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Historically starting with the preparations for Barbarossa Hitler ordered mass expansion of the German army that actually continued during the Barbarossa invasion and throughout the rest of the war. Before Barbarossa the number of Panzer divisions were doubled to 20 and during Barbarossa an expansion to 30 was underway that meant existing divisions got virtually no replacement parts or whole AFVs. The same expansion in infantry divisions and various smaller units happened, even going so far as the Luftwaffe to start fielding infantry and armor divisions. This depleted existing divisions horribly and created a bunch of inexperienced units that were then throw into combat with the expectation that their latest equipment would offset that experience to disastrous results (see what happened to the Panzer Brigades in 1944 as an example).

So what if that over-expansion doesn't happen? By that I mean starting with Barbarossa replacements to existing units are favored before creating new units. Some new divisions are still formed, but only after all requests for replacements have been fulfilled with the existing divisions. So the Barbarossa invasion force is kept topped up and expansion heavily restricted. When the Luftwaffe is ordered to comb out personnel to serve in army roles Hitler does not let Goering build up infantry and panzer units and keeps the number of airborne divisions at 2. All that manpower and the latest equipment goes to existing divisions in the army. The Waffen-SS is limited to forming new divisions with foreign manpower and only gets to make 2 divisions into armored ones, though their motorized divisions are upgraded to mechanized units. How does that impact the war, as the German army is kept much smaller, but existing divisions are always kept up to strength when practical. There are less divisions to move around, but all existing divisions aren't short of manpower and equipment chronically. There are some expansion in number of army divisions and in the Waffen-SS, but that is heavily limited by the requirement to make sure the existing divisions are serviced first; when existing divisions are destroyed replacement ones are built from their survivors and allotment of replacements.
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