Nobody has mentioned what Britain would do. They won't operated in a vacuum either. They will have a trained bomber force earlier and would hit Germany soon. The most profitable course for Germany is to switch to the Mediterranean and take Malta and harass the British throughout North Africa.
The Axis can never take Egypt or break into the Middle East due to logistics and RN superiority, but with German help the Brits will have a much harder time driving the Italians back in 1940. Who knows, maybe Tobruk never falls, which makes the Axis forces that much harder to deal with when Rommel comes around.
The extra 1,000+ planes and pilots will definitely help the Luftwaffe, which hopefully prevent the "lone warrior" mentality that drove Goering to overfly his best pilots, preventing them from teaching others. Sure you don't have individuals then racking up massive totals, but I'd rather have a solid force of good pilots than a few excellent pilots. Overall German benefits more, as it cannot replace men and equipment like the British can, who shrugged of the losses easier than the German. Also, by not bombing British cities, the Allies lose the moral highground that they achieved in American sympathies. Not only that, but if Hitler doesn't break the taboo, then it become harder for the British to justify their bombing campaign, if and when it occurs.
The campaign in Russia is unlikely to change appreciably. The air war in the West is going to be the big change. If North Africa goes better for the Axis, which if they are remotely intelligent it will when Malta is gone and the LW is stronger in Libya, then the British are going to have to focus harder on that theater, depriving over sectors, like the Pacific. If and when the Americans get involved, the LW is able to put up a tougher resistance, and the losses that are prevented here are likely to improve quality. The war probably is still lost, but the Germans get a slightly less tarnished reputation and the Allies look worse in the world's eyes because of the bombing campaign (It's really hard to justify without "But they did it first!")
More Allied deaths on all fronts, but primarily in the air war. It stays contested longer, but the outcome likely stays the same, with interesting divergences....like perhaps the North African campaign lasts longer with stronger Axis supply lines. This might be a big deal to the Sicily and Italian campaign too.