-- Part #1 of 4 --
For years I've been interested in possible outcomes of the European Campaign in WW2 in the admittedly unlikely event that Germany conquered the USSR. So let's take that as our starting point. Let's say that Germany rearms early & intervenes in the Winter War, or it successfully foments revolt among the ethnic population of the USSR that spreads to the military-- or it employs amphibious assaults along the Baltic seacoast to speed the advance of
HGN, seizes Polkovo Airport in an airborne assault, gets enough airlifted infantry in position to take Leningrad before the city is on a defensive footing, & then swings its
PzGp 4 east to take Moscow. Or all of the above.
(The idea about amphib assaults along the Baltic coast to speed up HGN was suggested to me by a poster named Merlin. Wanted to make sure I gave credit where it was due.)
Whatever's left of Russia sues for peace by mid-1943, before the Western Allies are ready to land in France. This is our POD, so it isn't open to debate. Strange things happen in war. This is one of 'em.
The orthodox answer, of course, is that no matter what happens with D-Day, by the time the US develops the atomic bomb in Aug. 1945 the Nazis are finished. So let's take a closer look at that.
I take it for granted that Germany would have disbanded much of its inf. With the USSR gone it wouldn't be easy to find a use for 'em all. The
panzers, motor. inf., &
LW might even expand, but the "leg" inf. would be relegated to manning defensive fortifications along whatever frontier existed with the rest of the USSR. Supported by artillery, strong mobile formations, & some
LW. Defensive troops deployed in the West might be doubled, or even tripled.
Even if Germany hasn't conquered the oil-rich trans-Caucasus by this time, under the terms of the armistice they insist on it. And they get it. So by standing down the large warships of the
KM, which are useless anyway, they have the fuel to support 24-30 fully equipped
pzdivs. & 30-40 motor. inf. divs. A third of these are employed as reserves on the Russian Front. The rest are put in France & Germany.
The Axis History Factbook, which I've found to be pretty reliable, gives the following German deployments for the period in question, by division :
Germany East West Norw Finl SE Afr Italy
May 1943 3 185 56 13 7 11 9 2
June 1943 5 187 53 13 7 13 0 4
July 1943 6 188 52 13 7 15 0 6
Aug. 1943 5 189 46 13 7 17 0 14
Sept. 1943 2 188 51 13 7 19 0 16
Oct. 1943 3 186 52 13 7 20 0 18
Nov. 1943 4 177 53 13 7 22 0 23
So let's say the Russian armistice goes into effect in late July or the 1st half of Aug. 1943.
(I know, the Allies all agreed to a policy of no separate peace-- but in this scenario the Russkies are getting their asses handed to 'em. So they do it anyway.)
Combat losses on the Eastern stop. The Russo-German rail capacity could deploy around 10 or 12 divisions per month. So the redeployment looks something like this :
East Chng West Chng Norw Finl SE Afr Italy
Aug. 1943 184 -5 46 13 7 17 0 14
Sept. 1943 174 -10 56 +5 13 7 19 0 16
Oct. 1943 162 -12 62 +10 13 7 20 0 18
Nov. 1943 150 -12 74 +12 13 7 20 0 23
[Once we finish stripping the Russian Front we'll draw down in Finland-- or we could do it 1st. Either way. The Norway garrison will remain intact to defend vs landings there by the Brits.]
By Nov. we have nearly two thirds more troops in France than in OTL, while in this example the totals in Italy remain the same. In reality we might build up in Italy even faster, because the Allies landed in Sicily on 10 July. Whether or not the Western Allies have warning about the coming Russian armistice, the Sicily op will probably go forward. And Sicily under these conditions is practically indefensible, so Axis troops are evacuated on schedule by 17 Aug.
-- more to follow --
-- please hold comments until the whole thing gets posted --