Okay, and hypothetically speaking. They bust through the Allied lines and, by some miracle, take Paris. Say France doesn't surrender because they're getting food aid, financial support, and now, hundreds of thousands of US soldiers, while, Germany is starving, on the brink of revolution, and their armies depleted. What then? France just up and surrenders? Because they lost Paris?
You underestimate the amount of hatred towards the Germans that had been unleashed. Even if the French drop, why would the Brith and US drop? Italy is still in the Game, and things were dire on the Austrian Front, being past the defeat of the Piave River campaign, and Diaz was not the idiot thst was his predecessor, wasting men on the Isonzo.
As I understand it, the German starting position was Poland, Courland and Lithuania...
The second battle of the Piave began well after the conclusion of Operation Michael. Accordingly, it may be butterflied or happen differently.
They didn't collapse until then, but the Second Battle of the Paive in June shattered their moral and all but completely wiped out their engineering corps. The fate of the Italian front really hinges on if 2nd Piave happens, and, if so, if it happens like OTL.
Paris at least. Why do you think it would require the entirety of France? Without Paris and the resources of the northeast of France the French couldn't continue to fight on. Since they also supplied the AEF with most of their heavy equipment in 1918 that means the US is SOL in terms of putting an army in the field even if they hold the Atlantic ports. Britain wouldn't be in a position to help for a while either, as the play laid out by Zabecki would collapse their logistics and force an abandonment of most of their heavy equipment and force a withdrawal from the continent for a time. If anything the Allies would be begging for terms. If not then if Germany can peel off at least the French by offering lenient terms (relatively) to get them to tell the Allies to get out or else. At that point German demands weren't huge in France other than some border strips and colonial demands, plus military restrictions (specifically border forts) and a free hand in Belgium and Eastern Europe.
Not in 1919 without French industry, weapons, and manpower. Considering the severe concern of the collapse of civilization in Europe and more communist uprisings I doubt they'd want to fight for years more at inestimable cost to maybe potentially win. Plus they would have likely overestimated German abilities to resist at that point given just how badly they'd have been beaten in 1918.
Do you happen to have a link for this series, I for the life of me can't find it.
October 1918 is not June 1917 as far as US Production goes. Italy(or France, FTM) does not need to supply them. US factories had been ramping up for the past year.
No, but October 1918 is not March 1918 nor is it 1919. The US factories were not set up to make airplanes, tanks, and artillery, so were still just being developed.
As you say Italy is not France. Italy was already utterly dependent on Germany and easily disarmed, plus a lot of their military ended up siding with Germany over the Allies anyway and continued fighting on their side to the bitter end.
Depends how liberal you want to be with the butterflies, Michael working is contingent on different thinking in the planning of the operation. Ludendorff thinking differently could well change the plan for the Austrian summer offensive, as he was given some input into it before it was finalized.
So the fact that the Italians outnumbered the Austrians (both locally in the areas of the advance and along the entire front) wasn't a factor? Removing the French divisions alone would be sufficient to shift the balance back to parity, adding German divisions shifts the advantage to the Austro-Germans. Just saying.
The plan failed at the strategic level not the tactical level. The Austrians wouldn't have inflicted 75% as many casualties as they endured (despite their completely infeasible plan) had Diaz's change in tactics actually invalidated the Austro-German infiltration tactics.
Splitting hairs again, the Kerensky offensive failed because the Russian army was already past its breaking point in moral and offensive capabilities. The Austro-Hungarian Army however was brought to its breaking point by the failure of the operation. 2nd Piave basically kicked them off their post-Caporetto high.
