What if Germany doesn't enter WWI

Let's see:
1. Russia orders only a partial mobilization aimed at A-H and warns France that it will not initiate a war against Germany.
2. France and Germany don't mobilize.
3. A-H still attacks Serbia while retaining forces to face Russian and Italian threats. The offensive goes badly. Germany and Russia pressure A-H to accept a peace conference.
4. Despite some face saving guarantees from Serbia, A-H comes out of the limited war with much diminished status.
5. War having been averted, German moderation reduces tensions in Europe.
6. International competition focus switches even more to colonial competition.
7. Germany seeks an understanding with GB to isolate France. Germany agrees not to build more than half of British tonnage in each type of warships.
8. All the while German economic power rises.
 
Let's see:
1. Russia orders only a partial mobilization aimed at A-H and warns France that it will not initiate a war against Germany.
2. France and Germany don't mobilize.
3. A-H still attacks Serbia while retaining forces to face Russian and Italian threats. The offensive goes badly. Germany and Russia pressure A-H to accept a peace conference.
4. Despite some face saving guarantees from Serbia, A-H comes out of the limited war with much diminished status.
5. War having been averted, German moderation reduces tensions in Europe.
6. International competition focus switches even more to colonial competition.
7. Germany seeks an understanding with GB to isolate France. Germany agrees not to build more than half of British tonnage in each type of warships.
8. All the while German economic power rises.
No Russia still attack AH to protect Serbia. War start without Germany France Britain. I switch Romania and Bulgaria sides.
 
Let's see:
1. Russia orders only a partial mobilization aimed at A-H and warns France that it will not initiate a war against Germany.
2. France and Germany don't mobilize.
3. A-H still attacks Serbia while retaining forces to face Russian and Italian threats. The offensive goes badly. Germany and Russia pressure A-H to accept a peace conference.
4. Despite some face saving guarantees from Serbia, A-H comes out of the limited war with much diminished status.
5. War having been averted, German moderation reduces tensions in Europe.
6. International competition focus switches even more to colonial competition.
7. Germany seeks an understanding with GB to isolate France. Germany agrees not to build more than half of British tonnage in each type of warships.
8. All the while German economic power rises.

The main game would still be alliances.

Having been savaged by Russia with Germany consciously choosing to stand back and watch, Austria-Hungary would (even if not fairly) regard this as a betrayal. With Italy to the west, Russia to the east, and the now with a Balkans squarely under the Russian sphere of influence, they'll begin looking beyond Berlin for security while they restructure and reform themselves. The blame game plays out in the Habsburg empire, with all the turbulence that entails. The rapid economic growth of the early 1900s is battered, but not destroyed. It goes without saying that this is still a far better fate than OTL.

Germany has to awkwardly focus on colonial competition while not antagonizing Britain, which is like slathering yourself in honey while not attracting bears. Downsizing the navy is obviously the easiest way to earn British tolerance, but this would be actively scorned in an era of jingoism that hasn't been vented in a world war. France is still growing stronger, and Russia is now much stronger. The window wherein Germany can reliably win a war against the both of them is closing. They can still feel that sense of international isolation that's haunted them since the debacle in Morocco, and will be hunting for more friends.

Italy is isolated. It isn't feeling confident enough to take Austria one on one, but has now forfeited its alliance with Germany. France is still feared, and the government is as thirsty for colonial glory as ever.

Russia is ascendant. Nicholas II and the pan-slavic movement are riding high, which falsely gives the Tzar the impression he can go on as absolute ruler and tell all those pesky liberals to suck it. Russia continues industrializing, and the forces of revolution and reform have to wait for another disaster.

Serbia still glows with ambition, especially now that it has even more grievances against its hated northern neighbour. The peace is ironically as cursed in Belgrade as it is in Vienna, for the dream-conflict of Russia liberating the south slavs has been denied. The Balkans are probably a bit more peaceful, now that they're all under the umbrella of Russia. This effectively means that the "Balkan powder keg" is defused (as any Balkan conflict can only draw in the attention of Russia), but all the other flashpoints of Europe remain.
 
*Germany defuses situation by not offering blank cheque to AH
*AH agrees to Serbian counterproposal for all but one of its demands under pressure from Russia
*UK and Germany divide Portugese colonies between themselves starting with Angola and Mozambique. Eventually, UK takes Madiera, Diu, Daman, Dadra, Hagar Neveli, and Goa while Germany takes East Timor, the Azores (with provisions that except in times of war between them that the UK could resupply there), Africa's St. John the Baptist Fort in Dahomey, and Macau with the predetermined divisions of Mozambique and Angola in place.
*Russia continues to industrialize rapidly as they develop technogically into the late 1920s
***AH has internal crisis that leads to bleeding edge of war as Austrians and Hungarians sound off circa 1928, may tip into global war especially if Russian crisis occurs about this time
 
IOTL Japan sent an ultimatum to Germany asking for their far east territories. I don't see why they'd be afraid of doing the same thing with Russia in this timeline.
Japan kicked Russia's ass in the Russo-Japanese war just a few years earlier, and that was with no allies to help them. This time Russia's navy will be completely tied up in the west and Japan will run roughshod over Siberia if they join Austria.

Edit: OTL is proof that Japan wanted to expand their empire by force at this time, and in this timeline they won't reasonably have the option of taking Tsingtao etc.

I think it's reasonable that they would join.

Doesn't sound too likely. At least without the UK for some reason going to war with Russia or at least being really pissed off at them.

Taking a single relatively lightly defended and very isolated city and peninsula is one thing. Trying to seize all of the Russian far east or even most of it is a very different one.

One is effectively a single small scale operation that is guaranteed to end quickly and with light losses. The other is a full scale war necessitating the long term deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops over vast distances requiring massive logistical and financial support.

Japan in OTL in WW1 played it fairly smart. There initial involvement was a short and relatively inexpensive campaign that netted them Tsinstao and a few islands. The rest of their involvement consisted mostly of a relatively small naval force in the European theater. Japan more then anything else benefited from WW1 by selling the Allies war material of various sorts. Traditionally Japan had purchased the majority of it's weaponry from European or to a lesser degree American companies. In WW1 they actually managed to reverse that and sold Ariska rifles to the Brits.

Basically you'd need something more along the lines of a WW2 Imperial Japan style rabidly expansionistic government.
 
I think the author mixes up a few incidents. For actual reference, search "moottorikuunari Peters" from this source: https://www15.uta.fi/kirjasto/nelli/verkkoaineistot/yht/mechelin.pdf

So you're saying that someone read about the John Grafton and the Peter, then tied together the disbanding of the Voimaliitto in 1906 (and perhaps other events in Finland the years after the Russo-Japanese war) and the Russian authorities' efforts to go against Finnish activists and the jäger movement during WWI, and then decided that this all is proof that the Japanese authorities must have provided information to the Russians to help them hunt down Finnish nationalists in the WWI years?

Perhaps you're right. We can say that the sheer creativity inherent in that chain of thought (it's certainly original research) reminds us again not to take all information added to Wikipedia at face value...
 

BooNZ

Banned
At this point, this has grown way past me. It's not something I am very familiar with. Congrats Moore and Borya for your good work. I plan to write a different book instead; my original idea was the Halt in Belgrade leading to a general peace. Thanks everyone for answering my question.
Your original idea could be achived with a relatively minor POD as late as July 1914, including:
- Conrad given an free hand to act immediately, but upon reflection is restrained by his political masters upon reaching Belgrade.
- British diplomacy publically discloses disinterest in Baltic affairs, which gives pause for any Franco-Russian support for Serbian resistance.
- Germany could work with Britiain to restrain the escalation of the war - I could imagine a halt at Belgrade being acceptable to British interests
- French hawks are more firmly restrained from encouraging Russian belligerence by the newly elected dovish French majorities
You would need an earlier POD for the decision makers of A-H to actually want any part of Serbian territory or populations.

Any significant POD involving Bismarck and/or Wilhelm circa 1890 can go almost anywhere in 25 years...

*AH agrees to Serbian counterproposal for all but one of its demands under pressure from Russia
...and soon after Serbia renegs on all the other demands, since that 'one demand' was the only means those other demands could be enforced...
 
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