What If Hitler Hadn't Invaded Russia?

[Asharella]

I expect someone has done a thread like this. I'm hoping somebody can link to me it or them. If there isn't a thread like this, we could discuss it here. The questions that occur to me are:

1) What would have to change for Hitler not to invade Russia?

2) What would Hitler do instead?

3) How would this effect the outcome of the war?

4) How would this effect the Soviet Union?

5) What would the world be like now?

 

[jmc247]

I expect someone has done a thread like this. I'm hoping somebody can link to me it or them. If there isn't a thread like this, we could discuss it here. The questions that occur to me are:

1) What would have to change for Hitler not to invade Russia?

2) What would Hitler do instead?

3) How would this effect the outcome of the war?

4) How would this effect the Soviet Union?

5) What would the world be like now?

By 1943 the USSR would have the military power to steamroll over Western Poland and Germany if they didn't attack.

Your POD would honestly require leadership other then Hitler in charge because he was set on war with the USSR once the battle with France was won though I will disagree with some posters who will soon arive and say it had to be in 1941. I think he could have agreed to put it off a year or two with a few slight changes to the timeline though lets just say Germany would do far worse then OTL in such a situation.

Could you have Hitler die and be replaced with fat man who decides not to invade the USSR. Sure.

In that case though he will have to achieve peace with the UK before the U.S. enters the war against Germany or in 1944 the Red Army attacks while the U.S. and UK are fighting Germany for say control of Italy. Germany not attacking the USSR leaves the USSR in far better military shape by 1944 then OTL and lets just say the Cold War goes worse for the Western Allies and may go hot in 1945-46. The USSR also will have nukes far sooner then OTL.

 

[rule_them_all]

Hello. There are indeed threads about this, but, let's forget about that.

The problem with Hitler not invading Russia is that you have to change the core philosophy of Nazism, which was to create a large, unpopulated space to the East, which would cleanse the world of "undesirables"(ie Slavs) as well as clearing up space for the expansion of the Aryan people. Because Bolshevism was also despised by the Nazis, annihilating the Soviet Union made even more sense(they were after all now a nation of undesirables with an immoral political system)
The easiest way to bypass this is to have no Hitler, that is, to have someone that would rise to power in the same conditions as Hitler, but who did not drink his own Kool-Aid as Hitler did, or perhaps sported a different philosophy(that stated that, for whatever reason, the British must be destroyed first, or something like that- Maybe a revanchist attitude, IDK)
A socialist Germany is also an easy way to have this, though it would probably be attacked as soon as it was created.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Hello. There are indeed threads about this, but, let's forget about that.

The problem with Hitler not invading Russia is that you have to change the core philosophy of Nazism, which was to create a large, unpopulated space to the East, which would cleanse the world of "undesirables"(ie Slavs) as well as clearing up space for the expansion of the Aryan people. Because Bolshevism was also despised by the Nazis, annihilating the Soviet Union made even more sense(they were after all now a nation of undesirables with an immoral political system)
The easiest way to bypass this is to have no Hitler, that is, to have someone that would rise to power in the same conditions as Hitler, but who did not drink his own Kool-Aid as Hitler did, or perhaps sported a different philosophy(that stated that, for whatever reason, the British must be destroyed first, or something like that- Maybe a revanchist attitude, IDK)
A socialist Germany is also an easy way to have this, though it would probably be attacked as soon as it was created.

Would having Georg Strasser as leader of the NSDAP work too, because I'm not sure if he had the same kind of insane ideas that Hitler did.

 

[Jason222]

UK likely held out since only surviving USA aid anyway taken all the force Nazi Germany could give them. USA face high loses in he fight against Nazi Germany try over power them since one front war.

 

[jmc247]

UK likely held out since only surviving USA aid anyway taken all the force Nazi Germany could give them. USA face high loses in he fight against Nazi Germany try over power them since one front war.

Assuming Germany and the USSR haven't gone to war by 1944 (which is an unlikely assumption, but lets say assuming it) there would be no D-Day in 1944. Likely the attack on Italy would happen in 1944 and the attack on France therefore would be in the Summer of 1945. By that stage FDR is dead and the new Prez has been offered a new super bomb which would wipe out German cities and end the war.

After one or two cities go up in fire the Soviet's will attack and U.S. forces will start landing in France perhaps using a nuke as a battlefield weapon behind the beach.

 

[Asharella]

Well, one of the things I'm wondering is if it possible for Hitler to have not decided on Barbarossa other than a POD early on that makes him not the same person at all yet still somehow ends up Fuhrer or ASB intervening and showing him the future. Is there anything that might have changed his mind? Or are we absolutely certain that Hitler would have acted on his obsession?

 

[PoeFacedKilla]

Well, one of the things I'm wondering is if it possible for Hitler to have not decided on Barbarossa other than a POD early on that makes him not the same person at all yet still somehow ends up Fuhrer or ASB intervening and showing him the future. Is there anything that might have changed his mind? Or are we absolutely certain that Hitler would have acted on his obsession?

their is no changing hitler, he wants all russians dead and their land populated with Germanic peoples (danes,norvegians,dutch,swedes,germans,ect);
he wants to have a country larger than the US and wants to weaken russia.

You would need a whole different elite for this to happen.

 

[Asharella]

I agree that Hitler is going to have that desire, unless we change him basically into a different person.

But is it possible that something would cause him to decide that working to get that desire via a military invasion of Russia might not be the best course of action? He'd still want it, but decide it's better to do something else. Maybe like defeat the British first and let his scientists create the futuristic weapons they'd promised him like missiles, jets and atomic bombs before he faces the Soviets? Is there anything that could have made him strategize that way?

 

[Cook]

Well, one of the things I'm wondering is if it possible for Hitler to have not decided on Barbarossa...

Certainly. Hitler decided in 1940 that the reason Britain wasn’t willing to come to terms was because they were holding out in the hope that Russia would enter the war against Germany and this would save Britain. He therefore decided on a quick war to smash Germany, so quick that the British wouldn’t have time to take advantage of Germany fighting on two fronts; Russia would be defeated and then the British would have to accept that they had no hope of winning and would accept peace negotiations. On 31st July, 1940 Hitler told the commanders of the German armed forces that:

‘In the event that an invasion does not take place, our efforts must be directed to the elimination of all factors that let England hope for a change in the situation. Britain’s hope lies in Russia and the United States. If Russia drops out of the picture, America too is lost for Britain, because the elimination of Russia would greatly increase Japan’s power in the Far East… Decision: Russia’s destruction must therefore be made part of this struggle…’

It was a misguided opinion; the British had no hopes for a breakdown in Nazi-Soviet affairs and no confidence in Soviet military capabilities even if they did enter the war, they were pinning all their hopes on their ‘trans-Atlantic cousins’. Had he appreciated the British outlook more he would have been more willing to give a higher priority to the air and sea forces needed to strangle Britain’s Atlantic lifeline before the Americans showed greater willingness to enter the war and would have postponed an Attack on Stalin’s empire until after the British empire had been brought to heal, just as had been his thinking prior to the war breaking out.

 

[Shaby]

There is also one more factor to have in mind. Not attacking Soviets in 1941 means Germany has to conjure 500 million Reichsmark worth of goods, industrial machines and weapons to deliver to them (or gold). Continuing the economic cooperation would make Germany dependent on Soviet Union, a relationship that would become increasingly difficult to challenge as time goes by. Eventually Stalin would be in position to just cut them off and watch them get asphyxiated lacking raw materials and food.

Besides, Hitler must come with some alternative use of the 150+ divisions of Wehrmacht. And he can't disband them, either.

 

[Asharella]

Besides, Hitler must come with some alternative use of the 150+ divisions of Wehrmacht. And he can't disband them, either.

There's the oil fields of the Middle East, blocked by the British in Egypt. In an ATL Hitler might decide to go ahead with Operation Felix attempting the taking of Gibraltar while forcing Franco into the war and also send more troops to help Rommel with the siege of Tobruk so they can advance into Egypt and secure the Suez.

 

[Shaby]

There's the oil fields of the Middle East, blocked by the British in Egypt. In an ATL Hitler might decide to go ahead with Operation Felix attempting the taking of Gibraltar while forcing Franco into the war and also send more troops to help Rommel with the siege of Tobruk so they can advance into Egypt and secure the Suez.

There is much more at stake than oil here. Check out German-Soviet Commercial agreement.

As for troops, either way, 150 divisions is waaay more than Germany needs and is capable to adequately deploy and support. Not much more troops could be sent to Africa, as available port capacity pretty much limits how many troops can actually be supplied. Even the divisions deployed to the theater could not at times be supplied with all necessities. Spain could be handled with 30 divisions tops.

The problem here is even if all those divisions could be adequately employed (or even disbanded, why not) what is to stop Soviets from rolling over? Not that it was or was not Stalin's intention, but can Hitler ever be sure it won't happen?

 

[Rich Rostrom]

...what is to stop Soviets from rolling over? Not that it was or was not Stalin's intention, but can Hitler ever be sure it won't happen?

The intrinsic inferiority and incompetence of Bolshevik untermenschen, which Hitler recognized from the first, and which was apparently confirmed in the Winter War.

Hitler was utterly confident about crushing the USSR in a swift campaign. "Kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will collapse."

Given that attitude, it's hardly implausible for Hitler to believe that Germany is no real danger from the USSR at that time.

As for a PoD: suppose that Sanjurjo, not Franco, was Caudillo of Spain. (The PoD is in 1936, and of course there would be butterflies, but bear with me.)

Sanjurjo was to be the leader of the rebellion, but died in a plane crash due to choosing to fly with a "daring aviator" in his small plane rather than the large twin-engine plane that was available - and taking a trunk full of dress uniforms with him.

I don't know much else about his personality, but that incident suggests that had he lived and been in charge in 1940, he would be very likely to rally to Hitler's side and join the Axis.

This commits Germany to additional campaigning in the west (siege of Gibraltar), air/sea combat around the Canaries. It might lead to Axis control of Morocco, and maybe more. Perhaps Petain and Laval take Vichy France into the Axis to avoid further Axis domination of France - i.e. better a willing and autonomous Axis state than continued jerking around by Hitler.

With French cooperation, the Axis can deploy a lot more force to North Africa.

With all this going on, Hitler is more likely to think he can force Britain to make peace, and doesn't need to take out the USSR first. The General Staff and even Goering would rather not fight a two front war.

What does Stalin do? His goal, as he told the Politburo in 1939, was to have Germany fighting the Western Allies as long as possible. But the next year showed some ugly surprises. The Winter War showed the Red Army was seriously defective, and the French campaign showed the Germans were far more dangerous than expected. The Western Allies have been stomped, and the USSR potentially faces the entire Wehrmacht.

It's like the exchange between Gandalf and Gimli in The Lord of the Rings, where Gimli wishes that Saruman and Sauron could fight each other. Gandalf answers "The winner would emerge stronger than either, and free from doubt." Basically Stalin has made Gimli's call, and gotten Gandalf's unwelcome result.

Stalin therefore will put off any confrontation with Germany for at least a year or two. That will give him time to consolidate and fortify his gains, and refit his army. The question then is does he dig in and wait for the Axis attack, or attempt a pre-emptive attack, and if so when?

Anothe question is how long Britain can hold out in these circumstances. Side issues include whether any additional French colonies join Free France. If West Africa (Dakar) follows Vichy orders into Axis service, Britain is seriously screwed and may break. If it flips, Britain has a decent position.

In the latter case, Stalin may decide to strike in 1942. Otherwise, I think he just digs in and waits.

 

[Snake Featherston]

This is inherently unworkablle. Nazism as an ideology requires an invasion of the USSR for the purposes of destroying Slavic civilization in Europe. If you alter all of this, you're not talking anything like OTL Germany, so its actions will be motivated by entirely different principle from those of OTL Germany.

 

[Michel Van]

1) What would have to change for Hitler not to invade Russia?
His death, or Stalin threat to use soviet atomic bomb...

2) What would Hitler do instead?
try Invade Great Britain with the Unspeakable seamammal operation and Total Fails

3) How would this effect the outcome of the war?
the Third Reich runs out on Oil, it needs for it's warmachine
or they get more faster bankrupt

4) How would this effect the Soviet Union?
wait and attack the the Third Reich runs dry on Oil
or deliver Oil and make them dependence on it

5) What would the world be like now?
The Third Reich lose the War faster ?