What if Germany won the Second Battle of the Marne?

How does the War end?

  • Allied Victory

    Votes: 27 62.8%
  • Central Powers Victory

    Votes: 16 37.2%

  • Total voters
    43
It is almost unanimously accepted that if Germany won the First Battle of the Marne, World War I would eventually end with a Central Powers Victory. However, what if Germany won the Second Battle of the Marne? Would this change anything? Would the victory still go to the allies? Would this not help Germany at all since they were already very war weary? Would the allies surrender?
 
You still have hundreds of thousands of fresh Americans on the way, plus Germany was probably a year away from starvation thanks to the blockade and the Entente were on the verge of victory in the Middle East and Macedonia. Given these factors, the French government might be willing to continue the fight from Bordeaux. Most things still favor the Entente but Germany might have an actual hand in peace negotiations.
 
Germany lost its peace negotiation leverage when they went on the offensive.
They should've put the their eastern vets in the trenches and made the Entente fight for every sq kilometer. Outside of that, victory at the Second Marne would've meant nothing strategically.
 
Pretty much what Snowstalker said. The Allies knew that the losses they took in the Spring Offensive could be made good by British factories or American manpower.
 
Without question it results in a Central Powers victory. Without Paris, French war production collapses by 70% and it won't be until 1919 when the Americans become effective; the BEF alone cannot stand against the Germans at this point.
 
Without question it results in a Central Powers victory. Without Paris, French war production collapses by 70% and it won't be until 1919 when the Americans become effective; the BEF alone cannot stand against the Germans at this point.
But would the victory at Second Marne lead to the capture of Paris?
 
The goal was to do that, so we can assume so.
The overall objective was to cause the Allies to shift forces from Flanders to the Chamin des Dames, thus opening up the opportunity for the Germans to launch their projected Operation Hagen around Ypres, not to take Paris. The German offensives after Georgette were essentially massive diversionary attacks.

To answer the OP, a PoD at 2nd Marne is probably too late. The Germans could maybe cross the Marne and maybe even take Reims, which would improve their logistics locally, but at this point in 1918 they were too exhausted, and the allies had adopted countermeasures to their infiltration tactics. A PoD in Spring of 1918 is in my opinion a completely different story.
 
Wasn't the objective to take Reims? Even if they did win the battle, wouldn't the Germans have trouble with mobility and being able to quickly push through French lines?

The overall objective was to cause the Allies to shift forces from Flanders to the Chamin des Dames, thus opening up the opportunity for the Germans to launch their projected Operation Hagen around Ypres, not to take Paris. The German offensives after Georgette were essentially massive diversionary attacks.

Correct; the overall objective was to threaten Paris, I got it confused with other operations.
 
I think it is a toss-up: it gives the Central Powers a deeply needed morale boost and puts them farther south and west. There would probably be another strategic-level victory needed to win the war, probably near Ependay, Meaux, or Chateau-Thierrey. What it might do is open the door for a negotiated peace with the Central Powers keeping their Eastern victories and the Western Front becoming the bugbear. With the Second battle of the Piave River having already happened, it won't causs the collapse of Italy, but it will reinforce Austro-Hungarian morale somewhat and may cause the Piave to become a frontier. Belgium likely remains free, Luxembourg likely German along with Alsace-Lorraine, and Germany *may* agree to some sort of token reparations in exchange. UK is totally broke, France may go into open revolt, and perhaps AH still shatters like glass.
 
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