What if Hitler never makes the 1934 pact with Poland?

raharris1973

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This is a short article on the pact:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Polish_Non-Aggression_Pact

From the German POV, the pact wasn't popular, and Hitler doing it was sort of a "Nixon goes to China" maneuver that earlier politicians like Stresseman could not have done and probably would not have wanted to do.

WI Hitler decides that such a pact is more than he can swallow, just too demotivating to his supporters in the Reichswher and in right-wing German politics.

He's not planning on attacking or even escalating tensions with Poland in the year 1934 mind you , but he has no desire to be seen renouncing any claims that Weimar politicians like Streseman, Bruning and Hindenburg hadn't been willing to renounce.

How do things go from there?

There is an ongoing German-Polish customs war.

Does lack of a German-Polish pact lead to a Polish invasion of Germany in '34? I highly doubt it, but go for it if you want to make a case for it.

Preventive war or no preventive war, how is Polish (and other European) foreign policy effected over the next five years.

Would the Anglo-German naval pact still be negotiated on schedule?

Was or was not the German-Polish pact a "sedative" for countries like Britain and France that made a difference in their evaluation of Hitler's bottom-line in the middle 1930s? I wonder if it was a sedative allaying European fears temporarily, because the Polish corridor had been thought of since the end of WWI as the most likely flashpoint of Germany's next war, and here was Hitler in 1934 publicly saying he wasn't going to fight about it.
 
Poland and USSR had signed an agreement earlier, Germany would not want to be in position of Polish-Soviet relations improving while Polish-German relations stagnated or worse?
 
It may have had a twist effect. The Wallies might have been more sympathetic for German annexation of Danzig (as this would absorb German attention instead of the Sudetanland.) The result probabaly is that by 1938-39, when Germany annexed Austria and remilitarized the Rhineland, the whole dispute with Poland would blow up into war, which the Germans would win and likely take the whole of Poland after six months.

After this, the whole political calculus changes. For one, Czeckoslovakia is still a country. No chance they give up anything without a fight and though they are a tough nut, surrounded by all sides they would lose any war with Germany within a month. There's still the issue with Russia, which certainly would not be signing any deals with Germany at their border. This might bring pretty much Russia into a deal with the Wallies, and Czeckoslovakia/Finland/Romania all remain French allies.

The result s whereever Hitler turns next he literally has the whole world against him. It is possible that the conquering of Poland, without a wider war, might have been enough for him. By the mid 40s, Germany likely becomes friendly with the West as a stalwart against Communism.
 
I don't think Germany could escape the large scale war if they attacked Poland. While Germany may be able to get Poland to back off regarding the Danzig, probably with the use of international conference a'la Munich, it's pretty obvious that Hitler won't be satisfied with that.
 
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