Augenis is right. Ribbentrop did threatened Juozas Urbšys, but Lithuania willing surrendered the ancient Baltic city after deciding that it would be better to be on Germany’s side. This decision was based not on a pro-German leaning on the part of the Lithuanian government, but out of fear of either Polish aggression or Soviet aggression. The Poles had desired to absorb all of Lithuania into their enlarged Polish state ever since it was established in 1919 and even invaded and annexed the historical Lithuanian capital, Vilnius (Vilnia). The point to be made here is that faced with the choice of a resurgent German power or eventual submission to the Soviet Union (or possible Polish aggression) the Lithuanians chose to appease the Germans. The lost of the city of Memel to Germany (which was a German populated city) was better than complete annexation by Poland or the Soviets. In the scenario that I have mapped out, the Lithuanians, as well as other East European nations, faced with an impotent France and an uninterested Britain would have had not choice other than align themselves with Germany. During this period (1940-1941) the possibility that Britain would have suffered a political crisis due to Chamberlain’s death from cancer, the British Conservative Party would have been divided in the fall of 1940 and elections might have been called. Its impossible to predict whether or not the Conservatives could have retain control over the government or if the Labor party would replace them, but the most likely outcome would have been a victory by a weakened and divided Conservative party.
At the same time, France would have been crippled politically. I suggested that the worst case scenario for France would have been the descend into civil war, but most likely the political situation would have resulted in political paralysis. The Socialists and Communists would have advocated a Franco-Soviet alliance, but this would have been unrealistic given the fact that France was surrounded and isolated in Western Europe. Those most likely outcome would have been have been a government made up of a coalition of Republicans, Nationalist and supported by the French Army, which would have sort a non-aggression pact with Germany, giving Hitler what he wanted–a free hand to invade the Soviet Union without fear of France attacking Germany in the west. This would have set up a situation in which Germany and her Eastern European allies, could attack the Soviet Union in 1941, not from the 1941 boarders in Our Time Line, but from the 1939 boarders.