What if Hitler is assassinated on November 8th 1939?

There is no way this leads to peace, or a quick conclusion to the war. No holocaust certainly, and Goering may listen to Mainstien and go with his plan. Or not. But there will be no negotiated peace, as the war was massively popular. The Western Allies on the other hand deteriorate with the longer the war takes. Their leaders (Gamelin namly) were cowards, their French men had no discipline, and didn't want to be there. If this happens, I see the war going into a stalemate until France falls, then a stalemate that ends the war.
 
I think this is far more difficult than people here think. The entire Nazi government would have been beheaded. It wouldn't be just Hitler but a lot of the top brass, probably including Himmler, Goebels and possibly Heydrich. You can't lose that many top people and not at least partially paralyze the government for a few days. The Germans would lose weeks, if not months just straightening everything out. The Germans just took a big morale hit and the Allies just got a big boost in morale.
 

BooNZ

Banned
It's called bluffing. You don't have to actually be able to do what you say you're going to do, just make the other fella believe you can.
The Germans have an enthusiastic dance partner in the east and the Allies have just sat on the sidelines and watched Poland be gutted - I'm not sure how convincing an Allied bluff would be...

Diplomacy of the period was all-over-the-place, so anything is possible, although I believe Czechoslovakia was a done deal and would be off the table. The new German leadership would likely be willing to give up its part of rump Poland for peace, if it retained Danzig and a corridor of sorts. The new German leadership might even throw in the liberation of eastern Poland and a crusade against the Soviet Union as part of this deal. Alternatively, the new German leadership might pursue an unholy alliance or merely implode.
 
Himmler and Heydrich were in the room and likely would be killed as they most likely would be close to Hitler. The bomb killed a lot of people OTL.
Hopefully it would kill Heydrick but spare Himmler.
Anyone in position to replace Himmler would have been able to do a better job than he did. Heydrich was irreplaceable. Goobles was also a irreplaceable, he was the best PR man and propagandists the world has ever seen. He was also the gold-medal son of a bitch of the 20th century, the other Nazis didn't even like him.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
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But there will be no negotiated peace, as the war was massively popular.
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Hmmm, ... and where do you have derived this your personal opinion from ?

Actually available contemporary source of the SD state quite a different attitude of the german populace regarding the war. ... much to the dissapontment of Hitler.
On the outbreak, aka invasion of Poland the populace agreed to a large extend that this was actually necessary and their 'right'. But ... they didn't actually 'flock' to the colors and with the british and french DoW they VERY quickly settled to a kind of a rather freightened, silent, stoical preparing for enduring what will/might come.
Even after Poland was beaten - quite expected - there was no 'August'-experience as 1914.
... far from it.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
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Fun fact about Elser's assassination attempt, if it achieves complete success, a good chunk of the Nazi elite may be dead or injured. Göring would have lived since he was not in Munich at the time. However, Bormann, Goebbels, Himmler, Ribbentrop, Hess, Frick, Todt, Ley and a number of others were all present when Hitler gave his speech in Bürgerbräukeller.
'Fun fact' ...
However.
It would be interesting to know who would have survived and would be still ... available for Göring to set up a goverment against the very likely very quickly trying to seize power militaries.
... if not in the name of 'State Emergency' and resurrecting their plans of spring 1938 and August 1939 ('Oster-conspiracy' or however you wanna name it).
 
NoMommsen is correct regarding the lack of enthusiasm for the war at this stage. Hitler's personality peaked after the fall of France, but when the war began and the western powers sent their declaration of war, people did not rush to the flag with enthusiasm. They went about their duties, but nonetheless.

It is pertinent to note that the prospect of attacking France disconcerted many Wehrmacht generals. Even a hardline Hitler loyalist like Reichenau, who would be enthusiastic about war crimes during Operation Barbarossa, was unhappy about it and may have even leaked German invasion plans to the Dutch. It's quite possible that Führer Göring, unsure of his position, goes along with a more conservative operational plan devised by the OKH instead of Manstein's, if he attempts an invasion, though he will doubtlessly try to get a negotiated settlement first to get out of a war he was not happy about. How that works out is another question.

At this stage Göring's prestige has not been damaged by the Battle of Britain, Stalingrad and so on yet, though his role in the Blomberg-Fritsch crisis has not been forgotten by the army. I think it's likely he'd be able to become Führer/president/chancellor after the bomb goes off...but whether he stays it is another question. He would not be able to count on the obedience of the army or the party the way Hitler could.

Assumig the bomb achieves maximum impact, then a good chunk of the Nazi party elite has been killed or incapacitated (of course, this is up to whoever writes a timeline). This leaves largely second string figures, which is convenient for Göring because they cannot mount an effective challenge to his succession, but also leaves him more vulnerable to any possible coup if the army goes for it. We should take care not to treat the Heer as a monolith that was just waiting to pounce though. Halder conspired, but then got cold feet and Brauchitsch was the exact opposite of decisive. Oster and his buddies wanted to coup and eliminate Hitler during the Sudeten crisis, but they were a particularly radical group.
 
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Goering ends the war by Christmas with the 1914 borders in the East and the areas ceded to Belgium at Versailles returned. The Nuremburg laws remain in place for sometime, but no Final Solution gets carried out. Also, there is a timeline on this board with this as a POD.
 
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NoMommsen

Donor
... Also, there is a timeline on this board with this as a POD.
Have a link ?

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Göring would have lived since he was not in Munich at the time. However, Bormann, Goebbels, Himmler, Ribbentrop, Hess, Frick, Todt, Ley and a number of others were all present when Hitler gave his speech in Bürgerbräukeller.
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Assumig the bomb achieves maximum impact, then a good chunk of the Nazi party elite has been killed or incapacitated (of course, this is up to whoever writes a timeline).
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Hmmm, anywhere a ... 'ist' who actually was present that day ?
 
Hmmm, anywhere a ... 'ist' who actually was present that day ?

German language article, but if you scroll down to the section titled 'Welche prominenten Nazis wären zusammen mit Hitler umgekommmen', there's a list of Nazi bigwigs and functionaries etc. Seems to be derived from what was said in 'Der Völkischer Beobachter', a book written by German historian Peter Hoffmann and some other sources:

http://www.mythoselser.de/elser-folgen1.htm

https://books.google.de/books?id=-f..._summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q=Goebbels&f=false

This Elser biography mentions Himmler, Goebbels, Hess, Frick, Bormann, Ley, Max Amann (head of the Reich Media Chamber) and Rosenberg.
 
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If there is no quick peace, then a German invasion of France is more or less inevitable, isn’t it? The Germans know they can’t sit on their asses forever, otherwise the Entente simply becomes too strong. However, it seems as if Manstein’s OTL invasion plan only went through thanks to Hitler’s intervention, and that the other generals would have preferred some kind of Schliefenplan 2.0, correct?

How would a Schliefenplan-style invasion with modern tanks and aircraft look like? Could it have been as successful as the OTL invasion, or would it have become bogged down in Belgium/northern France like during WW1?
 
If the war goes on, then invading the Netherlands is probably inevitable. The big difference in the West is that the attempt to evacuate Dunkirk won't go anywhere near as well.
 
If the war goes on, then invading the Netherlands is probably inevitable. The big difference in the West is that the attempt to evacuate Dunkirk won't go anywhere near as well.

On the contrary, I would foresee big hiccups. This is about the worst possible time for it to happen for Germany. Its civilian leadership, which the army depends on for logistical support as they produce the supplies, has just been hit for a loop. It is too soon for everything to go without a hitch as last-minute preparations must be made. It is too late for them to recover from it in time. The German government will be in flux for weeks or months as a lot of its top people are now dead.
 
On the contrary, I would foresee big hiccups. This is about the worst possible time for it to happen for Germany. Its civilian leadership, which the army depends on for logistical support as they produce the supplies, has just been hit for a loop. It is too soon for everything to go without a hitch as last-minute preparations must be made. It is too late for them to recover from it in time. The German government will be in flux for weeks or months as a lot of its top people are now dead.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and Nazis are well suited to knife in the back who stands in the way. the Reich is likely Goering's by the month's end.
 
Nature abhors a vacuum, and Nazis are well suited to knife in the back who stands in the way. the Reich is likely Goering's by the month's end.

I am sure Goering will do that, but there is more than just Hitler to replace. Himmler, Heydrich, and Goebels are also quite likely among others. It would be one hell of a shake and it will take time. Time isn't on his side.
 
my story, "Gorings Reich" almost used this as the trigger event, and version 2, which I was working on (in outline form and considerable additional research)before real life got entirely too hard for a while

There is no reason for Germany to give up gains achieved so far, particularly with the Soviet treaty already in effect. Allied pressure just hardens the German position. So most likely, there will be a German offensive in the West in the Spring of 1940. I am not convinced that Norway or for that matter Mansteins plan are set in stone yet however, but there is still the possibility of the Mechelen Incident (in January 1940) which does not necessarily get removed by small flying butterflies, although its not impossible either.

Complicated situation, but I think we still have a war. The Final Solution was decided at Wannassee in December 1941, and Goring supported that. Whether he still would is open to question. But he isn't lilely to change the Nuremburg laws either.
 
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BigBlueBox

Banned
Maybe the new Führer would be willing to use the "undesirables" as cannon fodder, especially in a war with the USSR.
Labor camps are far more practical. Trying to use “undesirables” on the battlefield would require Soviet-style blocking detachments, and most would surrender at the first opportunity anyways.
 
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