enemy, so it may be possible to get a clean sweep within a week of the assasination like the original scenario suggests, it was also possible for the bismark to get lucky and sink half the RN too, however it was borderline ASB. Most likely you will have at least one big wig survive and fight for dominance of the Reich for some time, not to mention all of the Waffen SS guys out there who are not likely to simply go along with the same Heer that just assasinated Hitler and the other Nazi elite they were fanatically devoted to. As such you will most likely see SS troops actually fighting the Wermacht(maybe not the entire SS, but various units across German territory). And I have no doubt that this will apply on the Eastern front, which will be really bad for the germans. I wouldn't be surprised to see the conspirators spending months rooting out resistance before they are secure, so it may be possible that there will be no central command of the German army, or even a coherent Eastern front when Kursk comes around. So we may be looking at not the tactical victory and strategic loss that we saw in OTL, but a total loss like Stalingrad was, at best the Germans wait longer as the build up for their offensive takes longer due to confusion at the top as well as likely supply issues resulting from the SS mutiny.

Though I agree with most of what you wrote, I have some doubts about this part. Most of it works, but to think that all of a sudden the Heer and SS with start killing each other at the front while the Russians are on the otherside of no-mans-land is ASB. No doubt they would be fighting back in Germany, but the Frontkämpfer are not going to put themselves at the mercy of the Russians while they settle political squables. No, if anything Kursk wouldn't happen as OKW is thrown into confusion based on what is going on back home. The war won't automatically stop on the east front. I doubt that any of the men behind the lines in Russia would be killing each other either. They know what waits for them if the Russians come knocking.

However, there is very likely to be street battles as Himmler, Borman, and Göring fight for supremacy. Himmler is kind of screwed because all of his strength is at the front and the Gestapo and SS camp guards are really not fighters. The Heer is really the force at home, despite trouble likely to be caused by die-hard Nazis. While it may affect operations in Italy, as there is a lot of political and policy that gets disrupted by unclear leadership, the East is going to stay somewhat the same.

Now the only thing that the Germans 'might' get if they negotiate a complete surrender is territorial integrity. If they offer occupation and immediate succession of hostilities, the Americans and Brits might be willing to guarantee ethnic German areas, minus Austria, are retained, but for the forseeable future, occupation is coming.

The interesting questions for TTL are really going to be the post war situation. Germany very well may not accept guilt if they successfully eliminate the Nazis themselves. The Holocaust in its full sense will not have happened with millions more people alive. Depending on when surrender happens, the peace might even be a bit more lenient with less destruction and loss of life all around. But so much depends on specific situations that we won't know for sure unless we write multiple scenarios, or just decide to chose the most interesting ones.
 
To "save" Germany from occupation you need to do something before Hitler Declares war on the USA.

1941 before Attack on Soviet Union; New Government forms and attempts some type of deal. Very very small chance UK Goes along with it. Germany will not attack soviets and of course isn't going to declare war on USA.

1941 After attack on Soviet Union; New Government forms and attempts some type of deal. Neither UK or USSR is going to make a seperate peace at this point. Germans will fight the campaign better but I have my doubts about any ideas of them being able to do a big turn around on the Eastern Peoples. The army was very brutal because of Hitler's Commissar Order. So civilians are going to be upset just not as upset. This will help but I don't see millions of Ukrainians helping the Germans.

1940 If its after fall of the west god knows what happens to be honest. As Hitler was the one viewed very poorly in particular. Its possible that a deal could be struck.

If its before fall of the west timing is everything. Possible the Germans attack but not with Ardennes plan and a stalemate results. Possible the Germans don't attack at all but attempt to work something out...

1939 After start of war is much like 1940.

Michael
 
Most of it works, but to think that all of a sudden the Heer and SS with start killing each other at the front while the Russians are on the otherside of no-mans-land is ASB.

Well I wasn't thinking so much that the heer and ss start shooting at the drop of a hat. The scenario in my mind would be that word of the assasination gets out and some SS officers get the idea to comandeer authority from some heer officers. So they send some troops to go and arrest the officers in question, but things don't go exactly to plan and a shooting incident ensues, things escalate from there and you get fighting between Heer and SS forces along the Eastern front. Now I wouldn't go so far as to see large numbers of each side massacring each other in stead of fighting the Russians, but I think there would be a hand full of pockets of fighting here and there, not enough to destroy the German army in the east but enough to seriously hamper any kind of cohesive strategy.
 

Deleted member 1487

Well I wasn't thinking so much that the heer and ss start shooting at the drop of a hat. The scenario in my mind would be that word of the assasination gets out and some SS officers get the idea to comandeer authority from some heer officers. So they send some troops to go and arrest the officers in question, but things don't go exactly to plan and a shooting incident ensues, things escalate from there and you get fighting between Heer and SS forces along the Eastern front. Now I wouldn't go so far as to see large numbers of each side massacring each other in stead of fighting the Russians, but I think there would be a hand full of pockets of fighting here and there, not enough to destroy the German army in the east but enough to seriously hamper any kind of cohesive strategy.


I still doubt it, unless it is the real freaks in Totenkopf. The command links between the two were pretty tight at the front with men like Manstein repeatedly commending them for their efforts. Also, remember that there are only really a few divisions, at most a couple of corps at the front in 1943. I believe at Kursk for example only 3-4 divisions were the representation of the SS at the front. There were a number of others behind the lines, but only 1-200,000 men, versus 4-5 million for the Wehrmacht. The SS also drew supply from the Wehrmacht, as they had no supply elements in their organization. So even if the entire SS decided to start fighting the rest of the Wehrmacht, which is virtually impossible, as men like Felix Steiner and Sepp Dietrich were hardnosed realists that had no problem telling Hitler off especially towards the end of the war (Sepp, the leader of Hitler's bodyguard division was aware of the plot to kill Hitler and agreed to it), they would be wiped out no problem, as they would be out of ammo in a couple of days or just plan squashed under numbers. Not really enough to disrupt the lines enough for the Soviets to take advantage.

Really, the only effect would be that Kursk gets called off completely, or just happens on time, which, if it does, buys the Germans a reprieve on the Eastern front for 6 months, as in May much of the defenses that the Soviets had built up OTL did not yet exist.
 
1941 before Attack on Soviet Union; New Government forms and attempts some type of deal. Very very small chance UK Goes along with it. Germany will not attack soviets and of course isn't going to declare war on USA.
The UK, it's a lose-lose situation : the Reich cannot knock it out of the war in 1941, and neither can the UK defeat German domination over the continent. If the British were defeated in Egypt and/or lost Gibraltar before Barbarossa, then the European Axis might simply let the UK alone, maybe seeking peace, maybe not. Provided the UK doesn't win over new allies, WW2 would then simmer down to an undefined armistice, a bit like the situation between the two Koreas.

1941 After attack on Soviet Union; New Government forms and attempts some type of deal. Neither UK or USSR is going to make a seperate peace at this point. Germans will fight the campaign better but I have my doubts about any ideas of them being able to do a big turn around on the Eastern Peoples. The army was very brutal because of Hitler's Commissar Order. So civilians are going to be upset just not as upset. This will help but I don't see millions of Ukrainians helping the Germans.
I think there's a reasonable chance of Soviet Russia accepting a separate peace after Barbarossa, but before the winter of 1941 sets in. There were the feelers sent through the Bulgarian embassy, Stalin's depression for a few days when confronted to the vast losses in men, matériel and territory during the summer and fall.
 

Eurofed

Banned
However, there is very likely to be street battles as Himmler, Borman, and Göring fight for supremacy.

I find a scenario where Hitler is assassinated, but Himmler, Borman, and Goring all escape arrest or assassination rather unplausible. One of them, yes, by sheer chance. But the demise of Adolf shall free the Heer at large to make a bid for power, and the vast major of the officers )and the peopel at alrge) would rather close ranks behind a junta of their own peers than swear allegiance to another Nazi corrupt and murderous fat cat. As you point out, Himmler is the only one with a good fighting force, but it is all at the front, and so his ability to mount a countercoup exisst but it is limited, besides the rebels know he's the only dangerous one besides Hitler and program to kill him as second top priority. No other Nazi hierarch has control a private army or enough prestige in the Heer or the people to trigger armed reistance against an Heer that has got much more prestige than him. Borman is a sycophant who got all his power within the Nazi hierarchy from the personal favor of Hitler, the Nazi themselves despised him. Goering, yeah, he once had the respect of the Army and the people in 1938-39, but he has fallen low. I see all of them grasping for cyanide capsules when the Army closes on them not unleashing a civil war.

Now the only thing that the Germans 'might' get if they negotiate a complete surrender is territorial integrity. If they offer occupation and immediate succession of hostilities, the Americans and Brits might be willing to guarantee ethnic German areas, minus Austria, are retained, but for the forseeable future, occupation is coming.

I fully agree that if the Western Allies cannot be politically exhausted into compromise, the only realistic objective the junta can negotiate is conditional surrender with guarantees of national unity and territorial integrity, and lack of Soviet occupation. However, at the very least, this would perforce include Austria. Differently from the Corridor and Sudetenland, there is no third non-German country that may claim a decent title to Austrian territories, and carving Austria out again into a separate state would be the equivalent of doing it to Rhineland or Silesia, sheer spiteful denial of German national self-determination. Either the guarantees cover all of Germany or are a farce. What the Western Allies may do is to mandate a referendum to ascertain the will of the Austrian people, which German nationalists shall win hand down since the conditions that manufactured an Austrian national consciousness (will to escape Soviet occupation and guilt for Nazi crimes) shall not exist ITTL. Yeah, a referendum much like the one that occurred in Saar.


The interesting questions for TTL are really going to be the post war situation. Germany very well may not accept guilt if they successfully eliminate the Nazis themselves. The Holocaust in its full sense will not have happened with millions more people alive.

This is very true.
 
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