What if Henry VIII of England had died after falling from his horse in January 1536

for Elizabeth to regency to work and live through The Pilgrimage of Grace and claims by Mary or James V (or even Charles V) The Boleyns, the Duke of Suffolk, Cromwell, Archbishop Cranmer, and the Duke of Norfolk all need to work together, by 1536 Suffolk is set against The Boleyns as is Norfolk, Anne was fighting with Cromwell, Anne and her family want the top spot in a regency as will Cromwell, Suffolk and Norfolk, i forsee much infighting, though the Pilgrimage of Grace was about Cromwell in OTL, in TTL who knows what it will be about, but i think i'll bigger then OTL maybe James V will invade to take the hand of Mary (or if she's dead just take the crown with the Pope's blessing).

So the Regency of Elizabeth would probably be a disaster because all the leading players hated one another.

Mary, Reginald Pole, and James V are all contenders for the throne.

I think James V may have some trouble, since he wasn't English and is allied to the French. Those are two rather large counts against him using the Pilgrimage of Grace as a spring board for becoming King of England.

If Mary is arrested and imprisoned, I would nominate Reginald Pole making a bid for the throne, being smuggled into England and leading the Pilgrimage of Grace. He would, of course, be doing it save the Princess Mary. Pole is English, Catholic, and approved by both the Papacy and the Hapsburgs. In other words, a really excellent candidate for the English throne in the eyes of those who would see England return to the Church of Rome. I see Pole and Mary as sort of a package deal, because a successful Pilgrimage of Grace would put Pole and Mary on the throne of England, as a couple.

Mary and Reginald are going to be interesting, because if they don't produce children, then they will be left in a very interesting situation. FitzRoy may or may not be living, and may or may not have children. I think that under the conditions, he would not join the regency of Elizabeth immediately. He retires to his estates and waits out what happens. The events of 1536 develop, and he offers support to the Pilgrimage of Grace, seeing the self-immolation of the regency. If he lives, then his children could well be a childless Mary's heirs. He may be a bastard, but his male children are the direct-male descendants of Henry VIII.

James V and the Stewart line is the other option. He could be an option, but I don't think Mary would want a foreign king on the throne. James' OTL was hostile to England, and his death was during an invasion of England. Which is a trend in how Scottish kings tended to die- fighting ill-advised war for France against England.

So Elizabeth is removed from succession and kept confined somewhere. She is the object of various machinations by various people, all of whom intend to restore her regime and overthrow her sister. She won't be allowed to marry, since that could produce children who would continue to pose a threat to Mary's line's control of the throne. I think the best thing to happen for Elizabeth would be that she escape England before Mary's army- spirited away by the best of her father's servants, Cromwell. If anyone is going to be able to build the support for a Protestant Restoration in England, it will be him.

The Pole Dynasty restores the true religion and all that jazz. If Mary lives the same length as OTL, then she will rule for 22 years. England could see religious disorders when Mary first takes the throne, and possibly on through her reign. The strength of the Pole Dynasty is actually much reduced vis a vis the Tudors, because the dissolution of the monasteries, which in OTL did so much to tie the gentry to the Tudors, never occurs.
 
your idea of Reginald Pole is odd as Reginald Pole was a Cardinal at the time, and isn't the oldest of the Poles, his brother Henry Pole, 1st Baron Montagu is 8 years older and his mother Margaret Pole is alive and well in 1536 (they were all killed in 1539-1541 in OTL) any way the Poles never wanted the Crown in OTL, and were killed because Reginald Pole was the leading opponent of Henry's divorce from Catherine of Aragon, that linked with Henry's paranoia that every one and their mother was after his Crown, a paranoia few in his government shared
 
your idea of Reginald Pole is odd as Reginald Pole was a Cardinal at the time, and isn't the oldest of the Poles, his brother Henry Pole, 1st Baron Montagu is 8 years older and his mother Margaret Pole is alive and well in 1536 (they were all killed in 1539-1541 in OTL) any way the Poles never wanted the Crown in OTL, and were killed because Reginald Pole was the leading opponent of Henry's divorce from Catherine of Aragon, that linked with Henry's paranoia that every one and their mother was after his Crown, a paranoia few in his government shared

Actually, it seems that even if Reginald was a member of the clergy (he only became Cardinal in December 1536) apparently he was really considered by the Imperial Ambassador in England, Eustace Chapuys, as a possible husband to Mary before. I found this reference here, even if only in footnotes:
http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.aspx?compid=87964
It's from a collection of State Papers of Spain in 1536. In the footnote 2 I've found this reference:

"After that Chapuys was consulted, and asked whether he (Pole) was as highly connected in England as reported, and whether he would or would not make a fit husband for princess Mary. Chapuys' affirmative answer, dated the 8th of November, but referring to a preceding report of his "more than a year ago," is published at full in part i., p. 323."

However, the most interesting of these letters is that they show who Charles V wanted as the husband of Mary. Here, from the letter of June 20th 1536 from the Emperor to Don Diego De Mendoça and Chapuys:

"Whereas the Emperor's wish has always been to preserve the old friendship, alliances, treaties, confederations, and good understanding between himself and his very dear and much beloved brother, Henry king of England and France, lord of Ireland, &c., whereas he is now more desirous than ever of removing any obstacles that may stand in the way of the confirmation of the said friendship and alliance, and of rendering it closer and more binding, as well as indissoluble, by means of a marriage between our cousin the Princess Mary and his brother-in-law, the Infante of Portugal, Dom Luiz, he appoints his faithful and beloved councillors D. Diego de Mendoza and Messire Eustace Chapuys, Doctor-es-droits, to whom he gives full powers to treat about the said alliance and marriage."

From June 21st 1536, instructions to Don Diego de Mendoça:
"Is to bring about a marriage between Dom Luiz, Infante of Portugal, and princess Mary of England.—Asti, 21 June 1536."

And here from the letter of the Emperor to Chapuys in June 30th:

"With regard to the marriage of the Infante of Portugal [Dom Luiz] and our cousin, the Princess (Mary), We should be extremely glad if it could be brought about. It would be a very suitable match for both parties, besides which, it might possibly be the means of bringing back the King to the obedience of the Church. True, if the marriage is to be made, it would be required that in the marriage settlements, if not before, the Princess should be declared legitimate heiress to the English throne in case of the King dying without male children;—a thing which, considering the manifestations lately made by the King himself, and the words which Cromwell has let out to you, appears to Us not unlikely."

So, it seems that in 1536 Charles V wanted Mary married to the brother of John III of Portugal, Luís, Duke of Beja and Prior of the Order of Saint John of Jerusalem. Interesting enough, IOTL Luís had only one bastard son, Anthony, who in 1580 was the defeated claimant to the throne of Portugal against Philip II. If ITTL he marries Mary as Charles V wished, the future king of England might have a claim to the kingdom of Portugal if the main line of the Aviz still go extinct. We could have an Anglo-Portuguese union ITTL.
 
How firmly entrenched would Protestantism have been at the time? If we're lucky, we might get Cromwell leading a Republic Revolution ahead of schedule (that's the same Cromwell, right? I admit ignorance of the period)
 
Originally posted by Minchandre
we might get Cromwell leading a Republic Revolution ahead of schedule (that's the same Cromwell right?)

Thomas Cromwell (C.1485-1540) and Oliver Cromwell (1599-1658) are two different people. However while Oliver was not directly descended from Thomas, he was related to him through Thomas's sister Katherine: http://www.olivercromwell.org/faqs1.htm .
 
Actually, it seems that even if Reginald was a member of the clergy (he only became Cardinal in December 1536) apparently he was really considered by the Imperial Ambassador in England, Eustace Chapuys, as a possible husband to Mary before.

cut excellent references.

So, it seems that in 1536 Charles V wanted Mary married to the brother of John III of Portugal, Luís, Duke of Beja and Prior of the Order of Saint John of Jerusalem. Interesting enough, IOTL Luís had only one bastard son, Anthony, who in 1580 was the defeated claimant to the throne of Portugal against Philip II. If ITTL he marries Mary as Charles V wished, the future king of England might have a claim to the kingdom of Portugal if the main line of the Aviz still go extinct. We could have an Anglo-Portuguese union ITTL.

So Pole was a Cardinal, and a person with a claim on the English throne. He had good family connections. With Henry VIII's death, I think that Reginald Pole would be a logical choice to be sent to England to lead the Pilgrimage of Grace/rebellion in Mary's favor. Reginald, as a clergyman and OTL Archbishop of Canterbury, would be a representative of the Pope's intention to keep England in communion with Rome (one of the major goals of OTL's Pilgrimage) and would be popular even if he weren't claiming the throne.

If Mary has escaped, then she can marry Luis, cementing the alliance with Charles V, and her, Luis and Pole can bring down the Boleyns and their Bastard Queen. The Boleyns, despite their religious views, can probably find aid and comfort in France, which won't like the English becoming so closely allied to Charles V. If (/when) they flee England, Francis I would be happy to host them, and possibly send Elizabeth back with an army (and maybe a French husband).

The Queen-over-the-Sea becomes the rallying point for future English Protestant opposition to the Aviz Dynasty, and Elizabeth, regardless of her actual status, will continue to be "Queen Elizabeth I" for the rest of her life. With this turn of events, England can experience War of the Roses II/Wars of Religion.
 
Is there any chance Mary would have married her cousin James V and unified the crowns? He would have been the perfect dynastic and political ally, the best positioned to enforce her title to the throne without making England some other power's bitch.

The Dauphin François (Francis III of Brittany) would have been a great choice too.
 
Margaret Douglas (later Countess of Lennox) is available should anything happen to Mary. In 1536 she was still unmarried and could have been hitched to Pole or some other.
 
True, however, I think its unlikely she would succeed whilst her elder brother is still alive.

I think the most plausible outcome of Henry VIII dieing in 1536 would be:

- Anne Boleyn or her father immediately named Regent; either for her unborn son or for her daughter Elizabeth, by English law Queen of England if Anne miscarries (as actually happened) or gives birth to another daughter. I think she can generally count on the support of her uncle Duke of Norfolk, Privy Council, et al. From what I recall, Anne only miscarried because of Henry's fall, and the foetus was male..but if Henry died, the joy of being totally in power and free from fear of being get rid off, might help her not miscarry.

- If the Lady Mary is imprisoned or placed in the Tower, then she will basically be like Elizabeth was in her R-L reign, closely watched, constantly tormented. If Lady Mary manages to escape, then I expect things to run as they did in real life during Jane Grey's brief reign; Mary setting up her standard, thousands flocking to it, London government panicking and things ending with her calmly taking the throne; Anne Boleyn executed or imprisoned or forced into a nunnery, and Elizabeth bastardised/disinherited.

- If Mary comes to power, she'll naturally look to Charles V for a Habsburg/Spaniard husband, even though the best match would probably be James V Stewart. If Elizabeth, Anne would probably look to France and try to arrnage a French marriage for her daughter as a means of attempting to legitimate her rule in the eyes of Europe.
 
What's clear is that each side is going to claim legitimacy and have a lot of power sources vested in them -- Dr Waterhouse was right, this is going to get very bloody :eek:
 
I actually think there would be relatively few deaths. Either Mary escapes and support for Anne/Elizabeth melts away, like what happened post-Edward VI, or Mary is immediately put in a safe place by Anne and kept in place from then onwards.

If Mary comes to power, you might see a few Boleyns executed.
If Elizabeth comes to the throne, you'd have anyone who was foolish enough to plot to put Mary on the throne executed.
 
Just curious, since Elizabeth is so young at this point, if there's a quick win by Mary why wouldn't Elizabeth be raised Catholic nipping becoming a protestant rally point in the bud?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Good choices too. I thought about Frederick because Christian III would be the king when the regents would choose a husband for Elizabeth, and surely he would try to have his own issue married to a queen instead of his brothers. But it isn't impossible. However, Hans never married IOTL, you have any idea if there is a reason for this?

Honestly I have never heard why, but from what we know about him he was hard working, reform minded and intelligent, so it wasn't because he embraced a life of hedoism. So it can be everything from him being homosexual* to that he tried to keep the family strong, by not letting the duchies being split up more than necessary.

*I haven't found any mentioning of any bastards, which could indicate it, the Danish source often mention bastards.
 
The situation in the Court of the Boleyns between January and May 1536 was very different: if Henry die for that falling, Queen Anne is still pregnant and in power (and none was talking of her alleged adultery and lovers (who was false because that was only a needed excuse for freeing the King from his second marriage without losing his credibility), that was only after her miscarriage) and we know who that child is a boy... if Anne is pregnant the King can still have a legitimate male son to succeed him (and nobody in England would prefer an husband of Mary to an infant son of Henry from Anne as King). Anne was not popular, true, but she can still give the English a legitimate King and if she do not lose that child is sure who the majority of English people will accept the infant Henry IX as their King over Mary and if the Emperor try to invade England in name of Mary the most likely outcome will be a very huge loss of support for Mary (who likely can also lose her life)
 
The situation in the Court of the Boleyns between January and May 1536 was very different: if Henry die for that falling, Queen Anne is still pregnant and in power (and none was talking of her alleged adultery and lovers (who was false because that was only a needed excuse for freeing the King from his second marriage without losing his credibility), that was only after her miscarriage) and we know who that child is a boy... if Anne is pregnant the King can still have a legitimate male son to succeed him (and nobody in England would prefer an husband of Mary to an infant son of Henry from Anne as King). Anne was not popular, true, but she can still give the English a legitimate King and if she do not lose that child is sure who the majority of English people will accept the infant Henry IX as their King over Mary and if the Emperor try to invade England in name of Mary the most likely outcome will be a very huge loss of support for Mary (who likely can also lose her life)

I disagree. For one, Henry's jousting accident caused Anne to freak out so bad she miscarried, so with Henry dieing she would no doubt do so again. Also, it doesn't really matter if she had a boy or a girl (Elizabeth) in the eyes of most of the English, she was a usurping whore and her children were the King's bastards. Henry married her while Catherine of Aragon was still alive so in Catholic eyes Henry was in bigamy, it doesn;t matter that Catherine died early in 1536, whats done is done. So having a mistress crown her bastard son (in Catholic/English majority eyes) would mean nothing, like when Edward VI named Jane Grey his heir. They would rise for Mary, the rightful heiress. Furthermore, as I previously stated, most of England was still Catholic at the time, and Anne was a serious advocate of Protestantism, so again another strike against her and her family.

The most likely scenario is this: Henry dies, Anne miscarries and tries to place Elizabeth on the throne with herself as Regent. This odviously fails and the English people ,and probably quite a few of the old established nobles, rise up in favor of Mary. There's either a battle between the armies of the two Queens' or Anne's supporters dissolve in the face of the legitimate Heiress(again like they did in 1553). Anne and her family are arrested (and either kept under house arrest or tried and executed. Not sure which but I kind of lead toward execution, considering this would happen a few weeks after Catherine of Aragons death) Elizabeth is taken to me raised by a Catholic and Mary I's reign begins.
 
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