What if Berlin becomes increasingly convinced that a general European war is inevitable in the medium-to- near term, its priority is land arms and that its colonies are not retainable and cannot contribute to victory in Europe in the anticipated event of British belligerency or very hostile neutrality?
Accordingly, like Napoleon with Louisiana, they decide to sell of territories that are unlikely to be held in wartime, for resources, like cash, gold or raw materials, that would be useful under wartime or blockade or prewar conditions.
Here are some thoughts on potential customers:
Netherlands for New Guinea and Pacific locations, possibly Sweden or Norway too, consider those guys for Togo or Kamerun or SW Afrika. Additional customer, for any in Africa – Portugal (but does Portugal have the cash?) Netherlands is most likely to have the cash, Denmark too, maybe Sweden, less so Norway (though Norway has shipping). Other customers- Japan for Pacific stuff, China Tsingtao (charge a ransom if you can get it paid). Alternatively, for African locations, or some of them, could be sold to Italy as Bismarck is once rumored to have suggested. Especially East Africa.
To ensure payment, from distant customers, insist on gold or neutral hard currency, that could not be taxed or requisitioned easily in wartime. Nearby, adjacent, customers, like Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Italy are the ideal customers, because payment can come in the form of essential goods. Those countries produce many articles of value to Germany in wartime, export labor (Italy), or can reimport materials (esp. the Dutch).
Could there be any potential affirmative interest on the part of any of these powers if approached with a sudden offer? Any sense of trepidation or danger in the countries given the offer? Any downside for Germany? Also, with selling to adjacent minor powers, it leaves open the possibility of a re-purchase. Now handing overseas interests to others does also make them less willing to fight on Germany’s side if Germany goes to war with Britain, because it will increase their vulnerable assets.
Close to contiguous customers, almost as good – Greece (but can they pay?) , Montenegro? Nah – Bulgaria, nah, cause they’re wanted as a fighting ally. Same w/ Ottomans, although it has a semi-contiguity. Romania? Spain? Some trade could continue via Italy, same but less so with Portugal. Spain not in the market though.
Which neutrals did Germans in spring 1914 think had a prospect of being on their side? Or, which neutrals might at least be willing to pay decent money for any German colonies?
Italy?
Bulgaria?
Ottomans?
Sweden?
Norway?
Denmark?
Netherlands?
Romania?
Greece?
Spain?
USA?
Japan?
China?
--the most conceivable deal, relatively compatible with the buyer’s and seller’s interests and capabilities – and with the buyer in position geographically to take possession, would be a sale of German Pacific and Tsingtao to Netherlands. If the Dutch buy it, the territory can be administered from the DEI and Batavia. The landmasses/populations involved are not too enormous. New Guinea and the Pacific territories would form a contiguous zone with the DEI, with only German Samoa and Tsingtao as outliers.
Estimates of the value of German colonies vary.
In general, the overseas empire is considered a white elephant, but there are often alleged exceptions which were "the profitable colony". If you add up all the exceptions, half the empire might turn a profit.
I've variously heard that Nauru (with its phosphates), Togo (with its tropical produce), Samoa (with I don't know what, but maybe coconut meat/copra horsefeed?) were profitable ones.
Elsewhere I had heard Tanganyika had turned a profit, or if not, it was at least a well-run colony. Likewise Tsingtao may not have been profitable for the Germans, I think Japanese merchants did best, but it certainly was an "improved" property with great infrastructure that would "stage" well for any interested buyer.
Bottom line. Who might be interested buyers. If war and blockade have started or are imminent, how can Germany be sure to get paid? If the Germans have two years, 1 year, 6 months, 6 weeks or 1 week to do a liquidation sale, what deal would they try to make, and with whom?