What if Germany was split up after WWI

Received picture from another universe

Wonder how an independent bavaria would look like? i´m happy to show you some photos from my trip to this other universe.
the gentleman in red is the the head of the inquisition, talking to some gebirgsschützen commandant

( actually, it is joseph cardinal ratzinger, head of the vatican´s department which has replaced the inquisition after they left the thumbscrew bussiness)
 
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LordKalvan said:
yeah, the Berlin wall went down just 15 years ago, just nothing compared to the stately progress of history :eek:

15 years is not much considering how far West Germany was ahead of East Germany.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Forget Wilson. The easiest way to do this is to have the Entente crush Germany before the US even starts paying attention. Total collapse around mid/late 1915.

I had a pretty detailed timeline on how this could happen. I'll see if I can dredge it up. If I remember right I ended up getting stuck on how the Ottomans would move if the war was looking a little worse for the Central Powers.
 
Admiral Matt said:
Forget Wilson. The easiest way to do this is to have the Entente crush Germany before the US even starts paying attention. Total collapse around mid/late 1915.

I had a pretty detailed timeline on how this could happen. I'll see if I can dredge it up. If I remember right I ended up getting stuck on how the Ottomans would move if the war was looking a little worse for the Central Powers.

I don't see how the Entente can crush Germany. Maybe Russia has much better officers in TTL, that is the only way I see it.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Well, from the perspective of what the Entente could do to crush Germany, I admit there isn't much to work with. But there is any easier way. I just have the Germans shoot themselves in the foot.

Essentially, they go with some of their earlier ideas for the 'Shlieffen Plan'. More troops on the French border instead of the Russian, and they violate the neutrality of the Netherlands along with that of Belgium and Luxemburg. You really have to look at the war close-up to see what a horrendous idea this is.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
I found the August part of my timeline. Take a peak.

This is based on two POD's: that Helmuth von Moltke suffers a heart attack on 10 June, 1914 and that Alfred von Schlieffen doesn't die in 1913. We also need to assume that he is in good health; physically and mentally(Schlieffen that is :)).

Schlieffen is asked to return as the German army's chief of the General Staff. Upon arriving, Old Alf discovers that Moltke has drastically altered his Plan for war with France and Russia. A full third of the troops assigned to the pincer move in northern France have been moved to defend in East Prussia and Alsace-Lorraine. Moltke's plan also suggests respecting Dutch neutrality in the hope that the British will stay out of the war.

Schlieffen has not had time to examine his late successor's reasons before the end of June, when the Archduke's assassination adds urgency to the situation. Though he is convinced that the original plan was sound, Alf knows that Moltke must have had reasons for changing it. So, instead of simply returning to the old version, he modifies Moltke's new one.

He grudgingly decides to leave the Netherlands alone, despite worries that the advance may be held up at the fortress city of Liege in Belgium. To deal with this, he assigns the German Second Army to take the city, while the First Army(the one intended to swing around Paris) will be held slightly back, to move through Holland should the advance be slowed in Belgium.

The forces on the french and russian borders are halved to bolster the attacking arm. This brings the attacking forces to 4/5 of the German army; as opposed to the 3/5 in OTL.

August 5: Germany launches an unsuccessful night attack on Liege. No change yet.

August 8: The French Army of Alsace strikes towards Mulhouse in Germany. They make good progress.

August 11: One of Liege's 12 forts falls. Mulhouse in Alsace falls to the French. Schlieffen is becoming impatient.

August 12: Austria-Hungary invades Serbia.

August 14: Two french armies strike into Lorraine. Outnumbered German troops are forced back, and barely manage to halt the advance once reinforcements arrive. Several counter-attacks fail. Schlieffen orders the First Army to invade Belgium from the southern end of the Netherlands. He is forced to assign limited forces to an invasion of Holland proper.

August 15: The First Army moves in the direction of Antwerp. The garrison of Liege, outflanked and already on the verge, surrenders.

World opinion shifts further against Germany.

August 16: The Belgian army is ordered to retreat to the fortified port of Antwerp. Schlieffen diverts troops from the First Army to hold the Belgians in place. To reinforce the critical army, he sends a large chunk of the German reserves; more than making up the difference.

Serbian troops force invading troops to retreat back over the Austrian border.

French advance units reach the Rhine before being driven back.

August 17: The Russian First and Second Armies enter East Prussia, where they face the vastly outnumbered Eighth Army. Schlieffen sends limited reinforcements.

August 19: Brussels is occupied.

August 20: Forces in East Prussia attempt an attack, but lack the numbers to do more than halt the Russian advance. The hesitant local commander, Prittwitz, is sacked and replaced by Hindenburg, with Ludendorff as his chief-of-staff.

British troops invade Kamerun.

August 21: A single French Army is diverted to face the unexpected direction of the German main attack. It delays German armies 1-3 near Namur, Belgium, but withdraws after taking massive losses.

August 22: French and German troops clash in the Ardennes. The French are decisively beaten, but morale remains high. They fall back so that their right flank rests on Verdun.

Two new French armies are hastily created to lead a counter-attack; the Sixth at Paris, and the Ninth near Verdun. The attack must be delayed due to the speed of the German advance, but Schlieffen continues to be unaware of the potential threat.

Ludendorff races most of the forces in East Prussia south in an attempt to defeat the Russian Second Army, while the First Army is to be distracted by an under-strength cavalry division.

August 23: An Austro-Hungarian offensive begins into Russian Poland.

August 24: The advance of the Russian Second Army is delayed in East Prussia, though not as successfully as was hoped

August 26: A German attempt to surround part of the BEF is beaten off, though at a high cost. The German First Army is finding it increasingly difficult to follow its marching orders; logistics have apparently been overestimated and the troops are suffering from the long marches. Still, Schlieffen demands that the First continue to press the BEF, which is in fighting retreat directly in "The Plan's" path.

Togoland falls to French and British troops.

At the battle of Tannenburg in East Prussia the Germans manage a solid victory against the Russian Second Army, which retreats. The attempted encirclement proves impossible, however; they simply do not have enough troops to do it.

August 28: German forces in East Prussia are forced to abandon their attack as the Russian Second Army approaches to join the First.

The Battle of Heligoland Bight proves costly to the German fleet.

August 29: Russian counter-attacks force Austrian troops back into Galicia.

The French Fifth Army strikes against the flank of the German First in an effort to aid the BEF. Totally unable to halt the German advance, it joins the British force as its fighting retreat passes south of Amiens.

August 31: The German Army reaches the limits of its ability to advance. It has retaken most of the lost German territory, including Mulhouse. The Fifth Army has surrounded Verdun, though there is no immediate prospect of surrender. The Second, Third, and Fourth Armies have all crossed the Marne River. The all-important First Army has ground to a halt within sight of the Seine.
 
One thing that changes in TTL is if the Allies do beat Germany decisively before the US can get involved is that there probably won't be a revolution in Russia in 1917.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Definately not.

My guess was that the Russians would stay firmly autocratic and annex Galicia from A-H and Memel and southern East Prussia from Germany. The French Republic would take Alsace-Lorraine and maybe the Saarland. The Dutch would be given some border areas from Germany like Belgium got. Serbia would take most of OTL Yugoslavia, but Montenegro would survive and gain parts of Bosnia and the Dalmatian Coast, so super-Serbia wouldn't change its name. As I said, I didn't know quite what would happen to the Ottomans.
 
Admiral Matt said:
Definately not.

My guess was that the Russians would stay firmly autocratic and annex Galicia from A-H and Memel and southern East Prussia from Germany. The French Republic would take Alsace-Lorraine and maybe the Saarland. The Dutch would be given some border areas from Germany like Belgium got. Serbia would take most of OTL Yugoslavia, but Montenegro would survive and gain parts of Bosnia and the Dalmatian Coast, so super-Serbia wouldn't change its name. As I said, I didn't know quite what would happen to the Ottomans.
A lot depends on the exact moment of an Entente break-through. The later it happens, the more the Allies will be looking for revenge against the Central Powers.
I am pretty sure that a Poland would be created: its Eastern borders would be quite difficult to envisage, given that Russia would be still a viable concern.
Serbia would be compensated with Bosnia (the major part of it) and Bulgarian Macedonia.
The Greeks are likely to go on fighting the Ottomans, and a lot depends on what kind of support they get. For sure the Russians would be with them, but this means that UK would try to keep up the Ottoman Empire a viable concern. A brokered up peace treaty, with the Russian gaining in the Caucasus, the Greeks getting Smyrna and its hinterland, and the Straits being internationalised? Looks a bit too punitive for the Ottomans, but it might go ahead like this. Italy will want a piece of meat in the Antalya region: might be just a protectorate, under nominal sovereignity of the Ottomans. Same for France (Syria and lebanon) and UK (Palestine and Iraq).
Italy should get a piece of Slovenia, and the Dalamatian coast (almost complete) as per the treaty of London.
AH is likely to be split in two states: Austria with Bohemia and a rump Slovenia, and Hungary with Croatia (what does not go to Serbia), but without Transilvania. One of these states might remain under the Habsburgs.
Under this scenario, a partition of Germany is quite possible, to punish the Prussians.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
The Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria may not necessarily even enter the war if the Central Powers start losing early.

There will absolutely not be a Poland created if the Russians are winning from the beginning. The Russians had the center of Poland, they'd either have to create a "Poland" that lacked pretty much all of Poland, or they would have to give up a large portion of their territory. The Russians didn't do that sort of thing. And anyway, the few times they set up puppet states, it was always as a prelude to annexation.

In general things will be less democratic. Some of the break-away German states might be republics, but all the bits of Austria-Hungary will be kingdoms. Colonies captured from Germany will simply become colonies of someone else, no mandates.
 
Admiral Matt said:
The Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria may not necessarily even enter the war if the Central Powers start losing early.

There will absolutely not be a Poland created if the Russians are winning from the beginning. The Russians had the center of Poland, they'd either have to create a "Poland" that lacked pretty much all of Poland, or they would have to give up a large portion of their territory. The Russians didn't do that sort of thing. And anyway, the few times they set up puppet states, it was always as a prelude to annexation.

In general things will be less democratic. Some of the break-away German states might be republics, but all the bits of Austria-Hungary will be kingdoms. Colonies captured from Germany will simply become colonies of someone else, no mandates.
It should be veeery early for OE and Bulgaria to stay out. I was assuming an Entente victory in late 1915 to mid 1916.

Actually, I was thinking of a kingdom of Poland created by the Russian under a Romanov grand-duke, to govern Eastern prussian lands annexed from Germany, and maybe Galicia (or part of it). Russia would retrocede Warsaw and some part of Eastern poland just to sweeten the pot (might be similar to OTL post-WW2 Poland - Russians always think in the same way :D )

Why do you think it would be less democratic than OTL? after all, OTL the period between the wars was pretty totalitaristic (and after WW2 it did not change much :eek: )
 
LordKalvan said:
Under this scenario, a partition of Germany is quite possible, to punish the Prussians.
Which would look great for Entente. One of the most sensible approach IMHO. Germany is made a pro-entente republic, and rump Prussia with severe military restrictions and reparations.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
"Why do you think it would be less democratic than OTL?"

The absence of the US from the peace talks. And I don't necessarily think it will be less totalitarian, just that the new states won't bother calling themselves republics. Also, Germany's colonies (and possibly the Ottoman losses) will simply be taken by the victors, none of this American-inspired talk of the new lands being merely temporary possessions - held until the locals were ready for self government.
 
Well, considering that I believe Wilson to be the (unvoluntary(?)) main culprit for the versailles treaty and ultimately WW2, peace talks without American presence would be refreshing and blissful.

For the democracy, btw, I would expect that there would be no big difference with OTL situation. Maybe there would be no Fascism in Italy if they get better satisfaction at the peace table. Bavaria and Austria would be conservative for sure, but democratic.

Russia would be totalitarian, maybe proto-Fascist. But in any case it would be an improvement compared with the Soviets of OTL and Stalin's purge.

The Ottoman Empire, if it survives, might surprise everyone with the first example of democracy in the region
 
Minimal changes to OTL

OK, I'm going on no changes to WW1, the armistice is still on 11/11/18 and the peace treaties go ahead much as before.

I seem to remember reading that there were elements in Bavaria who wanted independence after WWI, assume that they got their wish-possibly they might even unite with Austria. If it prospered then there might not be any desire at a later date for reunification. The rest of Europe reocgnises its independence as a way of countering any resurgent rump Germany and Bavaria doesn't suffer the military restrictions of the rump Germany (allowed a limited airforce, some heavy artillet and tanks)

Didn't the French get the right to occupy the Saar or Rhineland after WW1 as a way of ensuring they got their repreparations? Assume a slightly more enlightened French control of the region (I'm sure they they expolited it quite hard) which goes for a hearts and minds approach with the aim of creating a buffer state-even the small population wouldn't be an issue. At the end of their occupation (again going from memory, I'm sure they were allowed to occupy it for 15 years) the French allow a vote on the future (possibly stage managed) and the result is an independent 'Republic of the Rhine', heavily reliant on France, with a French Garrison at the republic's request in case the rump Germany tries to reclaim it. To really strengthen their hand the French allow it an airforce, tanks, etc.

I was going to argue for a British dominated independent Hanover (I think Churchill toyed with the idea of WW2) but can't come up with enough justification
 
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