What if Hitler is assassinated on November 8th 1939?

[raharris1973]

It is pertinent to note that the prospect of attacking France disconcerted many Wehrmacht generals.

But won’t the Germans have to attack since the Allies within nine months, because they are blockading them and building up and insisting on Germany giving up everything it's gained from others under Hitler?


Why couldn’t the Germans eventually use the Manstein plan without Hitler’s intervention? Might tabletop wargames and so forth over the winter and spring show it to be a better bet?


Meanwhile, what happens in Norway? Mining? Royal Marine landings?

 

[Johnrankins]

The problem is, with that many top people taken out at once, the government is going to be in chaos for at least a month or two. So either everything is delayed a month or two or they go into battle in a confused state.

 

[raharris1973]

The problem is, with that many top people taken out at once, the government is going to be in chaos for at least a month or two. So either everything is delayed a month or two or they go into battle in a confused state.

Certainly, but it is not like they are going to go into battle on the western front on January 8th, 1940 anyway! May 10, comes after considerable further passage of time. And they could start later in the season in 1940.

Sitting through the whole year of 1940, being diplomatically blackballed and blockaded, without doing anything new on the offensive doesn't seem characteristic of Germany.
And it's not like the surviving German military leadership are hopeless dummies, who will go ahead with a bad plan in desperation and deliberately do it bad just to lose faster.

 

[Johnrankins]

Certainly, but it is not like they are going to go into battle on the western front on January 8th, 1940 anyway! May 10, comes after considerable further passage of time. And they could start later in the season in 1940.

Sitting through the whole year of 1940, being diplomatically blackballed and blockaded, without doing anything new on the offensive doesn't seem characteristic of Germany.
And it's not like the surviving German military leadership are hopeless dummies, who will go ahead with a bad plan in desperation and deliberately do it bad just to lose faster.

No, but they will probably start in June or July, not May. It is too soon for everything to go without a hitch as last-minute preparations must be made. It is too late for them to recover from it in time. Even one or two months is a godsend for the French. A month or two more of production would be very helpful. Even more helpful is a another month or two of practice for pilots of new aircraft.

 

[raharris1973]

No, but they will probably start in June or July, not May. It is too soon for everything to go without a hitch as last-minute preparations must be made. It is too late for them to recover from it in time. Even one or two months is a godsend for the French. A month or two more of production would be very helpful. Even more helpful is a another month or two of practice for pilots of new aircraft.

Oh the French successfully resisting under the alternate circumstances brought on by this PoD is certainly a plausible outcome.

 

[Johnrankins]

Oh the French successfully resisting under the alternate circumstances brought on by this PoD is certainly a plausible outcome.

That is all I was saying, that the Germans will have a considerably harder time. That many people removed at once is going to take a toll and the price has to be paid.

 

[Wendell]

I am sure Goering will do that, but there is more than just Hitler to replace. Himmler, Heydrich, and Goebels are also quite likely among others. It would be one hell of a shake and it will take time. Time isn't on his side.

Goebbels is loyal first to himself, and has been flexible in the past, having been one early on to put more weight than most of the rest of the NSDAP in the second word of the party's name. Heydrich as an intelligence officer likelier than not backs the Reichsmarschal for the moment. The real issue here is possibly Himmler and the SS, and even that's not necessarily insurmountable at this stage.

 

[Johnrankins]

Goebbels is loyal first to himself, and has been flexible in the past, having been one early on to put more weight than most of the rest of the NSDAP in the second word of the party's name. Heydrich as an intelligence officer likelier than not backs the Reichsmarschal for the moment. The real issue here is possibly Himmler and the SS, and even that's not necessarily insurmountable at this stage.

I didn't say it is insurmountable but that it will take time. You can't lose that many people and not have it affect the government and military. Time is not on Germany's side and saying they will be a month or two behind OTL is far from unreasonable under the circumstances. That means they invade France in June or July not May.

My point about Goebels etc. are that they are probably dead too. The bomb killed quite a few people and they are all likely to be physically close to Hitler. You can't replace all them overnight.

 

[andy1979]

If Hitler is assassinated then the course of the war changes especially as the members of the top hierarchy of the Nazi Party actually don't like one another.

 

[Alan]

Goring had the force of personality and the charisma to maintain his power,something nobody else in the Nazi leadership had. Even tt the Nuremberg Trials, the other Nazis deferred to him and commentators spoke of the dominance he exerted over most of his co-defendants.

The Holocaust would not have happened, since only Hitler had the level of vitriol to carry anti-semitism to such an extremity, but the Jews would certainly have still had an unpleasant time.

Goring was opposed to Operation Barbarossa, so it is possible there may have been more alignment with the Soviet Union, or at least a benign neutrality. Goring was quite indolent, so would have been quite happy to leave the conduct of land operations in the hands of the professionals. This may have had a detrimental effect on the attack in France, since it was Hitler who backed Manstein's plan, and as a consequence the Western Front may have degenerated into stalemate or at least a more costly and protracted campaign. Goring, however, would have been satisfied with territorial gains to date, and may have been prepared to restore a rump Polish state in exchange for peace. Maybe the Phoney War would have been indefinitely extended, resulting in a peace through Goring being prepared to reach such a compromise, and more generally through inertia. In the long run. as the inherent contradictions and absurdities of Nazi doctrines became apparent, Germany would probably have reverted back to something like the Kaiserreich.