What if Germany does not provide unconditional backing to Austria in 1908 Bosnian Crisis?

If Germany hadn't stood firmly by Austria over 1908 Bosnia Crisis, war might have broken out then

  • yes

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • no

    Votes: 11 84.6%

  • Total voters
    13

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
In OTL Serbia and Russia howled in protest at the Austro-Hungarian annexation of Bosnia-Hercegovina in 1908 [and Italy muttered in protest?]. The Serbs did a mobilization and the Austrians and Germans told them to de-mob, "or else". Whereupon the Serbs stood down.

If Germany did not throw its diplomatic weight fully behind Austria-Hungary, how might the situation have evolved differently, if at all.

I'm not sure what the Serbs were demanding, either parts of Bosnia, or Ottoman territory to the south "in compensation". It seems to me that absent big power support up to and including mobilization, Austria-Hungary would never concede any directly occupied territory to Serbia, and Serbia could lift territory off the Ottomans only through war...and war in 1908 might not have gone as we'll for them as the Balkan wars.

Austro-German solidarity inflamed Russian nationalism and Pan-Slavic settlement. The Russians felt scored against. However, in the circumstances of 1908, with a lost war and an attempted revolution in recent memory, Russia backed down and advised Serbia to do the same, ending the crisis for the moment.

If Germany had *not* taken such an unequivocal stand, might saber ratting between the Austro-Hungarians on the one hand and the Russians and Serbs on the other, have kept going and escalated into a conflict too big to be contained, resulting in an early WWI?

In this instance at least, would we be wrong to think the Germans of 1908, with their "peace through strength" policy actually won "peace in their time"?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
IMO : No

I don't think a war would have occurred at that point, if Germany hadn't 'backed' A-H with 'unconditional support'. in that case it would - most likely - have supported the idea of an(other) conference to settle the disputes involved which were quite a few :
souverignity over Bosnia-Herzegowina, Sandjak of Novi Patar, bulgarian independance, Dardanelles

All (more or less) items already of the Berlin treaty of 1878.

A-H, left on his own and internationally isolated under the 'Great Powers' of the time would have most likely complied to such a conference. There were quite some points and 'agreements' prior to this especially with Russia, that would have supported its position.
Russia, at that moment also isolated, as France had made it clear, that this matter did NOT invoke their alliance, with the just lost russo-japanes war under its belt and without much means to support Serbia in a war or wage war itself against A-H would also have complied to.
Serbia, without russian support and perhaps even pressed by Russia (a war most between Serbia and A-H alone, most likely lost by Serbia, would have made things even worse for Russia) would have also to comply, whatever might be decided on such a conference.

Britain didn't want any change of the situation of the straits to the Black Sea or the eastern mediterranian (means no russian control over the straits). It just wanted to keep things quiet in that area and as they were (also regarding any possible italian claims there).
And France at that time and matter just followed Britain.

IMO the outcome of such a conference wouldn't have been essentially different from what happened OTL.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If instead, Austro-Serb tensions spin out for longer without leading to war, there could be several consequences. Anti-German sentiment in Russia might be less without the Germans so blatantly putting their foot down. Perhaps the Russians have more time to grow skeptical over their Entente with Britain and get to focus on the fact that Britain would not support straits revision.

In a longer crisis where the disposition of Ottoman territory is being talked about, perhaps the Italians could take the moment to occupy Libya for themselves as "compensation". I'm not sure if the Italians were ready at the time or not.

Even if longer term alliances remain basically similar, perhaps Austria-Hungary would push for staff talks to figure out what the Germans would actually do in a European war. That greater curiosity could lead them to conclude the Germans would go west in a war, leaving Austria alone to handle Russia for an uncomfortably long time. Austria-Hungary may be more careful later, regardless of whatever promises Germany later makes.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
... ... ...

Well I have voted for 'No War', but after some thinking about ... history often enough didn't go the 'reasonable' way.

What about such an alternative :
  • Hötzendorf finds some support for his imperialistic goals (which went as far taking Serbia, Montenegro (at least partially), Albania, Kosovo and northern Greece down to Saloniki)
  • In Serbia Pasic goes more aggressiv with comming to an agreement with Montenegro, that they have some 'common interests' - in dividing the Sandjak between them (maybe as part of plan of him to unite or 'confederate' the two of them later)
  • Pasic might also think/believe/hope, that Russia will back it if not by military means, then on the negotiation tables - afterwards.
What I propose is, that Serbia together with Montenegro march into the Sandjak sometime around the change 1908/1909, before A-H- and the Ottoman Empire (OE) come to their agreement of 26.Feb. 1909 (A-H paid 50 mill krones and left the Sandjak to the Ottomans).

What causes a 'local'(?) war between A-H and Serbia-Montenegro. Localization might be due to :
  • A-H reassures Russia of its support for Dardanells rights despite british opposition for later negotiations
  • France at that time doesn't relly have much interests in the eastern mediterrianian, as it has drawn it lines with Italy already in some secret agreement before (that's OTL !)
  • London and Berlin get reassured by both war parties, that they don't intend (at least at the moment, what London and berlin doesn't have to know) to challange or beat on the OE
Therefore the other "Big Powers" are sitting at the ropes, watching the fight while supporting diplomatically the independance of Bulgaria (what however remains a 'wild card' for me) and the connection of Crete to Greece, what checks in a way the OE to stay out of the fray, as they are also quite busy with internal struggles at that time.

For the war (I am nowhere an military expert) I could imaginate :
  • some inconclusive clashes and skirmishes at the upper Drina and in southwestern Herzegowina with some gains for Serbia-Montenegro in the beginning
  • a winter battle around Belgrade on the frozen Danube and/or Save
  • after the 'full power' of A-H gets mobilized they might drive the serbians down the Morava-valley as well as marching back into the Sandjak and northern Montenegro in april/may/june 1909 with a crippling defeat of the serbian army at Nish, while some austrian marine units advance to Cettinje after bombarding and taking the harbor of Cattaro
  • (as said : I am no military expert at all and have no knowledge of the strenghs and capabilities of the involed troops of A-H, Serbia and Montenegro of this time. These are only guesses.)
Lets assume in may/june 1909 the King of Montenegro gets captured and the serbian goverment is fleeing. Before Hötznedorf now can run loose over the rest of OE in europe the Big Powers, esp. Britain and Germany kick in and stop Vienna, sensing kind of a 'mutual alliance' between A-H and Russia regarding the OE and the straits, where Britain and Germany don't want any changes.

Another 'Big Conference' to settle the war :
  • A-H is declared winner by military force and gets Bosnia, Herzegowina, Serbia and Montenegro.
But
  • they are obliged to form these gains into an autonomous part of their empire, therefore forcing A-H to a Trialism solution.
And
  • they have to pay the OE the 50 mills krones (or perhaps more ?)
And
  • to 'safeguard' the treaty as well as the OE from further agression Albania and the Kosovo get an international (?) 'peace-keepers' occupation (perhaps ... Italy ?, as it stayed out of the war ;-) )


The Great War is avoided, but ... WOW what a sky full of butterfies for further developments :
? Alliance between Russia and A-H-J (Austria-Hungary-Jugoslavia)
? german-british rapproachment
? loosening of franco-russian alliance
? what kind of Balkan-wars this way

(btw has this : alliance between Russia and A-H after 1900 before WW I ever been object of an AL ?)
 
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